Western Balkans will divide over regional market idea

Significance They have backed it with EUR9bn (USD10.5bn) in EU grants to develop cross-border infrastructure. In parallel, academics and think tanks, most recently the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, have been promoting the idea of regional economic integration. Impacts The Commission is promoting deeper regional economic integration as a preparation for the EU single market. The World Bank estimates that eliminating regional customs barriers would save 30 million man-hours a year and save exporters USD3.2bn. Tensions may rise among non-Serb majorities in Bosnia, Kosovo and Montenegro, which have large Serb minority populations.

Significance The summit’s avowed aim was to renew the EU-US ‘Transatlantic partnership’, including committing to upholding the international rules-based order built around the UN. It called for cooperation with Russia in areas of common interest despite its repeated “negative behaviour”. Such strains include Russia’s opposition to appointing a new high representative for Bosnia. Impacts Vucic’s call for regular reports from the high representative recognises his legitimacy while asserting Serbian interest in BiH. Croatian President Zoran Milanovic’s support for the 1995 Dayton agreement weakens outside backing for Bosnian Croat separatism. The World Bank has left its growth forecast for BiH unchanged from January, provided vaccine roll-out accelerates.


Significance Mawarire is the founder of the 'This Flag' movement, which has been a driving force behind a wave of demonstrations and strikes earlier this month against graft, unemployment and economic mismanagement by President Robert Mugabe's government. Impacts Import bans will adversely affect South African exporters, for whom Zimbabwe is a key regional market. Use of the South African rand in Zimbabwe will remain unpopular, due to concerns about its weakness against the dollar. The government will prioritise cash for paying the salaries of the security forces, since these underpin the regime's survival. Loans from the African Export-Import Bank will help Harare to begin paying the World Bank some of its arrears.


Significance While Lebanon is experiencing what the World Bank dubbed “the worst economic crisis in more than a century”, civil war-torn Syria has been hit by one of the most severe droughts of the past decade. An estimated 77% of Lebanese households do not have enough food, and almost all Syrians suffer from reduced availability. Impacts Neighbouring countries such as Jordan and Turkey will be the first affected by any new migration wave. The EU may also see more migration from the Levant as a result of food insecurity. The return of Syrian refugees from Lebanon could increase pressure on the humanitarian aid sector in Syria. Israel may more tightly secure its Lebanese and Syrian borders for fear of spillover from rising tensions.


2006 ◽  
Vol 58 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 84-103
Author(s):  
Pero Petrovic ◽  
Miroslav Antevski

In analyzing regional economic integration in Europe the authors pay special attention to the development in the European Union, for other forms of regional or sub regional integration at the continent are in fact mostly transitional and provisional, and directly connected with EU. The authors argue that in spite of considerable success and high level of integration of the EU, several important open issues remain in that process. They are results of mixed character of European integration: political and economic. Too many kinds of interests are of opposed character, and it is very hard to harmonize them in real politics. The main problems in the EU have their cause in the nature of European integration: international competitiveness of European economy, social character of European states, national productivity, challenges of enlargement.


Subject Customs union. Significance On June 26, Presidents Jimmy Morales of Guatemala and Juan Orlando Hernandez of Honduras formally launched a customs union between their countries, in an effort to boost trade by reducing or eliminating tariffs. The arrangement is the first of its type in Central America and may prove a step towards greater regional economic integration. Impacts The union may attract greater foreign investment, by allowing potential investors to spread operations across two countries. Bilateral moves may allow integration to advance in easily negotiable areas, while problematic issues such as border disputes are deferred. Washington’s recently stated intention to maintain tariff-free trade within NAFTA should ease concerns regarding the future of DR-CAFTA. Increased US deportations will further discourage moves towards more open borders, particularly between the north and south of the Isthmus.


Author(s):  
Jan Klabbers

This chapter addresses some of the complexities of having regional economic integration organizations (above all the European Union) participate in treaty-making under UN auspices. Discussing conceptual matters such as how participation can take place (as full member, as observer, or anything in-between), it delves into some of the relevant legal issues on both sides of the equation: on the part of the regional economic integration organization as well as on the part of the UN and specialized agencies, devoting some attention to the solutions agreed upon within the framework of the Food and Agricultural Organization when it admitted the EU as a member in its own right. These include the delegation and distribution of treaty-making powers, negotiating mandates, and the like, as well as some practical matters. The discussion is situated against a backdrop of functionalist theorizing about the law of international organizations.


Significance Since joining the EU in 2007, Bulgaria has touted its role as an advocate for further enlargement. In reality, its contribution to the Union’s policy in the Western Balkans or the Black Sea has been meagre. Impacts The Commission may partly fund cross-border projects advanced by member states in South-eastern Europe, but implementation will be slow. Bulgaria is pitching to abolish roaming charges within the Western Balkans as well as between the region and the EU. The EU-Turkey summit in Varna could be called off at the last minute because of rows with EU member states, notably Cyprus.


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