South Sudan oil sector optimism is premature

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Oil Revenues

Subject The performance and prospects of South Sudan’s oil sector. Significance The signing in September of a notional peace agreement has raised the question of whether South Sudan’s authorities can now boost oil production and revenues -- and whether they will use any new revenues to support peace. Impacts Output is unlikely to rise far above 130,000-150,000 b/d in 2019. Details about oil revenues and their distribution will remain largely hidden. Major oil companies will continue to shun South Sudan as an investment destination.

Iraqi Kurdistan could see oil and gas advances

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Iraqi Kurdistan ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Slight Rise

Significance The oil sector managed a slight rise in oil production in 2020, despite the challenges of the pandemic and low oil prices. The KRG mostly managed to keep up payments to oil companies but did not assist Baghdad in making production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. Impacts Combined new gas projects could meet domestic needs and potentially allow exports by the later 2020s. The government could resume payments of overdue amounts to international oil companies from this month. Talks with Baghdad will become more complex around planned elections in October 2021 and depending on legal developments with Turkey.

US rhetoric on South Sudan may prove hollow

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
The South ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
New Strategy ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
To Come

Subject US policy towards South Sudan Significance Senior US officials have recently taken a harder line with South Sudan’s leaders over the country’s civil war, having resolved that President Salva Kiir’s government is principally to blame for the ongoing conflict and the collapse of a 2015 peace deal. After two senior US officials visited Juba to make it clear that “a serious re-examination” of US policy was underway, the administration announced a new round of sanctions designations and more public condemnation. Washington has hinted that further pressure is to come, but the spike in rhetoric may be more indicative of frustration than of a new strategy. Impacts The HLRF is unlikely to rescue the peace agreement, setting the stage for more violence as the dry season approaches. The government’s already low levels of popular legitimacy will further erode amid conflict and economic decay. Absent US leadership, Europe and the UN are unlikely to forge new initiatives without a clear request from the region. Further US sanctions may bar US oil companies from entering the South Sudan market and deter other investors.

Disunity among critics will aid South Sudan government

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rainy Season ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Political Security ◽  
Conflict Intensity ◽  
Water Borne

Significance Two years after the peace agreement, South Sudan is still at war -- and political, security, humanitarian and economic conditions are dire. Nevertheless, the balance of power within the country has shifted dramatically, and internal and external parties are now starting to reposition. Impacts Conflict intensity will reduce during the rainy season but further clashes are likely. Malaria and water-borne diseases will add to humanitarian pressures. Credible new investment in the oil sector is unlikely before 2019 at the earliest.

Fiscal squeeze will slow Iraq oil sector expansion

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Financial Difficulties ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Trade Sanctions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
State Group ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of a fiscal squeeze on oil sector investment. Significance Despite continuing turmoil in parts of the country, Iraq's oil exports are rising, averaging close to 3 million barrels a day (b/d) in March, the highest since 1990 when financial and trade sanctions were imposed after the occupation of Kuwait. April exports are on course to top 3 million b/d. Yet financial difficulties caused by the decline in global oil prices and the high cost of the war against the Islamic State group (ISG) are affecting the government's ambitious investment plans for the sector, prompting the oil ministry to request international oil companies (IOCs) in southern Iraq to scale back their expansion plans. Impacts Government plans to increase southern production from almost 3 million b/d to 8 million b/d by 2020 will need to be revised. Introduction of new heavy grade oil expands Iraq's oil marketing potential. Decline in oil revenues will lead to reduced government spending and a higher fiscal deficit in 2015.

South Sudan sanctions will prove largely symbolic

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Risk ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Procurement Fraud

Subject Impact and outlook for sanctions in South Sudan. Significance As concerns grow that a new transitional government of national unity envisaged under the September 2018 peace agreement may not be formed on time on November 12, sanctions are again an open topic of debate. Already, on October 11, the US Treasury sanctioned two businessmen for their involvement in bribery, kickbacks and procurement fraud with government officials, and US officials have warned of new sanctions against any who derail the peace agreement. Impacts The presence of major Asian companies provides the oil sector with some measure of protection from Western sanctions. Reputational and financial risk may nevertheless prompt some international oil traders to reduce their dealings with South Sudan. High levels of domestic poverty and humanitarian need will deter a more sweeping economic sanctions regime.

South Sudan faces a bleak development outlook

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
International Organisations ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Basic Services ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Development Outlook

Significance A 2018 peace agreement was meant to provide space for economic reform and recovery, but it has failed to deliver this. Moreover, the outlook for improvement remains poor. Impacts Many South Sudanese will remain reliant on international organisations to provide basic services. Corruption and mismanagement will deter foreign investment, including in the oil sector, the main source of government revenue. Despite a formal end to the conflict, persistent insecurity and the risk of further unrest will constrain the recovery.

Baghdad and Erbil policy moves may deter oil investors

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Water Injection ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Associated Gas ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Bureaucratic Reform

Significance Although some important hydrocarbons projects have seen progress, both Baghdad and Erbil have made fresh moves seen as prejudicial by oil sector investors. Uncertainty continues over the authorities’ commitment to contracts, while the Kurdistan region has yet again fallen behind on payments to oil firms. Impacts Increased oil production as OPEC+ limits ease will make progress on associated gas capture and water injection more urgent. A dire electricity situation may pose a threat to political stability. Uncertainties over the upcoming elections in October and poor prospects for bureaucratic reform may further deter investment.

Iran's oil production will stabilise

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Products ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Refined Oil ◽  
Market Opening ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Stable Production ◽  
International Sanctions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
International Investors

Significance The oil sector is bouncing back after the lifting of international sanctions. Production has risen from an average of 2.8 million bpd during 2015, and is now approaching pre-sanctions levels. The country has finalised new-style petroleum contracts offering more favourable terms to international investors. Impacts Banking, compliance and sanctions issues will gradually ease, reducing pressure on the oil sector. A stable production outlook will facilitate efforts to agree an OPEC production freeze. Oil revenue in 2016 could reach 31.5 billion dollars, 75% up on 2015, easing the fiscal situation. Exports of petrochemicals and refined oil products will rise, on the back of higher oil output and market opening.

Uganda regional agenda may face setback

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Policy ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Regional Agenda ◽  
Better Than

Subject Uganda's regional policy. Significance Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on September 16 attended a series of meetings in Khartoum with incoming South Sudanese First Vice-President Riek Machar. Machar's spokesperson said that the main outcome was Uganda's assurance that it will withdraw its military (UPDF) from South Sudan as per the recent South Sudan peace agreement. The development reflects a wider context in which Uganda's regional clout is under strain. Impacts Military intervention in Somalia will exacerbate that country's spillover effects for insecurity in the wider region. The UPDF's role in AMISOM heightens Uganda's vulnerability to al-Shabaab attacks. However, Uganda will manage these better than Kenya, partly due to its long-term character as a security state.

Nigerian oil rebound vital for economic recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
China And India ◽  
Relative Safety ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Interventions

Significance Despite such controversies, the government is pinning hopes for economic recovery on restoring hydrocarbons production alongside longstanding plans to reduce the country’s dependence on oil. While large international oil companies are retreating to the relative safety of the deep offshore, the government will look to new partnerships with China and India for large infrastructure projects. Impacts Employment gains in the oil sector will be marginal compared to increases in the agricultural sector. Recent state interventions against oil majors are unlikely to deter future investment. Counter-insurgency operations against Boko Haram could distract from government peace efforts in the Niger Delta.

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