Norms can undermine Middle East and Africa transitions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Transitional Justice ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Institutional Reform ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Short Transition ◽  
Political Settlement

Significance Transitions following a peace agreement are typically seen as major opportunities for democratisation and new constitution making, and sometimes for national dialogue, reconciliation, transitional justice and institutional reform. Outcomes, however, are often disappointing. Impacts The peace agreement and transition framework in South Sudan may face mounting setbacks, bringing its credibility into question. Civil society groups will struggle to get their views about transition heard. International and local peacebuilding NGOs may suffer more than other organisations from aid cuts. The Libya dialogue may aim for a limited outcome that prioritises a short transition to elections rather than a comprehensive transition. Calls may grow for a new approach to reach a political settlement in Yemen, given the meagre results of the existing UN mediation approach.

Uganda regional agenda may face setback

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Policy ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Regional Agenda ◽  
Better Than

Subject Uganda's regional policy. Significance Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on September 16 attended a series of meetings in Khartoum with incoming South Sudanese First Vice-President Riek Machar. Machar's spokesperson said that the main outcome was Uganda's assurance that it will withdraw its military (UPDF) from South Sudan as per the recent South Sudan peace agreement. The development reflects a wider context in which Uganda's regional clout is under strain. Impacts Military intervention in Somalia will exacerbate that country's spillover effects for insecurity in the wider region. The UPDF's role in AMISOM heightens Uganda's vulnerability to al-Shabaab attacks. However, Uganda will manage these better than Kenya, partly due to its long-term character as a security state.

Protest groups signal shift in Middle East politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Grassroots Politics ◽  
The Past ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
Middle East Politics

Subject Civil society protest movements in Iraq and Lebanon. Significance Protest movements in the Middle East have been curtailed severely by retrenched autocratic governments and civil wars since the Arab uprisings in 2011. With their relatively open political systems, Lebanon and Iraq never participated in these protests fully. However, over the past year they have seen a resurgence in grassroots politics that could influence civil society across the region. Impacts Protest movements provide an outlet for popular frustration; their repression increases the risk of longer-term political instability. Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco have the most favourable conditions for a revival of civil society protest movements. Such movements could play a larger role in Yemen, Libya and Syria after conflicts have ended. In the longer run, these movements could benefit business in the region by driving efforts to fight corruption and improve transparency.

South Sudan's multiple conflicts will not subside

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sudanese Refugees

Significance South Sudan is facing severe conflict and insecurity, a prolonged political crisis, and dire economic conditions. A peace agreement signed in August 2015 is falling apart, and fighting and violence during the past year has caused the number of South Sudanese refugees in Uganda to rise to 900,000 -- with a further 375,000 in Sudan and 287,000 in Ethiopia. Earlier this year, aid agencies declared a famine situation in several counties, and appealed for more humanitarian aid and improved access. Impacts Oil output is likely to remain at, or near, 130,000-160,000 barrels per day. Juba’s fiscal situation will remain precarious, with the government unable to secure loans from donors. Unrest and limited strikes over salary arrears could increase.

Afghan peace deal will sideline Kabul's interests

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Pull Out ◽  
The Future ◽  
Political Settlement

Significance Several rounds of US-Taliban talks have acquired a dynamism of their own and appear to be close to a deal. Because one element of such an agreement -- a US troop withdrawal -- chimes with White House objectives, US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad seems ready to leave a negotiated political settlement involving the Kabul government for a later date. Impacts The contents of a written peace agreement will be of limited significance if not all Taliban forces comply. A deal without Kabul on board will undercut US claims of concern for the future of Afghanistan, its people and their rights. Washington's leverage over Kabul will decline as its troops pull out.

New states in South Sudan could entrench patronage

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New States ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Security Concerns

Subject Governance in South Sudan. Significance In late 2015, President Salva Kiir ordered that the country’s ten states be redrawn to create 28 states. In January, he then ordered the creation of four more states, taking the total to 32. This is unfolding against limited outbreaks of fighting around the country, sometimes in areas which were more stable in past periods of insecurity. Kiir is trying to keep alive the Transitional Government of National Unity, formed out of the 2015 peace agreement but jeopardised by the crisis in mid-2016. Impacts Localised upsurges of fighting will continue, risking a larger crisis. Juba will watch for evidence of Sudanese or Ethiopian support for Machar that may exacerbate security concerns. No one has the power to topple Kiir, except potentially for a senior military figure in Juba. The creation of new states will do little for the prospects of needed investment and development.

South Sudan oil sector optimism is premature

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Oil Revenues

Subject The performance and prospects of South Sudan’s oil sector. Significance The signing in September of a notional peace agreement has raised the question of whether South Sudan’s authorities can now boost oil production and revenues -- and whether they will use any new revenues to support peace. Impacts Output is unlikely to rise far above 130,000-150,000 b/d in 2019. Details about oil revenues and their distribution will remain largely hidden. Major oil companies will continue to shun South Sudan as an investment destination.

Shortcomings will mire the South Sudan peace process

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Institutional Reform ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type

Significance The agreement has formally held, but implementation is well behind schedule and shows no sign of accelerating. Moreover, there still appears to be little prospect that the agreement will resolve the deeper political ills that have kept South Sudan embroiled in conflict for most of its history. Impacts Rhetorical commitments to institutional reform will translate into changes that are symbolic at best. Escalating armed conflict between the army and other armed groups is still a risk. The economy will remain stagnant.

South Sudan faces a rocky road to first elections

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Bargaining Power ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Strength

Significance The current government’s mandate was meant to end this year. Instead, elections prescribed for 2021 have been delayed to 2023, ostensibly to allow more time to implement the 2018 peace agreement that ended the country’s civil war. Even with such a delay, the path to elections is likely to be littered with challenges. Impacts Few new opposition groups will consider forming political parties, as military strength is still viewed as the only viable route to power. Opposition groups may form alliances to boost their bargaining power, but talking with government is seen as more viable than toppling it. The post-election period will also be volatile, amid likely rejections of results or attempts to negotiate access to non-elected posts.

Protest politics will grow slowly in South Sudan

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Security Countermeasures

Significance However, the day passed with none of the protests the group invited, after the government warned people against participation and deployed a strong security presence onto the streets. Impacts Given arrest risks for would-be organisers, diaspora involvement will likely be crucial to any successful protest campaign. The government risks stronger international rebuke when using harsh security countermeasures against dual nationals. Donor desire to support civil society politics may result in funding for groups that become involved in future protest campaigns.

Unity will be elusive despite new South Sudan cabinet

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
Local Level ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Remote Areas ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Positive Step

Significance It follows rebel leader Riek Machar's return to the capital and inauguration as vice-president on April 26. The TGNU's formation is central to the peace agreement signed in August last year, and is a positive step towards ending the civil war, which has resulted in over 50,000 civilian deaths. Impacts Civilians displaced by fighting will return to stable areas, but local-level disputes could drive new outflows in some regions. Oil output will increase if the Unity fields are re-opened, but the revenue benefits for Juba will be subdued due to low oil prices. The 12,000-strong UN peacekeeping force will prove insufficient to maintain security, especially in remote areas.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document