Lahore blast augurs uptick in India-Pakistan tensions

Significance Pakistan last week accused India’s foreign intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), of orchestrating the attack. Delhi denies the allegation. Meanwhile, there are widespread suspicions that responsibility may lie with Islamic State (IS) or the Pakistani Taliban Movement (TTP). Impacts The TTP will try to strengthen its presence in Pakistan, eyeing control over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province’s tribal areas. IS attacks in Pakistan will continue to focus on the Shia minority. Delhi and Islamabad will each try harder to mobilise international opinion against the other.

Subject Pakistan's Pashtun Tahafuz Movement. Significance The Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) is reshaping Pakistani politics ahead of the general election later this month. The non-violent movement seeks greater rights for ethnic Pashtuns. It protests against what it regards as military abuses in tribal areas, racial profiling by state authorities and internal displacement. Impacts PTM rallies will continue through election campaigning, and counter-rallies could increase the risk of violence. The new government will expedite the merger of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The Afghan government will further express sympathy for the PTM but will not extend any practical support.


Significance However, even in this extremity, it maintains a hostile attitude to old enemy Islamic State (IS). In Yemen, the other regional country where the two come into close contact, the local al-Qaida branch in its August 28 newsletter also strongly attacked IS, accusing it of fomenting intra-Muslim divisions. Impacts Even those al-Qaida supporters claiming to see a more ‘moderate’ trend in IS only identify a long-term possibility of rapprochement. As the Syrian conflict winds down, IS and HTS may step up competition, as insurgent cells launch terrorist attacks from desert bases. Splits between the different al-Qaida branches could worsen as some seek more pragmatic alliances and others prioritise ideological purity. In Yemen, al-Qaida’s deeper societal roots will give it greater long-term resilience than IS.


Significance The TTP, emboldened by the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, has intensified its insurgency in recent weeks. The group was formed in 2007 in North Waziristan, at that time part of Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The FATA were merged with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province in 2018. Impacts The talks may, depending on how they progress, give the Pakistani government a template for negotiating with other hostile jihadist groups. Implementing sharia law in the ex-FATA would prompt demands for similar moves in other parts of Pakistan. Pashtun nationalists will strongly oppose any concessions that Islamabad makes to the TTP.


Subject Proposed merger of Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Significance A multi-party conference on October 3 in Peshawar called for the merger of Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province and an end to the draconian special laws governing FATA. A large demonstraton staged in Islamabad on October 9 by parliamentarians from the FATA demanded that the government push through the plans. Impacts Integrating FATA with KP may help curb weapons and narcotics smuggling. Pakistan may face protests from tribal communities over the fence it is building along the border with Afghanistan. The United States may be less inclined to threaten drone strikes in Pakistan.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-66
Author(s):  
Judith Corcoba ◽  
Raigam Jafet Martinez Portilla

Purpose Jihadist terrorism is one of the most important current global issues. Terrorism is an instrument of fear and fear an instrument of news. The purpose of this paper is to understand the difference in propaganda between the most powerful terrorist groups and the association with the Islamic State group (ISIS). Design/methodology/approach This cross-sectional study has been carried out on the usage of propagandistic material. For the analyses, two different groups have been created, propaganda emitted from the Islamic State group and propaganda from the other main terrorist groups (Boko Haram, Taliban, Al-Qaeda). Findings It has been proved that there are significant differences between the Islamic State propaganda and the other main groups. Originality/value This study has been conducted in order to provide a comparison of the propaganda content of the main jihadist groups.


Subject The risk of ISG-linked activity in Pakistan. Significance There is little evidence to date of any Islamic State group (ISG) leader travelling to Pakistan from their group's Middle Eastern heartland. However, an estimated 500 Pakistanis have travelled to Iraq and Syria to fight alongside ISG. Some of these combatants have returned to Pakistan. Within Pakistan, insurgents linked to various splinter militants groups, including al-Qaida, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) have sworn their allegiance to ISG. Impacts Afghanistan-Pakistan security cooperation would help curb ISG, but the two sides remain divided over other key differences. Pakistan-linked militants in Kashmir are aligned with the interests of the Pakistani military, containing the ISG threat to India. Regions most at risk of ISG expansion are Pakistan's tribal areas and provinces along the Af-Pak border.


Significance Karimov's death leaves a void since governance stemmed from him and his ability to coerce and manage Uzbekistan's regional groupings and key political and business players. The National Security Service (SNB), a powerful political force in its own right with connections and placemen throughout government, will play kingmaker. Impacts The other four Central Asian states will watch nervously and hope for less erratic and aggressive Uzbek leadership. Severe economic problems will increase pressure for market reforms which Karimov shirked. With no political alternatives, violent extremism inspired by Islamic State group remains a stability risk.


Subject Parallel insurgencies in Balochistan province. Significance Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for a January 10 blast in Quetta, saying it was targeting an Afghan Taliban mosque; the attack was probably retaliation for a Taliban offensive that late last year pushed IS out of Afghanistan’s eastern province of Nangarhar. Quetta is the capital of Pakistan’s Balochistan province, where IS, the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and ethnic Baloch nationalist insurgents are all active. Pakistan’s key ally China is investing heavily in Balochistan under the rubric of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Impacts The main threat to Pakistan's security will be in Balochistan, especially as insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province is much reduced. Tensions between Pakistan and IS will likely increase. An alliance between IS and the TTP would lead to a considerable upsurge in violence in Quetta.


1999 ◽  
Vol 91 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Ohata ◽  
Toshihiro Takami ◽  
Alaa El-Naggar ◽  
Michiharu Morino ◽  
Akimasa Nishio ◽  
...  

✓ The treatment of spinal intramedullary arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) with a diffuse-type nidus that contains a neural element poses different challenges compared with a glomus-type nidus. The surgical elimination of such lesions involves the risk of spinal cord ischemia that results from coagulation of the feeding artery that, at the same time, supplies cord parenchyma. However, based on evaluation of the risks involved in performing embolization, together with the frequent occurrence of reperfusion, which necessitates frequent reembolization, the authors consider surgery to be a one-stage solution to a disease that otherwise has a very poor prognosis. Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging revealed diffuse-type intramedullary AVMs in the cervical spinal cords of three patients who subsequently underwent surgery via the posterior approach. The AVM was supplied by the anterior spinal artery in one case and by both the anterior and posterior spinal arteries in the other two cases. In all three cases, a posterior median myelotomy was performed up to the vicinity of the anterior median fissure that divided the spinal cord together with the nidus, and the feeding artery was coagulated and severed at its origin from the anterior spinal artery. In the two cases in which the posterior spinal artery fed the AVM, the feeding artery was coagulated on the dorsal surface of the spinal cord. Neurological outcome improved in one patient and deteriorated slightly to mildly in the other two patients. Postoperative angiography demonstrated complete disappearance of the AVM in all cases. Because of the extremely poor prognosis of patients with spinal intramedullary AVMs, this surgical technique for the treatment of diffuse-type AVMs provides acceptable operative outcome. Surgical intervention should be considered when managing a patient with a diffuse-type intramedullary AVM in the cervical spinal cord.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 328-341
Author(s):  
Rifki Ismal ◽  
Nurul Izzati Septiana

Purpose The demand for Saudi Arabian real (SAR) is very high in the pilgrimage (hajj) season while the authority, unfortunately, does not hedge the hajj funds. As such, the hajj funds are potentially exposed to exchange rate risk, which can impact the value of hajj funds and generate extra cost to the pilgrims. The purpose of this paper is to conduct simulations of Islamic hedging for pilgrimage funds to: mitigate and minimize exchange rate risk, identify and recommend the ideal time, amount and tenors of Islamic hedging for hajj funds, estimate cost saving by pursuing Islamic hedging and propose technical and general recommendations for the authority. Design/methodology/approach Forward transaction mechanism is adopted to compute Islamic forward between SAR and Rupiah (Indonesian currency) or IDR. Findings – based on simulations, the paper finds that: the longer the Islamic hedging tenors, the better is the result of Islamic hedging, the decreasing of IDR/USD is the right time to hedge the hajj funds and, on the other hand, the IDR/SAR appreciation is not the right time to hedge the hajj funds. Findings Based on simulations, the paper finds that: the longer the Islamic hedging tenors, the better is the result of Islamic hedging, the decreasing of IDR/USD is the right time to hedge the hajj funds and, on the other hand, the IDR/SAR appreciation is not the right time to hedge the hajj funds. Research limitations/implications The research suggests the authority to (and not to) hedge the hajj fund, depending on economic conditions and market indicators. Even though the assessment is for the Indonesian case, other countries maintaining hajj funds might also learn from this paper. Originality/value To the best of author’s knowledge, this is the first paper in Indonesia that attempts to simulate the optimal hedging of hajj funds.


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