Argentine government pins hopes on mining and energy

Significance The rebound related to higher world prices, growing global and domestic demand, more efficient operations at the Vaca Muerta shale oil field and new natural gas subsidies. These industries still have considerable development potential, which the government hopes to foster given their role as a source of regional employment and export dollars. Impacts High global prices and post-pandemic rebound will boost production and exports, notably of lithium, copper and unconventional hydrocarbons. Natural resources will attract new green energy projects, especially in connection with photovoltaic and wind energy. Environmental protests over extractive projects will persist.

Subject Outlook for Angola's relations with its creditors. Significance On July 31 the government entered into an agreement with Japan involving a 200-million-dollar concessional loan to support energy projects. It is the latest in a series of 'lifeline' deals concluded with donors and creditors in an attempt to cushion the economic reverberations of the oil price shock, particularly its implications for meeting debt repayments and development goals. Impacts The agreement signed with Congo-Brazzaville on July 31 to jointly exploit the Lianzi oil field could reduce border tensions. If protests increase, the government may escalate its civil society clampdown, eg through peremptory arrests of activists. New diamond projects will boost production, though recent 'blood diamond' allegations will raise reputation risks for investors. Increased diamond sales (up 35% in the first quarter year-on-year) will augment state revenues, but be insufficient to absorb the oil shock.


Significance At its first meeting of 2017, on January 10-11, the COPOM reduced the benchmark Selic interest rate to 13%. The 75-basis-point (bp) rate cut decision, the largest in nearly five years, accelerated the monetary easing cycle that started in October 2016. Economic recession has been relieving inflationary pressures and opening room for more intense cuts in interest rates. Impacts Further reductions of interest rates may contribute to controlling government debt. Private debt renegotiations at lower interest rates may facilitate a recovery in domestic demand and output. Any positive effects of monetary policy on activity may help contain popular dissatisfaction with the government.


Significance The modest GDP increase is attributed to government support for the economy as well as steadier oil prices and the launch of production at the Kashagan oil field. Low debt levels and substantial reserves give the government scope to invest in non-oil sectors. Impacts The large state role in the economy magnifies the risks of policy mismanagement. Continued investment in infrastructure will help position the country as a bridge between east and west. The Nurly Zhol programme will improve access to affordable houses but could have a distorting effect on the construction industry.


Significance In a bid to quell the protests, President Serzh Sargsyan has announced that the government will subsidise the increase until the completion of an independent audit into the operations of Russian-owned Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA). The 'No To Plunder' campaign, which has played a key role in the protests, is dissatisfied with the concession. The numbers of protestors have fallen sharply in recent days, but the government is becoming increasingly unpopular. Impacts Higher electricity costs will lead to a rise in inflationary pressures for a wide range of goods and services. This will depress domestic demand as businesses and households are already struggling with the dram's sharp depreciation against the dollar. The slowdown in economic growth this year is likely to see public support for the authorities fall further.


Subject Tanzanian constitutional reform Significance Political, religious and civil society leaders are calling for constitutional reform before the 2020 elections. These demands are underpinned by rising fears for the future of Tanzania’s multi-party democracy, which add to existing concerns over the concentration of power in the executive branch. Impacts A new constitution will be an opportunity to enshrine popular resource-nationalist principles behind recent natural resources legislation. The issue of Zanzibar's place in the union will come to the fore, creating an unstable environment for the 2020 elections there. The government will likely ease repression of dissenting voices in order to give a review process credibility.


Significance Tomas Drucker resigned as interior minister on April 16, under pressure to dismiss a police chief targeted by protesters dissatisfied with the investigation into the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his girlfriend in February. Sakova’s appointment is unlikely to demands for a fresh start at the ministry, where she has served for ten years. Impacts With an expected rise in auto capacity and consistently strong domestic demand, growth is forecast to average around 4% in 2018-19. Slovakia’s economy will thus become more balanced, between domestic demand and exports, but FDI inflows have yet to recover. The government will face pressure domestically and from the EU over the introduction of new anti-corruption and public-procurement measures.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Tetteh Asare ◽  
Bruce Burton ◽  
Theresa Dunne

Purpose This study aims to explore individual perceptions about how the government, as the main architect of policies and regulations, discharges strategic accountability in Ghana’s oil and gas sector and, in so doing, promotes resource sustainability. Design/methodology/approach The study reports on a series of interviews with key actors using institutional theory as a lens for discussion and interpretation of results. This approach forms the basis for a number of specific contributions to knowledge regarding strategic accountability around natural resource discoveries. Findings Whilst many deeply-set problems appear to persist, the paper reports some favourable movement in public perceptions regarding institutional accountability that has not been identified previously. The empirical findings demonstrate how the three elements of institutional theory work together in an emerging country’s natural resource industry to drive a potentially holistic strategic institutional legitimacy, contrary to the existing pervasive picture of detrimental regulative, normative and cognitive institutionalism found within the region. Practical implications The findings suggest that, contrary to existing regional evidence regarding institutional financial accountability practices around natural resources, Ghana has made favourable strides in terms of strategic accountability discharge. This discovery implies that with persistence and commitment, a meaningful degree of intelligent strategic accountability can be achieved and, with appropriate empirical methodology, identified and rationalised. Social implications The persistent coercive pressure from the Ghanaian society that caused the government to listen to overtime and take positive steps in the institutionalisation of their strategic accountability process which translated into a holistic institutional legitimacy that has eluded the sub-region for decades, is a glimmer of hope for other societies within the sub-Saharan region that all is not lost. Originality/value The paper suggests an empirically driven approach to understanding the institutionalisation of strategic accountability practices and their impact on sustainability around natural resources in sub-Saharan Africa. The focus on the strategic aspect of accountability – rather than the financial as in most prior work – and the consideration of opinions at more than a single point in time permits the identification of novel evidence regarding accountability in emerging economies.


Significance The government will probably create an off-budget 'special purpose vehicle' to manage the lending from the Export-Import Bank of China. Using this mechanism rather than including the project in the 2017 budget released in October demonstrates the fiscal and political constraints facing Malaysia's government in attempting to stimulate domestic demand in the face of weak revenues. Impacts Cuts of 12% to defence spending could affect Malaysian naval operations in the South China and Sulu Seas. Malaysia's budget challenges may provide an opening for China to invest more in Malaysian infrastructure. Off-budget borrowing, if not controlled, could threaten Malaysia's credit ratings and stifle accountable public spending.


Significance Despite its status as a major oil producer, Kazakhstan has struggled to meet domestic demand for refined products since the 1990s. Unprecedented fuel shortages in October and November forced the authorities to import large amounts of petrol and diesel from Russia. Impacts The loans that paid for refinery modernisation will be have to be repaid from retail fuel prices. The absence of a common energy market in the Eurasian Economic Union will complicate price harmonisation. The government believes it can square expanding production with its commitments to the Russian-OPEC output cap.


Significance During the coming winter months October-March, rising electricity and heating prices will reduce household disposable income, dampening domestic demand. The low profitability of Greek corporates makes them particularly vulnerable to an additional squeeze on profit margins due to rising energy costs. Impacts The European energy crisis could dampen popular support for greater use of renewable energy sources. Privatisation of DEPA Commercial might be put on hold to offer the government more control over price setting. New investments in gas storage facilities could hedge against future supply shocks. The rising prices of fertilisers will push up costs in agriculture and could undermine future output if less fertiliser is used.


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