IMF will strike a fine balance on Tunisian reforms

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Deal ◽  
Energy Subsidies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Priority ◽  
Phase Out ◽  
The Imf

Significance Kooli was in Washington to advance talks for a new IMF programme. Tunis has requested a multi-year USD4bn credit arrangement, on top of a USD745mn Rapid Financing Instrument that the lender approved in April 2020 to help Tunisia battle the COVID-19 crisis. Impacts Securing a new deal with the IMF will be the government’s highest policy priority. The government will focus on operationalising a new unit to centralise the management and restructuring of SOEs, which pose debt risks. To demonstrate commitment to reforms, the government will set in motion plans to phase out energy subsidies beginning late this year.

Port expansion will aid Morocco's trade hub ambitions

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Performance Index ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Priority ◽  
Logistics Performance Index ◽  
Port Expansion ◽  
The Imf

Subject Logistics performance. Significance Morocco's aspiration to become a trade and industrial hub for the Atlantic and Mediterranean basins has received a setback with the publication of the World Bank's 2016 Logistics Performance Index on June 28. Morocco's ranking fell to 86th place, from 50th in 2012. Impacts Morocco's fall in logistics performance and corruption rankings could be used to attack the government in the election campaign. It could also provide an incentive to reform the business environment, which the IMF has highlighted as a policy priority. Morocco's advantages compared to its regional peers will outweigh investor concerns over the rankings.

Ghana's IMF bailout to persist despite souring ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Financing ◽  
Electricity Crisis ◽  
Manufacturing Activity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance Earlier this month, the government passed a bill allowing for central bank financing of the budget deficit, contravening a core requirement in its agreement with the Fund. Earlier breaches led to the fourth tranche of the bailout (worth 114 million dollars) being withheld. Impacts Other donors will withhold aid disbursements until the impasse between Accra and the IMF is resolved. The electricity crisis will continue to undermine manufacturing activity, contributing to disappointing GDP growth. Ivory Coast's pro-business reforms mean it could attract investors deterred by Ghana's economic woes. Prolonged tensions with the IMF coupled with a deterioration its Ghana's fiscal metrics may drive a credit rating downgrade.

Higher Chile growth faces domestic and external risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance After four sluggish years, economic growth has been picking up steadily since mid-2017. However, as noted by Moody’s, medium-term prospects remain hampered by reliance on copper exports as, in the shorter term, has also been apparent in the context of the tariff war between the United States and China. Impacts According to the IMF, Chile will be the region’s fastest-growing economy this year, just ahead of Peru. The government will walk tightrope between a need for fiscal austerity and social demands. The tariff war will underscore the pressing need for diversification out of commodity exports.

Expansionary Jordanian budget will contain discontent

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Positive Signal ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Public Scrutiny ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance That comes as the country’s own parliament prepares to vote on the 2020 fiscal bill before the end of the year. Amman is currently in the last year of a 723-million-dollar IMF credit line, which required it to cut debt levels. The budget is intended to stimulate growth and stave off further protests, while simultaneously persuading the IMF to extend its credit line for another three years during upcoming talks in January. Impacts There will be closer cooperation between the government and parliament over managing the economy. Signs of unrest and public discontent over economic reforms will ease, notably if a tax evasion crackdown features on social media. Razzaz will survive another year as prime minister, having already served 18 months, sending a positive signal to the IMF and investors. King Abdullah and Queen Rania will come under less public scrutiny and distance themselves further from day-to-day politics.

Egypt’s slum development plan will be applied unevenly

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Informal Settlements ◽  
Development Plan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Priority

Subject Plans to rid Egypt of its slums. Significance Since President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi came to office in June 2014, the eradication of informal settlements has officially been a top policy priority. More than 20 billion Egyptian pounds (1.2 billion dollars) has been allocated to the development and demolition of 351 slum areas since 2014. In February, Sisi pledged to rid the country of its slums by 2030. However, concerns have been raised about the lack of consultation with the communities affected. Impacts The slum redevelopment plans will drive growth in investment in the real estate and construction sectors. Public spending will increase from subsidised provision of electricity, water and sewerage services. The government will boost revenues by selling repossessed land to the private sector. Lack of consultation with residents over relocation will drive resentment among many of the poorest segments of society.

Ghana euro-bond setback may force more austerity

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Commercial Environment ◽  
The Imf

Subject Ghana's debt strategy. Significance The government on October 2 suspended its fourth euro-bond sale after low investor interest. The planned 1.5-billion-dollar issue was a key pillar in the medium-term debt management plan under the country's IMF programme. However, rising interest rates on dollar-denominated bonds and the lack of confidence in Ghana's economy has proved it to be a risky strategy. Impacts Preferences for political continuity may see the IMF offer the government more leniency on expenditure targets as 2016 elections approach. The opposition New Patriotic Party needs to do more to capitalise on the economic crisis if it hopes to unseat the government. Appetite for Ghana's recovery among donors could see more concessional borrowing if the commercial environment remains difficult.

Chad’s Deby will tighten grip amid rising challenges

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Family Members ◽  
The United States ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Subject Political outlook for Chad. Significance In November, the government will likely miss a self-imposed deadline for holding long-delayed legislative elections. The real challenges to President Idriss Deby’s authority, however, may come from the country’s professional classes rather than the ballot box. Impacts Despite domestic turmoil, counterterrorism cooperation will likely keep Chad in the good graces of France and the United States. As budgetary difficulties persist, Chad will become increasingly beholden to international creditors and the IMF. Over the longer term, some of Deby’s associates and family members may grow restless as they wait for their turn in power.

Tensions will simmer in Ecuador despite subsidy U-turn

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Unions ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Action ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Indigenous Groups ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance The move, designed to help meet IMF loan conditions, triggered two weeks of protests by indigenous movements, trade unions, students and others, which brought the country to a halt and threatened to topple the government. Heavy-handed police and military action exacerbated the violence, which resulted in hundreds of arrests and at least eight deaths. Moreno’s U-turn has put an end to the unrest for now but deep divisions (and IMF requirements) remain. Impacts Correa and his supporters will seize on Moreno’s inability to maintain order and his decision to back down in the face of protests. Indigenous groups will be emboldened by Moreno’s U-turn and will continue resisting key elements of the government’s economic programme. Relations with the IMF have returned to centre stage and will shape the political landscape as the 2021 presidential elections approach.

Ukraine president gains from economic data and policy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Monetary Stability ◽  
Financial Restraint ◽  
President Elect ◽  
The Government ◽  
Constructive Engagement ◽  
The Imf

Significance The decision to reduce gas prices -- a gift to President-elect Volodymyr Zelensky, as it chimes with the anti-austerity messaging of his election campaign -- and not to raise them as the IMF wants, was officially announced on April 24. However, it was outlined by Prime Minister Volodymyr Groisman in March, before the election. Zelensky inherits an economy in recovery, although last year's growth rate was mostly due to maize, sunflower seed and little else. He has not yet articulated an economic programme, but his team is promising constructive engagement with the IMF, soothing concerns about anti-austerity populism. Impacts The disruption of supply chains and maritime freight mean Ukraine's economy will take years to return to 2013 levels. IMF support for monetary and financial restraint will encourage reformers in Moldova and other post-Soviet states to craft similar policies. With the advantage of monetary stability, the government is likely to use Eurobonds to restructure and service its foreign debt.

Pakistan opposition will push back on crackdown

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Internal Strain ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Subject Pakistan government's crackdown on the opposition. Significance The anti-corruption National Accountability Bureau (NAB) last week arrested former Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, who denies the charges against him. In recent weeks, the NAB has arrested several opposition politicians. Impacts The opposition will intensify its criticisms of the government's austerity measures, introduced in line with the IMF bailout. The government will likely see greater internal strain as it comes under growing pressure. The politically powerful military may try to exert more overt control over policy.

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