Gang violence highlights Venezuela security crisis

Significance The government claims opposition factions linked to Guaido are behind the upsurge of ‘GEDO’ violence (Grupo Estructurado de Delincuencia Organizada, or Structured Organised Crime Group). Efforts by security forces to ‘stabilise’ GEDO-dominated communities may portend an upsurge in state violence. Impacts The Haitian president’s killing has strengthened the government narrative of externally orchestrated mercenary warfare. Concerns about state decomposition in Venezuela will add urgency to international efforts at successful dialogue. An already weakened Guaido is on the back foot following Guevara’s arrest and lacks the authority to enforce any negotiated outcomes.

Subject Military pressures. Significance The military has become more visible in Ecuador in recent months, with soldiers and tanks deployed on the streets in October, to tackle protests over the elimination of fuel subsidies. Defence Minister Oswaldo Jarrin has become a focus of popular discontent with the security forces, which were accused of using excessive force to contain the unrest. The protests, together with increased drug trafficking and organised crime, have compounded pressures already faced by the security forces due to budget cuts, more of which are planned for 2020. Impacts Investigations into protester deaths will generate tensions between the government and security forces. Close attention will be paid to the tactics and force used by the security forces during future protests. Washington may use stronger Ecuador ties to bolster its presence in the Andean region.


Subject The militarisation of security. Significance Lack of police capability and the scale of Guatemala's security challenges mean that the military role in combatting organised crime will continue, despite concerns. President Jimmy Morales recently announced that the military would continue to support police with domestic security. This comes as security challenges remain acute, particularly in urban areas and the northern Peten department. Impacts Peten will remain the focus point of drug trafficking activity, though extortion in urban areas will be a more pressing concern. Public pressure for a tough approach to crime means that periodic excesses by security forces will continue to be tolerated. While Guatemala faces similar security challenges to neighbouring countries, there is little prospect of increased cooperation.


Significance Mawarire is the founder of the 'This Flag' movement, which has been a driving force behind a wave of demonstrations and strikes earlier this month against graft, unemployment and economic mismanagement by President Robert Mugabe's government. Impacts Import bans will adversely affect South African exporters, for whom Zimbabwe is a key regional market. Use of the South African rand in Zimbabwe will remain unpopular, due to concerns about its weakness against the dollar. The government will prioritise cash for paying the salaries of the security forces, since these underpin the regime's survival. Loans from the African Export-Import Bank will help Harare to begin paying the World Bank some of its arrears.


Subject The recapture of the world's most-wanted drug trafficker. Significance On January 8, federal police detained fugitive drug trafficker Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman Loera, following his high-profile escape from the maximum-security Altiplano prison on July 11. Both his escape and his recapture have generated considerable media attention, and could have ramifications for organised crime, the government of President Enrique Pena Nieto and US-Mexican relations. Impacts Another escape, though possible, is extremely unlikely. El Chapo's extradition may not take place until after the end of Pena Nieto's term. Any popularity increase for Pena Nieto resulting from the recapture will be short lived. While the Sinaloa cartel is relatively cohesive, it may splinter in the medium-to-long term.


Subject Deteriorating crime levels in Rio de Janeiro. Significance The government of Rio de Janeiro state, facing a financial crunch, has been accused of undermining the iconic police pacification programme tasked with fighting organised crime in its slums. This represents a blow to a security strategy credited with significantly reducing homicides before Rio's financial troubles began compromising the police presence in the slums from 2014 onwards. The latest budget cut comes precisely as a war between Rio's most powerful gangs intensifies. Impacts Recent reductions in funding and other resources will leave police unprepared to tackle the gang war in Rocinha. Criminal violence will damage Rio's attractiveness for tourists and business, further complicating the recent decline in oil revenues. The decline in the pacification strategy may undercut its importance as a promising model to be applied in other violent cities.


Subject Costa Rica drugs. Significance Costa Rican police on February 15 seized more than five tonnes of cocaine in a single operation -- the country’s largest-ever drugs seizure. The haul underlines the extent to which transnational drug-trafficking organisations have infiltrated the country, compounding concerns about related impacts on crime. The government of President Carlos Alvarado is currently implementing a new security strategy, but it is unclear how effective this will be in combating drug gangs. Impacts Costa Rica will seek extra security funding from partners such as the United States. Violence in neighbouring Nicaragua will exacerbate the pressures facing security forces along the border. The Limon region will be a bellwether for security trends as new infrastructure opens up the region.


2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 449-460 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Fitzpatrick

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to expose the failure of the criminal justice system of England and Wales to provide an effective response to widespread fraud and to point to sources from which a new doctrine may be created. The author’s approach draws on public sources, in particular, recent Home Office publications, the work of the House of Commons Home Affairs Committee and studies undertaken by the Mayor of London’s offices in 2014/2015. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a critical assessment of the criminal justice system based on the author’s own experience as a fraud prosecutor. Findings Among the findings is that, while the failings of the current system have been apparent for some years, the extent and depth of the same failings have not been publicly realised, nor sufficiently acknowledged by the authorities. It has become obvious that the traditional response of the criminal justice system, when employed against fraud, will fail for want of anything corresponding to the resources required. A new doctrine will emerge as the Proceeds of Crime Act 2002 is revised and more flexibly employed. The Criminal Finances Bill also holds much promise, in particular, with its new offences akin to money laundering and the provision of powers of investigation at a significantly lower level of command among investigators. However, there remains an apparent reluctance in law enforcement to explain its methodology or to support reform, which would allow a fuller sharing of intelligence and appreciations of threats posed by fraud derived from intelligence with the financial services sector and the victim public. Originality/value The value of the paper is derived from the author’s long experience as a fraud prosecutor and as an adviser to the government, on fraud and organised crime, in a closely related jurisdiction with similar problems, but where greater success has been achieved, namely, Hong Kong.


Significance Protests against President Enrique Pena Nieto's education reforms have intensified since June 19, when at least eight people were killed and more than 100 were injured in clashes with federal police in Oaxaca. While the CNTE and the government are in talks, they have so far failed to reach any meaningful agreements. The union has called for protests in other states where it is influential, such as Chiapas, Michoacan and Guerrero, as well as in Mexico City. Impacts The situation gives Lopez Obrador and Morena another platform on which to campaign ahead of 2018. The EPR's pledge of support for the CNTE raises the likelihood of further violence during the protests. The overlapping interests of the CNTE and its allies will polarise the situation further, making any solution more difficult.


Subject Prospects for Mexico and Central America in 2016. Significance Mexico and Central America will weather the economic slowdown that is affecting many emerging economies in 2016, with most countries doing well by broader regional standards. Security and governance are causes for concern regionwide. Both criminal and state violence will be major issues in Mexico and northern Central America, with increasing migration giving organised crime groups opportunities to diversify and potentially spread south, and heavy-handed policing exacerbating insecurity. Border security issues have the potential to strain relations between countries, while allegations of corruption will challenge governments, with numerous politicians potentially facing trial.


Subject Security concerns. Significance Although Costa Rica has long avoided the crime problems of its northern neighbours, a report released in June by its Judicial Investigation Agency found that the number of criminal groups operating in the country has increased over the last decade, with members of gangs (or 'maras') from the Northern Triangle countries of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador establishing a presence in Costa Rica. While the country remains one of the safest in the region, mara activity has had an impact on crime levels, pushing the government to take action. Impacts Increased mara activity may cause conflict with local gangs, particularly in urban areas. Initial successes in dismantling gangs may encourage other groups to try to fill the power vacuum. Pre-emptive action will slow the development of organised crime, but could encourage gangs to move to neighbouring countries.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document