Costa Rica gridlock to compound Solis's unpopularity

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Face ◽  
Opposition Control

Subject Outlook for the Solis administration during the second half of its term. Significance President Luis Guillermo Solis is currently Latin America's least popular president, due largely to his perceived inability to legislate in the face of opposition obstruction. While economic performance has shown signs of strengthening over the course of this year, this has done little for the government's standing. Impacts Opposition control of key positions in the legislature will exacerbate government challenges. Uncertainty about fiscal reform will weigh heavily on the growth outlook. Low international oil prices will continue to act as a deflationary driver.

Solis faces lame duck presidency in Costa Rica

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The Political ◽  
Fiscal Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lame Duck ◽  
Second Year ◽  
A Priority ◽  
Media Reform

Subject The political travails of President Luis Guillermo Solis. Significance President Luis Guillermo Solis has suffered a series of political setbacks. He enters his second year in office weakened just as he needs to negotiate the passage of fiscal reform through the legislature. In addition, Costa Rica's economic performance remains lacklustre. Impacts The resignation of the minister for the presidency will expose Solis to direct attacks from the opposition. Media reform will cease to be a priority, with Solis seeking to distance himself from botched draft legislation. Growth for 2015 will remain around 3.5% despite government attempts to boost economic activity.

Costa Rica fiscal reform looks doomed to fail

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Fiscal Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Increases

Subject Fiscal reform protests. Significance President Carlos Alvarado is facing his most severe test since taking office in May, with his efforts to pass a long-awaited fiscal reform sparking strikes and protests across the country. Although the government has initiated a dialogue with trade unions, sustained opposition means that the fiscal reform is likely to be watered down substantially. Impacts Transport disruption will affect regional trade, compounding the transit problems caused by unrest in Nicaragua. The national strike’s success may encourage more such actions in future, potentially over public-sector wage increases. Alvarado’s weakness will increase the dominance of rival political parties in the legislature.

Russia and oil have mixed impact in Caucasus

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Factors ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Subject Economic turmoil in the South Caucasus. Significance Economic performance has been affected by two major external factors: turmoil in Russia, which remains a significant economic partner, and declining oil prices. While lower imported fuel bills are positive for Armenia and Georgia, there are second-round negative implications, through the impact on economic activity in Russia. Impacts Lower oil prices will lead to some cuts on infrastructure spending in Azerbaijan but these will be limited. Armenia will suffer the most from the Russian turmoil, but the positive impact of domestic factors will prevail in 2015. Georgia's more diversified economic links make it more resilient to Russian shocks.

Omani debt may face further downgrades

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Load Resistance ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Fiscal Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Fiscal Reforms ◽  
Speed Up

Subject Outlook for Omani debt. Significance Over the last two years, all three major credit rating agencies have cut Oman’s sovereign debt rating to junk status (meaning a rating below BBB-), most recently Moody’s on March 5. This has happened despite strengthening oil prices and positive internal developments, because of a growing debt load, resistance to fiscal reform and governance concerns. Impacts Funds forced to sell Omani bonds, due to their junk status, will buy BBB-rated sovereigns. A pause in Omani bond issuance could raise market demand for similarly rated sovereign issues in the region, such as Bahrain. Negatively rated oil-exporting sovereigns may speed up fiscal reforms to avoid Oman’s fate.

Oil demand lifts prices, but further upside is limited

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Price Increase ◽  
Common Interest ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainable Technologies ◽  
Financial Position ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Common ◽  
Oil Demand

Significance Rising Chinese imports and falling inventories point to demand exceeding supply at present. However, concerns over how quickly, reliably and fully oil consumption will recover cloud the outlook for prices, alongside doubts over the ability of OPEC+ to maintain supply restraint in the face of rising output by non-OPEC producers. Impacts Higher oil prices will bring some fiscal relief to oil-producing countries, but the financial position of many will remain weak. The price increase is unlikely to reverse the recent pivot of European oil majors towards more sustainable technologies. OPEC+ cooperation will continue given the common interest in stable prices, but less cohesion will moderate the group's ambition. Libyan oil output, which had resumed 2019 levels, is facing more disruption and the prospects for higher Iranian output remain uncertain.

Low oil prices will give South Korea a timely boost

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Content Type ◽  
World Demand ◽  
Developed World ◽  
Dramatic Fall ◽  
Lower Production

Subject Effects of low oil prices on South Korea. Significance South Korea is the world's fifth-largest oil importer, just after Germany, and imports virtually all the oil it uses. The dramatic fall in oil prices to around 50 dollars per barrel will give a timely boost to the country's economy, which weakened in the final quarter of 2014 with growth of just 0.4%, the slowest in two years. Annual growth in 2014 of 3.3% improved upon 2013's 3.0%, but fell short of the finance ministry's 3.8% forecast. Impacts Improved economic performance will reduce dependence on the chaebol and strengthen the government's hand in structural reform efforts. A sustained period of low oil prices may lead to monetary policy remaining overly accommodative for too long. Export-dependent South Korea still relies on developed-world demand -- something low oil prices may help to revive. With the won weak, lower production costs will allow exporters to cut prices to compete overseas.

Shallower recession will not boost Russia's GDP hopes

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Permanent Loss ◽  
Vulnerable Population Groups

Significance The ministry's optimism is based on a recovery in global oil prices, the limited effects of COVID-19 lockdown measures on industries and businesses, and a rebound in domestic demand. It expects economic performance to return to pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of 2021. Impacts A permanent loss of productive capacity in some sectors would fuel inflation. This and other inflationary pressures may force the central bank to shift from accommodating to restrictive monetary policies. Job losses in small and medium-sized companies will hurt the most vulnerable population groups.

Further Nicaragua sanctions to harden Ortega’s stance

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government

Subject Political tensions. Significance A fresh round of sanctions imposed on key political figures in June looks set further to harden the government’s stance towards its critics. Having ridden out the major protests of 2018, the administration of President Daniel Ortega remains defiant in the face of increased international pressure. Ongoing efforts to secure prisoner releases and hold dialogue between the government and protest groups are increasingly viewed merely as a delaying tactic, used by the Ortega government to deflect criticism. Impacts More sanctions will put pressure on financial institutions to comply, with some non-Nicaraguan banks likely to consider ending operations. With Ortega now set to remain in power until at least the 2021 elections, attention will shift to campaigning. The threat of the amnesty law may lead some former protesters to flee to Costa Rica for fear of reprisals.

Costa Rica’s Alvarado will struggle with fiscal reform

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Fiscal Reform ◽  
Content Type

Headline COSTA RICA: Alvarado will struggle with fiscal reform

Underlying weakness will hold back Moroccan economy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Account ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
Energy Subsidy

Subject Economic outlook Significance The fall in oil prices has brought considerable benefits to Morocco's external account, as the country is heavily dependent on imported energy. However, its overall economic performance will be held back by fluctuations in agricultural output, the weakness of the European market, corruption and the deficiencies of the educational system. Impacts The current account deficit will fall below 1 billion dollars in 2016, according to the IMF, compared with almost 10 billion in 2012. Low oil prices have helped the government push through energy subsidy reforms, but pension reform will meet stiff resistance. The income from tourism and remittances will struggle to recover owing to euro-area weakness. Reform to the education system -- an essential element in boosting economic performance -- will be a thorny issue.

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