US anti-trafficking push will align with Trump goals

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Undocumented Immigrants ◽  
State Department ◽  
Trafficking In Persons ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
Reporting Process ◽  
Forced Labour

Subject The 2017 Trafficking in Persons Report. Significance The US State Department released its 2017 Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report on June 29 in a high-profile launch that featured Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Senior White House Advisor Ivanka Trump and Ambassador Susan Coppedge, the department’s anti-trafficking office chief. The 2017 reporting process straddled two administrations: the Obama White House compiled the data, but the rankings of individual countries were ultimately decided by the administration of President Donald Trump. Impacts Congress may restrain outreach to Malaysia and Myanmar (both upgraded) over the trafficking of Myanmar’s Rohingya minority. Trump is unlikely to exercise his legal ability as president to grant protection to trafficked undocumented immigrants. Washington may raise the trafficking of North Koreans for forced labour in China if the White House sees little progress on weapons testing.

Trump highlights pitfalls of election prediction

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Analytical Quality ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
Election Prediction ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Winner Take All ◽  
Take All

Subject Elections analysis versus prediction. Significance The nomination of Donald Trump as the Republican Party's candidate for the US presidency raises questions for how analysts ought to respond to unlikely scenarios and how 'analysis' differs in its construction from prediction. His victory raises the question whether the low probability assigned by many observers to his chance of winning was accurate, and he nevertheless won due to the inherent volatility of primary politics, or if it was the result of fundamentally flawed modelling from the outset. Impacts Past elections suggest Republicans will face hurdles in the Midwest and Northeast against Clinton, but Trump argues he has unique appeal. Gauging analytical quality on the basis of a single high-profile event may encourage misleading deference to previously correct analysts. Including uncertainty levels is a key, but often neglected, part of creating sound predictive models. Threshold events, such as a 'winner-take-all' primary or 'first-past-the-post' election, can see minor shifts lead to outsized outcomes.

US diplomatic service will be downsized and degraded

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Direct Influence ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cutting Out ◽  
Foreign Policy Crises

Subject The State Department. Significance The US State Department’s third-ranking official and most senior career diplomat, Tom Shannon, announced his departure on February 1. While the 60-year old Shannon said he was stepping down for personal reasons, he is only the latest in a stream of senior career diplomats who have left since Donald Trump became president a year ago and appointed Rex Tillerson as secretary of state with a mandate to downsize the department. Impacts Minimising the benefits of diplomacy in favour of military action could exacerbate foreign policy crises and conflicts. White House heel-dragging on filling posts both 'streamlines' State and avoids congressional confirmation scrutiny of political nominees. Concerned that State wields little influence with the White House, Congress will be more assertive in the foreign policy process. Other powers -- particularly US allies -- will seek and have increased direct influence on the White House, cutting out State.

US anti-trafficking goals and trade agenda will clash

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Annual Reports ◽  
Trafficking In Persons ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Reporting Requirements ◽  
The Us ◽  
Country Rankings ◽  
Political Leverage ◽  
Bilateral Assistance ◽  
Political Decisions

Subject The US Department of State's Trafficking in Persons (TIP) report. Significance The release of the State Department's annual Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report in June renewed the debate on uses of the report by US policymakers and perceived politicisation of the ranking system, in which countries are placed in one of four 'tiers'. The ranking of countries is accompanied by legislated restrictions on certain types of bilateral assistance, as well as presenting greater political difficulties for the White House when pursuing closer ties. Impacts The next Congress may stiffen reporting requirements for the annual reports to discourage political decisions on country rankings. Manila's anti-crime drive may extend to trafficking, but vigilantism fears may sour ties with Washington nonetheless. If Congress delays US TPP ratification, Washington's political leverage in South-east Asia is likely to suffer.

Trump will hamstring Tillerson at US State Department

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
State Department ◽  
Policy Formation ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
The State ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House

Significance Tillerson was initially viewed as one in a troika of stability-minded officials with more orthodox views on foreign policy than President Donald Trump, along with Secretary of Defense James Mattis and National Security Advisor HR McMaster. However, in recent months Tillerson has been sidelined on policy formation and contradicted on messaging by the White House, raising questions about the former oil executive’s role within the administration. Impacts UN Ambassador Nikki Haley will offer a more traditional Republican critique of authoritarian regimes, but her voice remains marginal. White House refusal to appoint former Trump critics to the State Department will leave Tillerson with few internal allies. Bipartisan support in Congress for foreign aid and instability concerns will scupper the proposal to merge USAID with the State Department. However, Congress is likely to pass budget cuts for State and USAID, albeit at a less extreme level than the White House proposes.

scholarly journals Populism in the United States: Binary Constructions by Donald Trump in the Domestic and Foreign Policies

2021 ◽  
Vol VI (III) ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nadeem Mirza ◽  
Lubna Abid Ali ◽  
Irfan Hasnain Qaisrani
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Andrew Jackson ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
White House ◽  
Us History ◽  
The People ◽  
The Us ◽  
Foreign Policies

This study intends to explore the rise of Donald Trump to the White House. Why was Donald Trump considered a populist leader, and how did his populist rhetoric and actions impact the contours of American domestic and foreign policies? The study adopted qualitative exploratory and explanatory research techniques. Specific methods utilised to conduct the study remained political personality profiling. It finds that the populist leaders construct the binaries in the society by dividing the nation into two groups: �us� the people, against �them� the corrupt elite or other groups presented as a threat to the lives and livelihood of the nation. Though populism as a unique brand of politics remained active through most of the US history, yet these were only two occasions that populists were successful in winning the American presidential elections � Andrew Jackson in 1828 and Donald Trump in 2016. Structural and historical reasons became the biggest cause behind the election of Donald Trump, who successfully brought a revolution in American domestic and foreign policies. And if structural issues in the United States are not addressed, there is a clear chance that Trump � who is not withering away � will come back to contest and challenge any competitors in the 2024 presidential elections.

Ottawa extends terrorist entity list to neo-fascists

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Business Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
White Supremacists ◽  
The Military ◽  
Radical Element

Significance Some MPs called for this action in the wake of the storming of the US Capitol last month, but the move has been considered for some time following concerns about extremism within the military. Impacts The growth of extremism is linked to a growing divide between conservative white rural areas and cosmopolitan cities. Separatist sentiment in the western provinces may develop a newly radical element from links to extremism. The business sector may face some disruption from an increase in protests and demonstrations. Canada’s reputation for welcoming immigrants could be damaged if there are high-profile incidents involving white supremacists.

Was Kennedy the ‘father’ of the US–Israeli alliance? (1962–63)

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Heller
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
State Department ◽  
Professional Staff ◽  
The State ◽  
Territorial Integrity ◽  
White House ◽  
Chief Of Staff ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
National Archives ◽  
The Us

This chapter debunks the myth that President Kennedy was the ‘father’ of the American alliance. Once he became predident he had to bow before the constraints of the state department, the Pentagon and the professional staff at the White House. he accepted the beliefs and assessments of Dean Rusk, the secretary of state and Robert McNamara, the secretary of defence. The US national archives show that American diplomats in the Middle East killed Kennedy’s idea of granting an American security guarantee to Israel. Any security they warned, would be followed by deeper Soviet involvement in the region. American commitment was limited to a presidential declaration of territorial integrity of al the regional states. Thus it was no surprise chief-of-staff Rabin failed to convince the US administration to provide a more cogent commitment to Israel.

Obama's push on nuclear arms control faces hurdles

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Arms Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nuclear Material ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Security ◽  
Nuclear Opacity ◽  
Nuclear Arms Control

Subject The US arms control agenda. Significance Despite having less than a year in office, President Barack Obama's administration is sustaining a high-profile arms control agenda in 2016. The administration wants to restore several damaged treaties with Russia, broaden Russia-China-US cooperation on various non-proliferation issues and leave Obama's successor a firm nuclear security architecture. Arms control is a consultative, long-term diplomatic process, and is susceptible to the political imperatives of more immediate regional crises. Impacts Tacit US support of Israeli nuclear opacity will undermine arms control efforts in the Middle East. Post-Obama arms control efforts are likely to focus on the security of nuclear material, rather than strategic arms reductions. Senate retirements will undermine US arms control advocacy in Congress. The United States will retain its nuclear arsenal indefinitely despite criticism from its allies.

Global Magnitsky Act will extend US sanctions reach

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Extrajudicial Killings ◽  
Official Corruption ◽  
National Defence

Subject The US Global Magnitsky Act. Significance Congress passed the Global Magnitsky Act as part of an annual national defence bill on December 8 and President Barack Obama is expected to sign it before the end of the year. The legislation allows the president to impose sanctions against individuals tied to official corruption and extrajudicial killings carried out in retaliation for uncovering illegal or corrupt acts. Impacts Jurisdictions in Australia, Canada, Singapore and the United Kingdom may also seek to boost real estate transparency. The White House may use its new sanctioning powers to pressure Iran and burnish its anti-Tehran credentials. The example set by Trump’s future use of the Global Magnitsky Act will be directly correlated with its chance of renewal in 2022.

Disagreement possible over pace of Myanmar-US policy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Labour Rights ◽  
Generalized System ◽  
Generalized System Of Preferences ◽  
The Us ◽  
Aung San Suu Kyi ◽  
Policy Engagement

Subject Outlook for US policy engagement with Myanmar as the US presidential transition nears. Significance The White House is preparing to lift most remaining US sanctions on Myanmar, after President Barack Obama's September 14 announcement to this effect when he met Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Washington will also restore Myanmar's access to the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) because of recent improvements in labour rights. Supporting Myanmar's democratic 'transition' has been a key Obama policy and the president is attempting to fix progress before his successor takes office in January 2017. Impacts Myanmar's government will deepen ties with Beijing, but not necessarily to the extent of eclipsing US ties. The Rohingya issue will still cause some friction in Myanmar-US ties. Policy gaps and delays on Myanmar between the US Congress and next president may expand.

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