Energy costs will squeeze Greek firms’ profitability

Significance During the coming winter months October-March, rising electricity and heating prices will reduce household disposable income, dampening domestic demand. The low profitability of Greek corporates makes them particularly vulnerable to an additional squeeze on profit margins due to rising energy costs. Impacts The European energy crisis could dampen popular support for greater use of renewable energy sources. Privatisation of DEPA Commercial might be put on hold to offer the government more control over price setting. New investments in gas storage facilities could hedge against future supply shocks. The rising prices of fertilisers will push up costs in agriculture and could undermine future output if less fertiliser is used.

Significance At its first meeting of 2017, on January 10-11, the COPOM reduced the benchmark Selic interest rate to 13%. The 75-basis-point (bp) rate cut decision, the largest in nearly five years, accelerated the monetary easing cycle that started in October 2016. Economic recession has been relieving inflationary pressures and opening room for more intense cuts in interest rates. Impacts Further reductions of interest rates may contribute to controlling government debt. Private debt renegotiations at lower interest rates may facilitate a recovery in domestic demand and output. Any positive effects of monetary policy on activity may help contain popular dissatisfaction with the government.


Significance In a bid to quell the protests, President Serzh Sargsyan has announced that the government will subsidise the increase until the completion of an independent audit into the operations of Russian-owned Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA). The 'No To Plunder' campaign, which has played a key role in the protests, is dissatisfied with the concession. The numbers of protestors have fallen sharply in recent days, but the government is becoming increasingly unpopular. Impacts Higher electricity costs will lead to a rise in inflationary pressures for a wide range of goods and services. This will depress domestic demand as businesses and households are already struggling with the dram's sharp depreciation against the dollar. The slowdown in economic growth this year is likely to see public support for the authorities fall further.


Significance Tomas Drucker resigned as interior minister on April 16, under pressure to dismiss a police chief targeted by protesters dissatisfied with the investigation into the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his girlfriend in February. Sakova’s appointment is unlikely to demands for a fresh start at the ministry, where she has served for ten years. Impacts With an expected rise in auto capacity and consistently strong domestic demand, growth is forecast to average around 4% in 2018-19. Slovakia’s economy will thus become more balanced, between domestic demand and exports, but FDI inflows have yet to recover. The government will face pressure domestically and from the EU over the introduction of new anti-corruption and public-procurement measures.


Significance The government will probably create an off-budget 'special purpose vehicle' to manage the lending from the Export-Import Bank of China. Using this mechanism rather than including the project in the 2017 budget released in October demonstrates the fiscal and political constraints facing Malaysia's government in attempting to stimulate domestic demand in the face of weak revenues. Impacts Cuts of 12% to defence spending could affect Malaysian naval operations in the South China and Sulu Seas. Malaysia's budget challenges may provide an opening for China to invest more in Malaysian infrastructure. Off-budget borrowing, if not controlled, could threaten Malaysia's credit ratings and stifle accountable public spending.


Significance Despite its status as a major oil producer, Kazakhstan has struggled to meet domestic demand for refined products since the 1990s. Unprecedented fuel shortages in October and November forced the authorities to import large amounts of petrol and diesel from Russia. Impacts The loans that paid for refinery modernisation will be have to be repaid from retail fuel prices. The absence of a common energy market in the Eurasian Economic Union will complicate price harmonisation. The government believes it can square expanding production with its commitments to the Russian-OPEC output cap.


Subject Paraguay’s China-Taiwan relations. Significance The Paraguayan Association of Meat Producers and Exporters (APPEC) has called on the government of President Mario Abdo Benitez to find a way to enable them to export to China, raising the prospect of switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. This has provoked a hostile response from the local organisation United for Taiwan, which accused China of blackmail and said that existing ties of friendship with Taiwan should supersede purely commercial considerations. Impacts Business and political interests will come into increasing conflict over Taiwan relations. Chinese companies will continue to expand in the Paraguayan market. Exporters will find other ways of re-routing goods to China, but at a cost to profit margins.


Significance The rebound related to higher world prices, growing global and domestic demand, more efficient operations at the Vaca Muerta shale oil field and new natural gas subsidies. These industries still have considerable development potential, which the government hopes to foster given their role as a source of regional employment and export dollars. Impacts High global prices and post-pandemic rebound will boost production and exports, notably of lithium, copper and unconventional hydrocarbons. Natural resources will attract new green energy projects, especially in connection with photovoltaic and wind energy. Environmental protests over extractive projects will persist.


Significance The pandemic appears to have further increased the size of Peru’s large informal sector, in which productivity and remuneration are both low. Earlier economic growth did not feed through into a fall in informality. Impacts The measures announced will put further pressure on the government to raise revenue. Increased taxation is likely to fall on the business sector, including the mining industry. Growth will be generated more by increased external than domestic demand. Vaccination rates are set to speed up.


Significance In response to the new macroeconomic realities, the government put on hold the fiscal consolidation plans it announced earlier and allocated 4.4 trillion tenge (10.1 billion dollars) to fight the spread of COVID-19 and its economic fallout. Impacts The COVID-19 crisis is a test for the new president; he has previously been somewhat overshadowed by his predecessor Nursultan Nazarbayev. The deteriorating credit quality of corporate and individual borrowers will raise levels of non-performing loans in the banks. A weak tenge will improve exporters' profit margins but could deter future foreign investment.


2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanghack Lee ◽  
Jungran Cho

Purpose Many governments around the world have strategically privatized their ports. The privatized ports try to maximize profits by setting higher charges for port services and attracting transship cargos. This paper shows that such privatization of ports can be complemented by adjusting the number of ports. Specifically, the purpose of this paper is to derive the optimal number of ports in cases in which ports serve transship and domestic cargos. Design/methodology/approach This paper constructs a theoretical model in which ports compete with each other for transship and domestic cargos. In the first stage, the government determines the number of ports. In the second stage, the ports compete with each other in quantity to maximize profits. The authors have derived the optimal number of ports that maximizes national welfare. Findings The optimal number of ports is expressed as a function of the slope of the demand curve, the slope of the supply curve, and the share of domestic demand relative to total demand for port services. It is shown that the optimal number of ports tends to increase as the share of domestic cargo increases. The optimal number of ports, n*, is given as n*=1/(1−θ), where θ denotes the share of domestic demand in total demand for port services, when the unit cost of port services is constant. Research limitations/implications The analysis in the present paper is confined to the case of unilateral intervention by the government of the domestic country. Analyzing interaction among governments via competition policy would offer valuable policy implications. Practical implications The results of the current research offer important implications for Korean port policy in the context of maritime industrial changes, in particular, China’s New Silk Road initiative. In particular, the findings of this study suggest that Korea’s investment in ports should be concentrated on ports with competitive advantages. Originality/value Relatively scant attention has been paid to the possibility, or need, of strategic privatization being complemented by governmental competition policy. Filling this knowledge gap, the authors have shown that the government can mitigate the negative effects of privatization on domestic consumer surplus by introducing competition in the supply of port services.


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