Iran-US nuclear deal miscalculation risks are rising

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Military Action ◽  
Security Guards ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
The Us

Significance They are key signatories of the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which Tehran has progressively breached following the US withdrawal. Although new President Ibrahim Raisi says Iran will return to the stalled talks aimed at restoring the deal, he is in no hurry and shows no inclination to compromise. Impacts Reports that Iranian security guards physically harassed female IAEA inspectors may harden Western attitudes. Failing a deal, the Biden administration could again tighten sanctions, for instance on Chinese oil purchases from Iran. Military action by Israel -- tacitly approved or openly backed by Washington -- becomes more likely as Tehran amasses weapons material. Neither sanctions nor military action are likely to coerce Iran effectively.

Iran nuclear deal uncertainty may deter EU investors

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
National Interest ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Large Firms ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
The Us

Significance US President Donald Trump declined to certify on October 13 that continued sanctions relief for Iran under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is in the US national interest. Reintroducing nuclear-related sanctions targeting third-country companies doing business with Iran -- ‘secondary sanctions’ -- could have a significant impact on European investments in Iran. Impacts With financing a requirement for business engagement, banks’ hesitation to engage with Iran will curb European investments. Transatlantic sanctions policy coordination is likely to deteriorate further, with the private sector caught in the crossfire. High-value hydrocarbons and aircraft contracts may make investing in Iran worth the risk for large firms, but other sectors may not follow.

Partners will struggle to save the Iran nuclear deal

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Dispute Settlement ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Dispute Settlement Mechanism ◽  
Nuclear Facilities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Partner

Significance Trump described the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as "defective at its core". Iran's compliance has repeatedly been verified, but the agreement has never operated as intended. Uncertainty over Washington's future commitment reduced economic benefits to Tehran and blocked Iran's reintegration into the global economy. Impacts Except for a few high-profile deals, Europe is eclipsed as an Iranian trade partner by China, which could gain from a JCPOA breakdown. A US or Israeli strike on Iran might target utility infrastructure rather than nuclear facilities, given the environmental risks. If Iran used the dispute settlement mechanism against the US violation, it could risk automatic 'snapback' of multilateral sanctions.

Iraq sees rising risk of a US-Iran clash in 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Action ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
Warning Services

Significance These have caused the United States to begin the process of shuttering its Baghdad embassy -- while signalling that it could reverse the process if the government moves more aggressively against pro-Iran groups within the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) that are blamed for the strikes. Impacts Groups will step up attacks designed to lever the US-led coalition out of Iraq, while seeking to mask their identity. The United States will have greater latitude for military action to weaken Tehran in November or December, if it closes the embassy. Japanese, Saudi, Emirati and some European embassies relying on US evacuation and warning services might also be forced out. Washington might opt instead to downsize the embassy, which cannot operate normally due to COVID-19 and security threats. Even if the US embassy closed, some coalition military sites and the US consulate in the Kurdistan region would remain open.

US ‘big tech’ and organised workers will clash

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Support Staff ◽  
Employee Rights ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Unions ◽  
Security Guards ◽  
Gig Economy ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The Us

Subject Organised workers and 'big tech'. Significance Given the US big tech’s high margins and large numbers of support staff, labour unions have made some inroads in organising their contract staff such as drivers, security guards and cafeteria workers. Tech companies have also seen increases in employee activism such as walkouts, although this has stopped short of full unionisation drives. Impacts The spread of the gig economy will sharpen political scrutiny of corporate practices on employee rights. Democratic politicians, in particular, will struggle to court both big tech and unions. Firms will partner with the NLRB, where possible, to prevent employees from using internal emails and messaging apps to stage strikes.

Wary Gulf states will struggle for consensus on Iran

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
The Us ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Security Concerns

Significance European-backed negotiations in Vienna to bring the United States and Iran back into compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal have changed the strategic environment for the Gulf states. They look to the US-promised ‘follow-on negotiations’ to meet their regional security concerns, but are also opening direct lines to Tehran. Impacts If direct Iran-GCC negotiations proceed, they will likely focus on practical confidence-boosting measures within the Gulf itself. Reconciliation with Qatar and a new Kuwaiti GCC Secretary General may allow the GCC to play a larger role in any follow-on talks. Emirati and Bahraini (and possibly Saudi) representatives may coordinate US messaging on Iran with Israeli counterparts.

Congress offers few limits on US military action

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Coming Out ◽  
Cruise Missile ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Military Action ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Executive Authority ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance The US cruise missile strike in response to the Syrian government’s nerve agent attack and hawkish rhetoric coming out of the White House about North Korea have highlighted the legal leeway for the president to order pre-emptive military action under executive authority without securing congressional approval in advance. The Trump administration ordering unilateral operations could set the presidency against Congress over the making of foreign policy and shape the political calculus of the White House when mulling military action. Impacts The Syria strike may revive the AUMF debate in Congress about updating legal authority for anti-IS military operations. Making threats to international adversaries could lock the White House into unintended escalations to avoid losing face. Repeated military operations without congressional buy-in could see greater contestation of Trump’s international agenda by Congress.

EU-Iran payment scheme to focus on humanitarian trade

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Payment Scheme ◽  
Special Purpose Vehicle ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU-Iran humanitarian trade. Significance Following the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the EU is close to launching a mechanism to facilitate trade with Iran in spite of stringent US sanctions. This special purpose vehicle (SPV) is likely to be released in the coming weeks. Its scope will be less ambitious than originally conceived and will, in its initial version, be restricted to trade in humanitarian and sanctions-exempt goods. Impacts The SPV may strengthen political support in Iran for continued participation in the JCPOA. Unity within the EU will be tested as some member states are more hesitant about disrupting the transatlantic partnership. As the humanitarian impact of US sanctions increases, pushback from the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives is more likely.

The United States and the Iranian Nuclear Programme

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Hurst
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nixon Administration ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Issue ◽  
The Relationship

The United States, Iran and the Bomb provides the first comprehensive analysis of the US-Iranian nuclear relationship from its origins through to the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. Starting with the Nixon administration in the 1970s, it analyses the policies of successive US administrations toward the Iranian nuclear programme. Emphasizing the centrality of domestic politics to decision-making on both sides, it offers both an explanation of the evolution of the relationship and a critique of successive US administrations' efforts to halt the Iranian nuclear programme, with neither coercive measures nor inducements effectively applied. The book further argues that factional politics inside Iran played a crucial role in Iranian nuclear decision-making and that American policy tended to reinforce the position of Iranian hardliners and undermine that of those who were prepared to compromise on the nuclear issue. In the final chapter it demonstrates how President Obama's alterations to American strategy, accompanied by shifts in Iranian domestic politics, finally brought about the signing of the JCPOA in 2015.

War and Terror

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avinash Paliwal
Keyword(s):  
War On Terror ◽  
Global War On Terror ◽  
Military Action ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Global War

The Taliban’s destruction of the Bamiyan Buddha in March 2001 outraged India (and the world). It killed any scope for conciliation with the Taliban. In this context, the US decision to take military action in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks was welcomed by many in India. However, Washington’s decision to undertake such action without UN approval (which came only in December 2001) sparked another round of debate between the partisans and the conciliators. As this chapter shows, the former were enthusiastic about supporting the US in its global war on terror, but the latter advocated caution given Washington’s willingness to partner with Islamabad. Despite the global trend to ‘fight terrorism’, the conciliators were successful in steering India away from getting involved in Afghanistan militarily.

OCIE issues risk alert on the most frequently identified advisory fee and expense compliance issues

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-3
Author(s):  
Robert Van Grover
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Investment Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Informed Decisions ◽  
Policies And Procedures ◽  
The Us ◽  
Investment Advisers ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose To summarize and interpret a Risk Alert issued on April 12, 2018 by the US SEC’s Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations (OCIE) on the most frequent advisory fee and expense compliance issues identified in recent examinations of investment advisers. Design/methodology/approach Summarizes deficiencies identified by the OCIE staff pertaining to advisory fees and expenses in the following categories: fee billing based on incorrect account valuations, billing fees in advance or with improper frequency, applying incorrect fee rates, omitting rebates and applying discounts incorrectly, disclosure issues involving advisory fees, and adviser expense misallocations. Findings In the Risk Alert, OCIE staff emphasized the importance of disclosures regarding advisory fees and expenses to the ability of clients to make informed decisions, including whether or not to engage or retain an adviser. Practical implications In light of the issues identified in the Risk Alert, advisers should assess the accuracy of disclosures and adequacy of policies and procedures regarding advisory fee billing and expenses. As a matter of best practice, advisers should implement periodic forensic reviews of billing practices to identify and correct issues relating to fee billing and expenses. Originality/value Expert guidance from experienced investment management lawyer.

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