A DSGE model with partial euroization: the case of the Macedonian economy

This paper describes the theoretical structure and estimation results for a DSGE model for the Macedonian economy. Having as benchmark the model of Copaciu et al. (2015), modified to allow for a fixed exchange rate, we are able to match relatively well the volatility observed in the data. Given the monetary policy regime in place, the debt deflation channel is more important relative to the financial accelerator one when compared to the flexible exchange rate case. The lack of balance sheet effects results in no significant differences in terms of net worth evolution across the two types of entrepreneurs when impulse response functions are evaluated. However, the shocks related to the financial sector appear to be especially important for investment, for the domestic interest rate and interest rate spreads, illustrating the relevance of including financial frictions in the model. With the exchange rate not acting as a shock absorber, the external shocks are more relevant for the CPI inflation and the domestic interest rate. The drop in GDP associated with the pandemic mainly reflects the negative innovations to the consumption preference shock and to the permanent technology shock.

Specific features of the Russian Economic Growth Model

The article presents the study of the specific features of the Russian economic growth in 1998–2017. The study objective is to substantiate the growth and decline mechanism in business activity in the Russian economy. This mechanism is determined by the gap in the growth rates of wages and labor productivity in the open economy. Four hypotheses have been formulated: 1) significant cause and effect relationship between exchange rate and economic growth in Russia; 2) wage growth outrunning productivity has a depressing effect on the profitability of the commercial sector; 3) significant differences between the Russian economic growth in 1998–2009 and in 2009–2017, determined by the connection between the excess of the domestic interest rate over the world rate and investments; 4) substantial connection between the domestic interest rate and investment in 1998–2009 which disappeared in 2009–2017. The theoretical analysis and the hypotheses have been based on neoclassical synthesis models. Statistical testing of the hypotheses has been carried out by means of statistical and correlation analysis and methods of econometric analysis of time series. A problem related to wage growth outrunning labor productivity has been identified. Probable significant changes in the Russian growth model in 2018–2020 have been forecasted. They will be caused by the infrastructure development and housing construction. The major conclusion of the study is that there will be a positive effect of the ruble depreciation on labor productivity in the medium term. However, it will be over by the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020. Domestic currency strengthening and outrunning wage growth with the slowing labor productivity reduce the profitability of the commercial sector and put brakes on the economic growth.

PENGARUH TINGKAT BUNGA DOMESTIK DAN LUAR NEGERI SERTA NILAI TUKAR MATA UANG RUPIAH TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

This study aimed to analyze the influence of the Domestic Interest Rate and Foreign Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rate Rupiah against the Composite Stock Price Index at the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Population which is the object of this study is the period of 1952-2012 the entire value of JCI. The sample used is the period of 2010-2012 the entire value JCI listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The data collected is secondary data with engineering documentation. The analytical method used is SEM (Structural Equation Modeling) which is operated through a program AMOS 22. From the analysis and discussion shows that the Domestic Interest Rate and Interest Rate Foreign Affairs has a significant effect on Exchange-exchange amount, partially negative effect Domestic Interest Rate Interest Rate Foreign and has a positive influence on Exchange-exchange amount. While the Exchange-exchange Rupiah positive effect on Composite Stock Price Index at the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

Modeling the Effect of Exchange Rate Liberalization on China’s Macro Economy

The empirical characteristics of domestic and foreign interest rate shocks are obtained by using VAR method: the domestic interest rate regulation is counter-cyclical, and the increase of foreign interest rate leads to the increase of domestic output and inflation. On this basis, we construct a small open dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory framework which reflects the empirical characteristics, including exchange rate control, to analyze the macroeconomic effects of exchange rate liberalization reform. By volatility simulation, impulse response and social welfare loss function analysis, the empirical results show that: firstly, exchange rate reform would increase volatility of output and exchange rate, but reduce volatility of inflation and interest rate. Secondly, exchange rate reform enhances the impact of domestic interest rate shocks on output and inflation. Which means the reform would improve the control ability of interest rate as a monetary policy tool. Moreover, the reform increases loss of social welfare. The conclusion shows that the exchange rate liberalization should be implemented step by step. The government should accelerate the reform when the external macro economy is stable. Otherwise it will cause a larger economic volatility.

Monetary Policy Response on Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Case of Indonesia

Bank Indonesia has been implementing Enhanced Inflation Targeting Framework (EITF) since few years ago. The main monetary instrument is short term policy interest rate. The policy interest rate, in this regard, may also have significant role in driving the exchange rate to its desired level. Setting appropriate the interest rate to drive the exchange rate is important to drive the actual inflation to its official target. In order to see the response of policy interest rate to exchange rate dynamics as well as the impact of exchange-rate dynamics to macroeconomic indicators, Structural Co-integrating Vector Auto Regression (SC-VAR) in an open economy model, is implemented. Its finding shows that exchange rate dynamic of USD/IDR has significantly positive relationship with domestic interest rate. The increase of the USD/IDR (depreciation) will then push domestic interest rate to increase.

IMF will worry about Cairo's debt burden later

Significance The review will take into account the effects of measures taken thus far, in particular the flotation of the Egyptian pound, and will assess the government’s budget for the 2017-18 (July-June) fiscal year. Impacts The government will struggle to reduce the deficit because of the scale of public debt and the record high domestic interest rate. Government expenditure on wages will rise at a much lower rate than inflation. The public will also face further rises in indirect taxation, revenue from which is projected to rise by 40%. The IMF is unlikely to raise any serious objections to the government’s plans.

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI PERMINTAAN INVESTASI DI INDONESIA

The main purpose of this research is to determine the effect of the domestic interest rate (IR) and the national income (NI) on the investment demand in Indonesia, whether through the domestic investment or the foreign direct investment (FDI). This research carried out in Indonesia with the secondary use of data during 2007-2016 which sourced from the central bureau of statistics (CBS) and Bank Indonesia (BI). The model analysis of the data is the econometric model through the ordinary least square (OLS) by using e-views programs in processing the research data. Based on the hypothesis, the domestic interest rate negatively effects the investment demand in Indonesia, and it is statistically significant. On the other hand, the national income (NI) positively effects the investment demand in Indonesia, and it is also statistically significant.Tujuan utama penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh Suku Bunga Dalam Negeri (IR) dan Pengaruh Pendapatan Nasional (NI) terhadap Permintaan Investasi di Indonesia, baik yang dilakukan Penanam Modal Dalam Negeri (PMDN) maupun Penanam Modal Asing (PMA). Penelitian ini dilaksanakan di Indonesia dengan menggunakan data sekunder dengan runtun waktu 2005 – 2013, yang bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Indonesia dan Bank Indonesia (BI). Model analisis data adalah model ekonometrika dengan metode persamaan Ordinary Least Square (OLS) dengan mempergunakan program eviews 4.1 sebagai pengolah data penelitian. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi, bahwa Suku Bunga Dalam Negeri (IR) berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan secara statistik terhadap permintaan investasi di Indonesia. Adapun Pendapatan Nasional (NI) berpengaruh positif dan signifikan secara statistik terhadap permintaan investasi di Indonesia.

Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal?

Motivated by the Chinese experience, we analyze an economy where the central bank has access to international capital markets, but the private sector does not. The central bank is modeled as a Ramsey planner who can choose the domestic interest rate and the level of international reserves. Consumers are credit-constrained as in Woodford (1990). We find that a rapidly growing economy has a higher welfare without capital mobility. In the Chinese context, we argue that the domestic interest rate should be temporarily above the international rate and that there should be more foreign asset accumulation than in an open economy. (JEL E58, E62, F32, F41, O19, O24, P33)