New Kuwaiti Assembly will likely clash with government

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Fiscal Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince

Significance This followed parliamentary polls on December 5, a full four-year term after the last elections in November 2016. The emir had delayed naming a new cabinet after his ascension, pending the elections. Impacts As tribes become more oppositional, there is a possibility the government could back reform of an electoral system that strengthens them. Opposition groups will call for a transparent body independent of the interior ministry to decide on qualification of candidates. If oil prices begin to recover next year and vaccines are swiftly deployed, parliament could step up efforts to delay fiscal reform. The choice of ruling family ministers could give indications of likely future succession to the aging emir and crown prince.

Jordan’s king will face rising popular pressures

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
House Arrest ◽  
Security Services ◽  
Official Position ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Video Material

Significance Former Crown Prince Hamzah was placed under house arrest on April 3, as 20 other people were detained. His release of audio and video material that undermined the official position embarrassed the government, and the recent public reconciliation leaves his status unclear. Impacts Despite the aspersions cast on Riyadh, Gulf states will send further financial aid to boost stability and compete for influence. Another government reshuffle and further changes within the security services are likely. Relations between Abdullah and Hamzah will remain troubled, as the latter seeks to remain relevant in case an opportunity presents itself.

Colombia unrest offers no quick solutions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Fiscal Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
International Reputation ◽  
The Government

Significance Large demonstrations on May 28 resulted in several deaths in Cali; President Ivan Duque deployed troops there the next day. Although that appears, temporarily, to have restored some order, talks between the government and protest leaders have stalled. Impacts The government still plans fiscal reform of some kind, but any proposals now risk inflaming unrest. Prolonged accusations of human rights abuses and impunity could damage Colombia’s international reputation. Fear of socialism and Venezuela’s struggles offer the government a powerful electoral weapon against the left.

Battle to stop Ecuador re-election reform intensifies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Election Reform ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Decision Making

Subject The outlook for constitutional reform and presidential re-election. Significance Since the government announced its intention to revise the constitution to allow President Rafael Correa to seek re-election in 2017, the opposition has resisted the move. Various parties and coalitions have attempted to call a referendum on the issue using mechanisms in the 2008 constitution to enable greater public participation in political decision-making. The government has used its influence over public institutions to block a referendum, fearing defeat at the polls. The outcome of the conflict remains unclear six months on from when the proposal was first announced. Impacts The fragmentation of the opposition will bolster government attempts to rebuff demands for a referendum. Denying the public the opportunity to vote on constitutional reform will undermine the legitimacy of the president and government. The economic fallout from low oil prices will complicate the government's political situation and allow for opposition gains.

Saudi subsidy reforms unlikely to spark major protests

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Oil ◽  
Basic Part ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political impact of subsidy reform. Significance Saudi Arabia introduced its first major cut to energy subsidies in January, leading to a rise in petrol, diesel, fuel oil, natural gas and electricity prices. Further cuts will be necessary to avert a fiscal crisis -- but with cheap energy seen as a basic part of the social contract between the government and the population, such measures are expected to have wide-reaching political repercussions. Impacts A decision to reverse subsidy cuts in the face of protest would undercut government credibility and reduce the prospect of further reforms. Yet persisting with subsidy reforms could damage government legitimacy and political capital among the youth and lower classes. Successful reforms will improve the long-term economic outlook, and the succession prospects of Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Pressure will mount on Mexico's external sector

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Growth Firms ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Sector

Subject Mexico's external accounts. Significance The plunge in global oil prices represents a significant blow to the Mexican economy, particularly in terms of fiscal revenue. However, a negative impact is also showing in Mexico's external accounts. Moreover, manufacturing exports are contracting, partly due to problems in the automotive sector. Mexico's floating exchange rate is acting as an effective cushion, and its level of international reserves remains comfortable. Nonetheless, the growing external deficits may spark greater uncertainty about the economy's prospects. Impacts If market confidence deteriorates further, the government may activate the 65-billion-dollar Flexible Credit Line that it has with the IMF. The peso should rebound from the all-time nominal lows it has reached, but only after US growth firms up and the oil price stabilises. Despite the increasing external deficits, the government will not introduce protectionist measures and the opposition will not demand them.

Saudi economic reform will be gradual

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Community ◽  
Special Treatment ◽  
Asset Sales ◽  
Royal Family ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Spending Cuts

Significance The government has recently taken some modest steps to rein in the budget deficit, including cuts in energy subsidies, and has promised to improve disclosure of its fiscal performance, but is preparing further measures to put the economy on a sustainable long-term footing. Impacts Subsidy cuts and the prospect of VAT could cause popular resentment because they will affect ordinary citizens more severely than the elite. These measures will widen the income gap and, in the longer run, could increase pressure for more accountable forms of government. Land and other asset sales could generate controversy if businesses associated with the royal family are receiving special treatment. Capital spending cuts will create anger among the business community if projects linked to the deputy crown prince are protected. A prolonged fiscal squeeze could stoke tensions within the royal family and damage the credibility of the deputy crown prince.

Kazakh policymakers seek growth in non-oil sectors

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Construction Industry ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Field ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large State ◽  
East And West ◽  
The Government ◽  
Improve Access ◽  
Debt Levels

Significance The modest GDP increase is attributed to government support for the economy as well as steadier oil prices and the launch of production at the Kashagan oil field. Low debt levels and substantial reserves give the government scope to invest in non-oil sectors. Impacts The large state role in the economy magnifies the risks of policy mismanagement. Continued investment in infrastructure will help position the country as a bridge between east and west. The Nurly Zhol programme will improve access to affordable houses but could have a distorting effect on the construction industry.

Mexican fiscal consolidation steady despite oil price

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject The outlook for fiscal consolidation. Significance The significant drop in oil prices should not derail the fiscal consolidation trajectory mapped by President Enrique Pena Nieto's administration, which envisages that the debt/GDP ratio should stabilise by 2017. The fiscal hole opened by reduced oil prices has been compensated with greater taxation income and one-off revenues. Impacts Defying expectations, the oil price plunge did not push the government into an overtly contractionary fiscal correction. An arguably much-needed simplification of the cumbersome taxation regime will not take place due to the government's pledge not to alter it. Loose monetary policy from the autonomous central bank has worked in tandem with the government's fiscal stance.

Costa Rica gridlock to compound Solis's unpopularity

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Face ◽  
Opposition Control

Subject Outlook for the Solis administration during the second half of its term. Significance President Luis Guillermo Solis is currently Latin America's least popular president, due largely to his perceived inability to legislate in the face of opposition obstruction. While economic performance has shown signs of strengthening over the course of this year, this has done little for the government's standing. Impacts Opposition control of key positions in the legislature will exacerbate government challenges. Uncertainty about fiscal reform will weigh heavily on the growth outlook. Low international oil prices will continue to act as a deflationary driver.

Jihadists will slow stabilisation of Yemen's south

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Central Government ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Actors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Government Authority

Significance The bombing represents the latest setback to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s efforts to stabilise southern Yemen and reinstall the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. ISG is just one of a number of sub-state actors that have been empowered by the conflict and that will seek to challenge central government authority. Impacts Insecurity in Aden will deal a blow to the legitimacy of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. A major setback in the south will reflect badly on the reputation of Saudi Defence Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Reconstruction efforts in southern Yemen will place increased long-term strain on the Saudi budget in particular. Southern Yemen could emerge as a key battleground in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad.

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