EU ‘protectionism’ risks a global backlash

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Green Energy ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Digital Commerce ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
Global Influence ◽  
Trump Administration ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU protectionism. Significance The EU is seeking to promote externally its norms on green energy and digital commerce, as well as taking a firmer approach on foreign investment. However, the approach will likely be interpreted as protectionist by the bloc’s trading partners and could prompt retaliation across different policy areas. Impacts UK absence from EU policy will mean the loss of a liberal voice both on trade policy and single market regulation. The EU will find it difficult to reform or even sustain WTO rules in the event of a second Trump administration. Increased tensions with trade partners could weaken the EU’s global influence in areas such as climate policy and technology regulation. Getting parliamentary approval for agreements with countries deemed to be pursuing climate-damaging polices will become much more difficult.

The EU’s international trade priorities are shifting

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Standards ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
Global Influence ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Border Adjustment

Significance From the strategy, it appears the EU no longer sees free trade deals as an end in themselves but as another instrument -- alongside tools such as Carbon Border Adjustment Measures (CBAM) and the International Procurement Instrument -- to protect the internal economy and enhance the EU’s global influence on climate change, human rights and labour standards. Impacts The EU’s increasingly protectionist trade agenda risks creating political tensions with trade partners. Closer EU-US cooperation on trade, among other areas, would weaken the prospects for stronger EU relations with China. As old industries die, the population ages and the EU moves towards digitisation, Europe could become more dependent on foreign innovation.

EU may struggle to enforce social standards via trade

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Environmental Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Standards ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
First Time ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
The Eu

Significance In 2020 the European Commission appointed a Chief Trade Enforcement Officer for the first time, signalling that Brussels is intent on enhancing its capacity to enforce standards agreed in trade deals. However, the EU's experience with South Korea suggests that holding trade partners to account over breaching standards will be difficult. Impacts Relations with trade partners could deteriorate if the EU is seen to be aggressive in enforcing its standards. Concern over China’s willingness to improve labour and environmental standards could impede ratification the EU-China investment agreement. The EU may be reluctant to sanction some partners, such as the United States, that breach labour or environmental standards.

Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
South Eastern Europe ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Eu

Subject Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe in 2017. Significance In the absence of robust business confidence, Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will implement short-term monetary and fiscal policies to support growth; GDP growth will suffer from global market vicissitudes and rising political tensions in key trading partners inside and outside the EU. The crisis in the EU will continue to bear down on South-Eastern Europe (SEE), bringing an effective end to the policy of enlargement.

Unstable politics may make trade deals uncertain

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Ideological Divergence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
The Eu

Subject Politics and trade talks. Significance Understanding the factors that determine how long trade negotiations take will help businesses navigate the uncertainty, as the UK government prepares to negotiate trade agreements once it leaves the EU. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the EU took seven years to finalise. Less comprehensive renegotiations of international agreements can be shorter, including the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, which took less than two years. Impacts UK sectors highly exposed to the EU or United States, including automotive and financial services, face prolonged investment uncertainty. Timing of national elections, lobbying and the ideological divergence between trade partners will determine post-Brexit trade deal talks. Continued polarisation of major economies' electorates will delay or stop other global deals, including on foreign aid and climate change.

Australia investment limits may slow COVID-19 recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Outward Fdi ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Small Market ◽  
Negative Message ◽  
Return Home ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
Global Growth

Significance The changes have been made as part of Australia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. They are intended to safeguard assets from bargain hunters while businesses recover from COVID-19’s fallout. Impacts A portion of Australia's outward FDI will return home as global growth slows, offsetting lower inward FDI. A relatively small market will make it difficult to build up domestic industries amid lower FDI. Delaying project approvals will send a negative message to foreign investment and trade partners.

New Turkish Cypriot leader is chance for settlement

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Support ◽  
Turkish Cypriot ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Eu

Significance Reunion of the island is now an option, for the first time since the Turkish invasion of 1974. There is strong international support, but designing a deal acceptable to both sides may be more difficult than some politicians and public opinion on both sides suppose. Tough choices and sophisticated compromises will be necessary in the next few months and may not be forthcoming. Yet among both Greek and Turkish Cypriots, there are expectations that a settlement could revitalise the island, where both sides' economies are stagnating. Impacts Agreement would ease decades-old tensions between Greece and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean, benefiting NATO and the EU. However, a settlement would not significantly unblock the path of Turkey's EU accession bid. Cyprus would become a more appealing destination for foreign investment and tourism. With left-wing politicians on both sides deciding the deal, NATO and US interests would have to be safeguarded during talks. Turkey must decide how to respond to the unwinding of a four decades-old foreign policy.

EU Energy Plan faces two-year uphill battle

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Policy ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Union ◽  
Long Line ◽  
Eu Energy Policy ◽  
Energy Diplomacy ◽  
The Eu

Significance The proposals are the latest in a long line of attempts to establish a more integrated approach to energy policy within the EU and greater coordination of energy diplomacy with the rest of the world. The latest scheme, conceived against the background of deteriorating relations with Russia and amid fears for the bloc's energy security, originated in calls from former Polish Prime Minister (now President of the European Council) Donald Tusk for the EU to act collectively to boost its indigenous energy resources and negotiate collectively with energy exporters. Impacts The Energy Union could help to enhance EU energy policy and diplomacy but stops well short of centralising energy policy decisions. It is unclear how far member states will be willing to delegate responsibilities in areas such as market regulation and energy diplomacy. It is uncertain how far the Commission will be prepared to use enforcement powers where member states fail to meet existing commitments.

EU will push for granting MES to China

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Excess Capacity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fabricated Metal ◽  
Electric Machinery ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Metal Products ◽  
Chemical Products ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Significance If not offset by other changes, this will result in lower duties on Chinese imports found to have been dumped in the European market. Such a decision will be commercially significant for sectors where dumping investigations are rife and excess capacity is pervasive, such as basic metals, fabricated metal products, glass and related products, chemical products and electric machinery. Impacts The Commission will use other forms of discretion for dumping investigations, limiting the impact of granting MES to China. Firms seeking relief from Chinese competition will complement dumping complaints with other allegations of unfair trading practices. Granting MES to China and reforming the EU trade system will affect all EU trading partners. The US disagreement on China's MES is unlikely to colour other areas of EU-US commercial diplomacy, including the TTIP negotiations.

Economic woes to mark succession preparation in Cuba

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Profile ◽  
Step Down ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Cuban economy. Significance Less than three months before President Raul Castro is due to step down from the state leadership, Cuba’s economy is in decline and its reform process has stalled. Castro’s heir apparent, Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel, is keeping a low profile and promising continuity. An emerging independent media is causing concern in government circles but has not yet led to a crackdown. Impacts The economic downturn will strain society but an outburst of social unrest remains unlikely for now. As US pressure and domestic tensions rise, Havana will strive for cohesion, even if this stalls economic reform. Trump's confrontational politics force Havana to seek foreign investment elsewhere and to maintain good relations with the EU and Canada.

US tariffs will test trade alliances and architecture

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Comment ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Tit For Tat ◽  
Property Transfers ◽  
The Eu

Significance The USTR will subject 284 more products worth 16 billion dollars to public comment. President Donald Trump is intensifying his efforts to return manufacturing to the United States by imposing steep tariffs on industrial imports from leading trading partners including China, the EU, Canada, Mexico and Japan. China’s finance ministry announced it would impose matching tariffs on 545 categories of US imports from the same date. Tit-for-tat retaliation and belligerent rhetoric are exacerbating concerns about the broader challenge to the global trade regime. Impacts North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations are unlikely to conclude in 2018, increasing the chance of US withdrawal. Trade splits with allies will damage Washington's ability to coordinate efforts to confront China on unfair intellectual property transfers. Globally integrated manufacturing supply chains and financial markes will cause US-China trade actions to impact firms in many countries. Cross-border investment fell by 23% in 2017 according to the United Nations -- another fall is likely this year due to the trade conflict.

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