Iraqi Kurds’ economic recovery will be limited

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Iraq’s Kurdish region. Significance The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has seen a limited economic recovery over the past year. It suffered catastrophically following the central government's imposition of sanctions following the region’s abortive 2017 independence bid. Impacts A likely larger federal government allocation to the KRI in the 2019/20 budget will facilitate economic recovery. Increased US pressure to boost Iraqi oil exports to Turkey will increase local government revenues. As both local and federal government revenues depend on oil, falling prices would cause another contraction.

Alberta's economic woes have political consequences

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Oil Sands ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Structural Unemployment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Remaining Oil ◽  
Keystone Xl

Significance With steep reductions in public spending affecting education and social programmes, the budget signals an era of austerity in what had been Canada’s wealthiest province. One consequence is likely to be greater tension between the provincial government and the federal government in Ottawa. Impacts Major international funds will continue to divest from the oil sands sector, further depressing output as subsidies are cut. Remaining oil sands production will be increasingly automated, meaning that structural unemployment will persist. Ottawa’s refusal to contest US cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline has raised tensions with the UCP government in Edmonton. The national broad-based economic recovery expected this year will largely bypass Alberta.

Pastoralism, Ethnicity, and Subnational Conflict Resolution in the Middle Belt

2018 ◽  
pp. 678-696
Author(s):  
Laura Thaut Vinson
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
The State ◽  
The Past ◽  
Material Costs ◽  
State And Local Government ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Subnational Conflict

This chapter explores the problem of rising pastoralist–farmer and ethnic (religious and tribal) violence in the pluralistic Middle Belt region of Nigeria over the past thirty to forty years. In particular, it highlights the underlying issues and conflicts associated with these different categories of communal intergroup violence, the human and material costs of such conflict, and the broader implications for the Nigerian state. The federal government, states, local governments. and communities have not been passive in addressing the considerable challenges associated with preventing and resolving such conflicts. It is clear, however, that they face significant hurdles in resolving the underlying grievances and drivers of conflict, and their efforts have not always furthered the cause of conflict resolution and peacebuilding. Greater attention to patterns of inclusion and exclusion and to the allocation of rights and resources will be necessary, particularly at the state and local government levels, to create a more stable and peaceful Middle Belt.

Legacy issues constrain Sudan's economic recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Fiscal Revenue

Significance Khartoum has benefited from a fixed per-barrel transit fee given falling oil prices, but the Sudanese economy has yet to recover from the shock caused by South Sudan's secession in 2011. According to the IMF's latest review, Sudan at that point lost three quarters of its oil production, one-half of its fiscal revenue and two-thirds of its international payments capacity. While the economy has begun to stabilise, recovery is fragile. Impacts Khartoum benefits from the delay to transit fee renegotiation, but talks are likely to begin soon. This may provoke renewed confrontations over other issues, such as the border and claims about rebel support. However, a renewed suspension of South Sudanese oil exports would hurt Juba more than Khartoum.

UK voters will ignore budget and elect hung parliament

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Event ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Deficit Reduction

Significance The budget will prove to be all but the last political event before the final campaign and the May 7 general election. Although the detail had to be determined in cooperation with the Liberal Democrats, Osborne's package was an unashamed pitch for a Conservative term of office. The crucial contest at the election will be the government's claim to have delivered on economic recovery and deficit reduction over the past five years, versus the Labour Party's assertion that its own preferred route to budgetary stability is better balanced and more socially acceptable. Impacts The link, if any, between the economy and politics is uncertain: the Conservatives won in 1992 (recession) but lost in 1997 (boom). The United Kingdom has experienced a 'voteless recovery' -- a huge move from pessimism to optimism, with no benefit for the Conservatives. Benign international economic conditions (notably the sharp fall in global oil prices) have boosted growth for 2015. This shift could be easily reversed if oil prices were to return to 2012-14 levels. Assumptions that the 'age of austerity' is over and the budget will achieve balance in the next parliament are very premature.

China may struggle to achieve a job-rich GDP recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for China following the lifting of the COVID-19 lockdown. Significance The economic uncertainties due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic made this year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) unusually important. After GDP fell 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the government for the first time announced no annual GDP growth target, indicating extreme uncertainty over the extent and durability of recovery. Impacts China’s industrial output will outpace export demand; trade tensions such as anti-dumping cases could rise. US-China tensions will rise, but both sides will be warier than last year of major moves that could jeopardise economic recovery. China’s commitment to high military spending is undiminished by its economic troubles; defence spending will rise as a share of GDP.

Foreign options widen as economy recovers in Jamaica

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Imf

Subject Jamaica's political and economic outlook. Significance At the end of April the IMF conducted its fifth review under its stand-by arrangement with Jamaica. Again the news was generally positive, with continued growth, falling unemployment and a buoyant stock exchange. Impacts International relations will face challenges from the Venezuelan crisis and Brexit. Mild economic recovery will not suffice to combat high levels of crime. Forthcoming elections could jeopardise the government’s commitment to reform.

Iraqi Kurds will advance independence bid in 2015

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Power Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Prime Ministers ◽  
Internal Politics ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Political Factions

Subject Iraqi Kurdish internal politics. Significance The parliament of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) undertook the first reading of a draft law to reform the powers of the region's executive presidency on June 23. The meeting dealt with proposed amendments to the 2005 KRG Presidency Law that would result in the president being elected by Kurdish legislators rather than directly by all KRI voters. The move is the first step in a long-awaited reform process spearheaded by political factions seeking to challenge the dominant Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)'s hold on power. Impacts KRG leaders will probably be preoccupied with internal negotiations for the remainder of the year. Kurds will press ahead with a return to independent oil exports, expansion in the Kirkuk area, and may ratify the new constitution. The shape of KRG power politics will change, with a reduced presidency and greater powers for prime ministers and the parliament. Independence moves could complicate KRG-Turkish ties at a sensitive moment for ties between Turkey's ruling AKP and Turkish Kurds.

US output will negate most of extended OPEC cuts

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Fiscal Stress ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Potential Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Deep Recession ◽  
Dependent State

Significance The US shale oil industry has mounted a comeback over the past six months. After a deep recession brought on by plunging oil prices starting in mid-2014, the sector is growing again as prices have stabilised and US oil output is rising, approaching record levels once again. OPEC’s May 26 meeting was a potential threat to that recovery, but the cartel’s decision to hold the line on its regime of production cuts ensures continued growth for US oil. Impacts US oil exports will rise this year on higher output from the Permian oilfield, which is well connected to Gulf Coast export facilities. An uptick in drilling will contribute to the overall tightening of the US labour market, pushing up wages and oilfield services costs. Restored royalty flows will ease some fiscal stress on oil-dependent state governments such as Alaska and North Dakota.

China will help Brunei ease reliance on crude exports

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Refinery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Petrochemical Complex ◽  
The Past ◽  
Local Labour ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Chinese Workers ◽  
Chinese Foreign Direct Investment

Subject Brunei's economic diversification. Significance Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, ruler of Brunei for the past 50 years, is turning to Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) and engineering companies to expand his country’s infrastructure and reduce its dependence on crude oil exports. The first phase of the China-funded Pulau Muara Besar (PMB) oil refinery and petrochemical complex is due to open in early 2019. Impacts A rise in oil prices will drive Brunei’s GDP growth in the short term. Reliance on Chinese companies will increase the number of Chinese workers brought to Brunei, limiting opportunities for local labour. Within ASEAN, Brunei will support Beijing on South China Sea issues.

Spain’s economic recovery from COVID-19 will be slow

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chains ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Spanish Economy ◽  
Fiscal Capacity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Spain's economic outlook. Significance The Spanish economy contracted by 5.2% quarter-on-quarter in January-March due to the lockdown to contain COVID-19. Given that the lockdown was only implemented in the last few weeks of the quarter, the contraction in the second quarter will be much greater. The economy's pre-pandemic vulnerability -- compounded by a staggered lifting of social restrictions and potential for their re-imposition -- and limited fiscal capacity means that a quick economic recovery is very unlikely. Impacts Spain’s auto industry, the second-largest in Europe, will suffer disproportionately due to its reliance on multinational supply chains. The slump in consumer demand and sharply lower oil prices will trigger a decline in the inflation rate. Growing political opposition to Spain’s minority coalition could slow the government's reconstruction efforts.

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