Intra-elite rivalries shape Algerian economic policies

Significance The statement comes against a move by Bouteflika to undercut an effort by Ouyahia to promote privatisation as part of a strategy for dealing with the sharp fall in oil and gas revenue, which has saddled the country with large fiscal and balance-of-payments deficits. Bouteflika’s intervention took the form of a decree stating that his office must have the final say on the sale of any state asset. It was issued within days of Ouyahia announcing a new privatisation policy. Impacts There is a risk that the combination of supply restrictions and loose monetary policy will drive up inflation. The import ban will attract foreign investors to import substitution projects, but they will be loath to put in much capital and technology. Checking Ouyahia’s ambitions is an important element in the plans for Bouteflika’s circle to prolong their grip on power.

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (05) ◽  
pp. 122-125
Author(s):  
Kamil Sayavush Demirli ◽  

Key words: monetary policy, commodity trade foreign exchange reserves, balance of payments, oil and gas, balance, transportation, transit service, international, capital, perspective


Subject Divisions in financial institutions. Significance The finance ministry of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) on December 21 called for an urgent meeting of the board of the Central Bank of Libya. More effective financial institutions could provide a strong basis for political reunification and economic revival. Yet the political crisis, corruption and pre-existing weaknesses undermine these institutions. Impacts The GNA will struggle to finance consistent basic services and implement coherent economic policies. Libyans will continue to lose confidence in the GNA, especially if the economy does not pick up. The NOC will still court international oil and gas companies to attract new investment.


Significance Its fairness has been challenged by the opposition and international observers. Erdogan is nevertheless pressing ahead with consolidating his authority; in the coming months he will shake up Turkey's administrative system. Impacts Erdogan will remain firmly in control inside Turkey and the opposition will be further marginalised. Business confidence in Istanbul will remain low. The government will seek foreign investors in such sectors as mining to help ease balance of payments difficulties.


Subject France's manufacturing outlook. Significance France’s manufacturing sector has been the most attractive in Europe for foreign investors over the past ten years but the structural challenges within the sector, most notably the shift from manufacturing towards an economy based more on services, look set to deepen. Impacts Plans to reindustrialise parts of rural France may attract investment, but getting people to live there will be difficult. The ECB is likely to loosen monetary policy, and manufacturers borrowing at lower rates would boost euro-area industry. The threat of social unrest in urban areas may deter potential investors.


Significance The first policy loosening in more than six years highlights government concerns about the challenging outlook for bank lending. The plunge in global oil prices and sharp depreciation of the naira are severely testing the resilience of the recently reformed banking sector. Impacts The rate cut reveals that the government's priority is to boost the lending environment over using tighter monetary policy as a stabiliser. However, the effect of the stimulus on inflation and growth will only become apparent next year. Balance-of-payments crisis warnings do not take into account fairly sound debt ratios and reserve levels.


Significance One of the symptoms of the policy drift that has characterised Algeria during the latter part of Bouteflika’s rule has been the steady exodus of qualified professionals towards Europe, the Gulf and North America. The government and major employers such as Sonatrach, the national oil and gas corporation, have recognised the gravity of this problem, but have so far failed to implement effective remedies. Impacts Improving working conditions for state-sector workers will require more investment, leading to external borrowing and increased taxation. Providing more incentives for private business and foreign investors may encourage companies to devote resources to harnessing local skills. The reforms being undertaken within Sonatrach could be a model for other sectors if they succeed in creating a more satisfied workforce.


Significance However, the prospects of a sustained recovery are clouded by fiscal weakness, a precarious balance-of-payments position, a deteriorating business environment and the threat of international sanctions on the financial sector. The country's most vulnerable communities are yet to recover from the damage wrought by Hurricanes Eta and Iota. Impacts An accommodative monetary policy will be maintained in an effort to support economic recovery. Ortega’s control over the judiciary will heighten legal uncertainty and erode the ability of investors to enforce contracts. The prolonged depreciation of the Cordoba will increase servicing costs of public and private dollar-denominated debts. Refugee outflows will intensify after November’s elections, with knock-on effects for the rest of the region.


1963 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 349-370
Author(s):  
Syed Nawab Haider Naqvi

The purpose of this study is to examine Pakistan's foreign-trade problems and policies in the context of the wider question of a rational allocation of domestic resources. It will be argued that measures taken in Pakistan to regulate the flow of imports and exports have led to a pattern of resource allocation which may aggravate the balance-of-payments problem. The difficulty is mainly attributable to the fact that foreign economic policies and policy measures taken to regulate the domestic economy have often been at cross-purposes. For instance, whereas the domestic .investment policy has aimed at promoting the most economical use of scarce investment resources, the licensing system has provided strong incentive for a wasteful use of these resources by encouraging import substitution even where the country may have a long-run comparative disadvantage. While domestic policy has aimed at raising the marginal rate of savings, the policy of protecting consumption goods, particularly the nonessential ones, has tended to liberalize consumption.


Significance Boosting exports would stabilise Kenya's account and reduce the risk of currency depreciation, both important for Nairobi's ability to manage public debt. Kenya has increased borrowing in recent years in part to fund projects designed to grow the economy. Impacts Threats of al-Shabaab attacks will depress incoming tourism, a source of foreign currency. National elections in 2017 will limit the government's scope for austerity and delay improvements in the fiscal deficit. Increasing inflation will erode government revenues and encourage contractionary monetary policy decisions. Net outflows on the balance of payments and declining foreign reserves will restrict the central bank's ability to intervene in shocks.


Subject Russian import substitution for machinery and equipment. Significance In response to sectoral sanctions imposed by the United States and EU since 2014, the Russian government has pursued an economy-wide import substitution programme to encourage local development and production of technologies. The policy will be sustained because no end to Western sanctions is in sight, and it fits the government's broader aim of encouraging competitive hi-tech industries and -- for political as well as economic reasons -- making Russia less dependent on more advanced economies as well as on its own oil and gas sector. Impacts The government's commitment to fiscal discipline will restrict funding to projects with verifiable future payback. Spare capacity in the hi-tech defence sector will be turned towards non-military production, probably beyond 2020. Import substitution necessitated by Russia's 2014 ban on certain food imports have spurred crop diversification and growth in farming.


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