Ecuador presidential elections likely to go to runoff

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Virus Strains ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance All presidential candidates are emphasising their credentials to lead economic recovery, though only a handful have a realistic chance of winning. Right-winger Guillermo Lasso of Creando Oportunidades (Creating Opportunities) and leftist 'Correista' Andres Arauz of the Centro Democratico (Democratic Centre) are the leading contenders. Impacts New virus strains could see infections soar, exacerbating pressures on the economy and already strained hospitals. A Lasso-Arauz runoff would increase short-term political and economic uncertainty as the two candidates offer differing recovery plans. Ecuador’s medium-term economic outlook will be weak regardless of who wins the presidency.

Ecuador's left is down but far from out

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vice President ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Face Former ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The first round's leading candidate, former Vice-President Lenin Moreno, of the leftist ruling party Alianza Pais, will face former banker and centre-right candidate Guillermo Lasso on April 2. The announcement came amid accusations of fraud and growing criticism over the delays in releasing the official results. Impacts The election results will increase economic uncertainty and dampen economic activity in the short term. Political tensions will rise as the two presidential candidates battle to secure votes outside of their core constituencies. Whatever the runoff result, Alianza Pais will hold its National Assembly majority, exerting significant influence over legislative matters. With economic woes hindering the new government, four years of unpopular right-wing rule could pave the way for a Correa comeback in 2021.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

Africa's 'oil price winners' face mixed prospects

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Political Space ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Africa's oil price winners. Significance Despite traditionally being winners during periods of oil price decline, the medium-term outlook is mixed for sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) oil importing countries -- reflected in the IMF's recent downgrade of its SSA outlook from 5.75% to 4.9%. Short-term gains reduce the fuel import bill, but uncertainty looms over energy investments in eastern African, while idiosyncratic risks cloud the outlook for southern Africa. While oil exporters may also reap some benefits, much will depend on the degree of oil dependency, political space to make the necessary policy retrenchments, and the extent of government financial buffers. Impacts If sustained, low oil prices could provoke civil unrest, rather than reforms, in oil exporting countries. Most oil exporters will struggle to maintain macroeconomic stability if oil remains low for more than a year. However, economic diversification to some degree helps to shield the region from sharp global slowdowns.

Future Nigeria cabinet will not solve economic crunch

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Agencies ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Regional Bias ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Chief Of Staff ◽  
The North ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for Nigeria. Significance The National Bureau of Statistics on August 26 announced that GDP growth slowed to 2.35% year-on-year in the second quarter, from 6.54% in the year-earlier period. This is the lowest figure since quarterly records began in 2006. It adds pressure on President Muhammadu Buhari to articulate a detailed, medium-term plan to revive growth. Impacts Buhari's cabinet appointments are likely to reflect the technocrat character of those recently appointed as heads of lead federal agencies. However, if personnel choices also continue to be drawn primarily from the north, domestic unease will grow over a regional bias. Despite his credentials, Buhari's new Chief of Staff Alhaji Abba Kyari may face difficulties negotiating the government's reform agenda.

Brazil government coalition risks unraveling

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Coalition ◽  
The Future ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
Government Coalition ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance On her return from the United States and Russia, President Dilma Rousseff's problems have not changed; indeed, most worsened during her absence. Brazil's economic outlook is bleaker, the governing political coalition weaker and the scope of the corruption scandal has widened. Impacts Congress will push back more strongly against spending cuts as the government's situation weakens. The PMDB as a whole is unlikely to follow Cunha's lead, at least in the short term. Lula's fate will have major longer-term implications for the future of the PT.

Prospects for Nigeria in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type

Subject Prospects for Nigeria in 2017. Significance Hopes of an economic turnaround will be limited by the continued shortage of foreign exchange crippling industrial outputs and consumer sectors. Renewed militancy and halting of oil production in the Niger Delta -- in addition to isolated Boko Haram attacks -- could make economic recovery unachievable in the short term. Unemployment and everyday poverty in urban centres may create pockets of emergent protest.

Brazil's meat scandal may shake agriculture outlook

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Open Space ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Meat Processing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
World Class ◽  
Meat Sector

Subject Outlook for Brazilian agriculture. Significance Brazil is among the world’s top commodity producers and the leading exporter of beef and poultry. Agriculture and livestock account for less than 5% of GDP but has been central to the trade balance in recent years. Recent corruption scandals in the meat sector pose major challenges for agribusiness. Prospects for agriculture look more promising in 2017, but agribusiness as a whole now faces deep uncertainties at both domestic and global levels. Impacts Corruption in different spheres is hindering Brazil’s few possibilities of economic recovery in the short term. Doubts about Brazilian meat processing practices open space for international competitors, such as Australia. Unsavoury practices may damage Brazilian long-lived world-class reputation in agribusiness.

Iraqi Kurds’ economic recovery will be limited

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Iraq’s Kurdish region. Significance The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has seen a limited economic recovery over the past year. It suffered catastrophically following the central government's imposition of sanctions following the region’s abortive 2017 independence bid. Impacts A likely larger federal government allocation to the KRI in the 2019/20 budget will facilitate economic recovery. Increased US pressure to boost Iraqi oil exports to Turkey will increase local government revenues. As both local and federal government revenues depend on oil, falling prices would cause another contraction.

Contradictory Argentine policies mar stability hopes

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tax Amnesty ◽  
Primary Deficit

Subject The difficulties of economic policy-making. Significance The first-quarter primary deficit reached 0.4% of GDP, below the quarterly goal of 0.6%. The rise in revenues, mainly due to the tax amnesty that ended in March, helped offset higher spending in areas such as social security payments and capital investment, driven by the pre-election revival of public works. However, in the absence of extraordinary revenues during the rest of the year, it will be harder to meet fiscal targets. Impacts The lack of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies raises concerns over macroeconomic stability. This will further discourage consumption and investment, preventing a sustained economic recovery. Growing fiscal and external deficits will raise risks of a balance-of-payments crisis in the medium term.

South Sudan's economic recovery requires deeper reform

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type

Subject Management of South Sudan's economy Significance A framework peace agreement reached in Khartoum on June 27 comprised only five substantive articles; it was therefore striking that one focused on re-starting oil production. The potential -- and the desire -- for economic recovery are real, but turning potential into actual development and growth will require more than just getting the oil flowing again. Impacts Attempts to strengthen oilfield security in Unity State could trigger new fighting. Unity’s oilfields could potentially add 70,000 barrels per day by the end of 2019. Foreign investment inflows will remain minimal in the short-to-medium term.

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