Unity will be elusive despite new South Sudan cabinet

Significance It follows rebel leader Riek Machar's return to the capital and inauguration as vice-president on April 26. The TGNU's formation is central to the peace agreement signed in August last year, and is a positive step towards ending the civil war, which has resulted in over 50,000 civilian deaths. Impacts Civilians displaced by fighting will return to stable areas, but local-level disputes could drive new outflows in some regions. Oil output will increase if the Unity fields are re-opened, but the revenue benefits for Juba will be subdued due to low oil prices. The 12,000-strong UN peacekeeping force will prove insufficient to maintain security, especially in remote areas.

Subject Uganda's regional policy. Significance Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on September 16 attended a series of meetings in Khartoum with incoming South Sudanese First Vice-President Riek Machar. Machar's spokesperson said that the main outcome was Uganda's assurance that it will withdraw its military (UPDF) from South Sudan as per the recent South Sudan peace agreement. The development reflects a wider context in which Uganda's regional clout is under strain. Impacts Military intervention in Somalia will exacerbate that country's spillover effects for insecurity in the wider region. The UPDF's role in AMISOM heightens Uganda's vulnerability to al-Shabaab attacks. However, Uganda will manage these better than Kenya, partly due to its long-term character as a security state.


Author(s):  
Shiva Kumar Shrestha

Purpose – As the government extension services are less effective in reaching the remote areas and mid-hills of Nepal, the purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of community-based management in technology transfer. Design/methodology/approach – The Farmer-to-Farmer (FtF) extension approach as a better alternative to government extension services will be adopted in the research. Findings – The FtF approach is a cost effective and sustainable service delivery mechanism for extending basic and innovative technologies to rural farmers, especially in remote areas. Even marginalized, poor and disadvantaged groups, often excluded from mainstream assistance, have better access to extension services disseminated through the FtF approach. The agriculture committees established at the Village Development Committee (VDC) level are much entrusted by the people as they facilitates their participation in the planning-to-implementation processes related to local agriculture development programmes. Consequently, there is much local support for the establishment of the local committees and the FtF approach. Several challenges remain however, one being the committee members’ management capacity. Originality/value – Decentralizing the FtF extension approach to the local level, the VDCs.


Significance A ‘framework agreement’ reached between President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar in Khartoum on June 27 had been billed as a breakthrough in efforts to end South Sudan’s four-and-a-half-year civil war, but progress since then has been mired by infighting, especially around power-sharing formulas. Impacts Sudan and Uganda’s involvement as ‘guarantors’ could constrain would-be spoilers but will be deeply divisive. The several dozen other armed factions will fight to secure their place at the table. Already-dire humanitarian conditions will worsen without local-level security improvements.


Significance South Sudan is facing severe conflict and insecurity, a prolonged political crisis, and dire economic conditions. A peace agreement signed in August 2015 is falling apart, and fighting and violence during the past year has caused the number of South Sudanese refugees in Uganda to rise to 900,000 -- with a further 375,000 in Sudan and 287,000 in Ethiopia. Earlier this year, aid agencies declared a famine situation in several counties, and appealed for more humanitarian aid and improved access. Impacts Oil output is likely to remain at, or near, 130,000-160,000 barrels per day. Juba’s fiscal situation will remain precarious, with the government unable to secure loans from donors. Unrest and limited strikes over salary arrears could increase.


Significance Despite the public criticism, Obama Asue was soon reappointed. This was due largely to the reported intervention of the president’s son, Vice-President Teodorin Obiang, a controversial figure who is increasingly positioning himself to take over from his father. Impacts Teodorin is more likely to succeed his father after the 2023 elections, unless his father is incapacitated before then. A Teodorin presidency will increase Equatorial Guinea's dependency on China given his poor relations with Western governments. Low oil prices and COVID-19-related disruption could see the country’s economic crisis extend into the medium term.


Headline SOUTH SUDAN: New rebel group faces test of patience


Subject Governance in South Sudan. Significance In late 2015, President Salva Kiir ordered that the country’s ten states be redrawn to create 28 states. In January, he then ordered the creation of four more states, taking the total to 32. This is unfolding against limited outbreaks of fighting around the country, sometimes in areas which were more stable in past periods of insecurity. Kiir is trying to keep alive the Transitional Government of National Unity, formed out of the 2015 peace agreement but jeopardised by the crisis in mid-2016. Impacts Localised upsurges of fighting will continue, risking a larger crisis. Juba will watch for evidence of Sudanese or Ethiopian support for Machar that may exacerbate security concerns. No one has the power to topple Kiir, except potentially for a senior military figure in Juba. The creation of new states will do little for the prospects of needed investment and development.


Subject The performance and prospects of South Sudan’s oil sector. Significance The signing in September of a notional peace agreement has raised the question of whether South Sudan’s authorities can now boost oil production and revenues -- and whether they will use any new revenues to support peace. Impacts Output is unlikely to rise far above 130,000-150,000 b/d in 2019. Details about oil revenues and their distribution will remain largely hidden. Major oil companies will continue to shun South Sudan as an investment destination.


Significance Kiir on February 15 made a major concession by reversing a controversial decentralisation initiative and restoring the country’s original ten states, though Machar has rejected the proposed addition of new ‘administrative areas’. The opposition also has major concerns over multiple other aspects of peace process implementation, but few palatable options. Impacts There is no clarity on how administrative areas would be governed; if Pibor is a guide, they may become states-in-waiting. Some opposition elements will accept the ‘ten-plus-three’ solution, as it protects their own interests. Kiir will need to compensate those in his own camp who lose out from the changes, leaving little room for further concessions to Machar.


Author(s):  
Douglas H. Johnson

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement succeeded in resolving Sudan’s oldest political question regarding the future of South Sudan, but its most obvious failure was the immediate resumption of war inside Sudan’s ‘New South’ along its border with South Sudan before the latter’s formal independence in July 2011. By focusing on resolving ‘the Southern Problem’ only, the international mediators failed to recognize the common political, economic, and cultural issues of marginalisation that linked large parts of the border region to the wider war. Conflict in Abyei preceded the outbreak of the second civil war in 1983, but the Abyei Protocol was largely an afterthought that inadequately addressed the main issues confronting the peoples of the area. The CPA as a whole failed to include robust monitoring instruments to enforce compliance, enabling Khartoum to refuse to accept any resolution to the Abyei conflict on anything but its own terms.


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