Sudan stand-off will persist beyond Hamdok’s exit

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limited Impact ◽  
International Sanctions ◽  
The Military

Significance His departure is ostensibly a blow for Sudan’s military leaders and a symbolic victory for Sudanese calling for the military to leave power. However, the stand-off between the two groups remains fundamentally unchanged. Impacts If leaders cannot find enough civilians to form a cabinet, they may offer some posts to serving or retired military. Protests and possible strike action will continue but may have only limited impact, unless rising casualties trigger a new flashpoint. Significant new international sanctions are unlikely to materialise.

Effects of emerging leadership styles on engagement – a mediation analysis in a military context

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonia Ruiz Moreno ◽  
María Isabel Roldán Bravo ◽  
Carlos García-Guiu ◽  
Luis M. Lozano ◽  
Natalio Extremera Pacheco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Servant Leadership ◽  
Leadership Styles ◽  
Employee Engagement ◽  
Leadership Style ◽  
Authentic Leadership ◽  
Proactive Personality ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis paper aims to report the findings of a study examining the relationship between different leadership styles and engagement through the mediating role of proactive personality.Design/methodology/approachServant leadership, paradoxical leadership, authentic leadership, employee engagement and proactive personality were assessed in an empirical study based on a sample of 348 military personnel in Spain. The questionnaire data were analyzed through SEM using EQS and bootstrapping analysis using the PROCESS macro for SPSS.FindingsThe results reveal that servant leadership style in officers partially impacts their cadets' engagement through proactive personality but that authentic and paradoxical leadership styles do not mediate the relationship. The authors also verify a direct relationship between proactive personality and engagement.Practical implicationsThe study implications advance the literature on leadership in emphasizing new leadership styles to increase proactive personality and engagement in the military context. This study verifies the importance of military leaders fostering servant leadership as an antecedent of proactive personality. Finally, the authors show that servant leadership partially impacts engagement through proactive personality.Originality/valueThis study explores the relationship among servant, paradoxical and authentic leadership styles, proactive personality, and engagement – relationships that have not been explored theoretically and tested empirically in the military context.

Jerusalem deal will have limited impact on violence

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limited Impact ◽  
Jewish Holidays ◽  
The Military ◽  
Temple Mount ◽  
The Temple

Significance His comments come as Israel and Jordan (which is the custodian of the site) move forward with plans to reduce tension at the site, which has been a flashpoint of conflict for decades, most recently last September, when Muslim and Jewish holidays overlapped. The area, known to Muslims as al-Haram al Sharif (Noble Sanctuary) and Jews as the Temple Mount, is one of the most contentious issues dividing Israelis and Palestinians. Impacts Tensions in late April around the Passover holiday (April 22-30) could escalate as nationalist Jews attempt to pray on the Temple Mount. The agreement strengthens Jordan's claim to custodianship of Jerusalem's holy sites while undermining Palestinian claims to Jerusalem. Jordanian-Israeli trust and cooperation will expand, especially in the military and security realms. A violation of the agreement or provocative visits by Israeli MPs could trigger clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces. Renewed violence could undermine Israeli-Jordanian diplomatic and military cooperation, and the tentative Israeli-Turkish detente.

Deadly Thai insurgency shows no signs of ending

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The South ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limited Impact ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the southern insurgency. Significance Thai security forces went on alert in early March ahead of the 55th anniversary of the founding of the National Revolutionary Front (BRN), one of the primary militias in southern Thailand's insurgency. During the week of the anniversary, there were four shootings and a bombing. These attacks followed the junta's claim that overall violence has declined in the region. The military has raised the prospect of a new peace process, although progress in organising the next round has been slow. Impacts The insurgency will have a limited impact on the economy; its impact will largely be confined to some SEZ plans. Improvements in Thailand's ties with Malaysia will be key to beginning a meaningful peace process. Violence in the south is unlikely to impede the drafting of a new constitution and the conduct of fresh parliamentary polls.

Myanmar government-military ties could be at risk

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Minority Groups ◽  
Ethnic Minority Groups ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Civilian Leaders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Military Relations ◽  
The Military

Significance The response underlines the military's continued internal security role but, given that the restive areas are home to large Rohingya populations, also highlights residual political sensitivity about the military's position and the importance of effective government-military relations. Impacts An immediate trigger for civil-military frictions could be a breakdown in peace negotiations with ethnic minority groups. The government will struggle to convince military leaders that wide concessions to armed ethnic groups are needed. Centralisation of power within the NLD will hamper junior civilian leaders gaining experience of working with the military. In time, the military's economic influence will be politically problematic for the NLD.

Yingluck impeachment raises Thai political stakes

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Criminal Charges ◽  
International Sanctions ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Significance Her impeachment is part of the junta's broader effort permanently to prevent the Shinawatra family from regaining power. The second step, Yingluck's arraignment before the Supreme Court on criminal charges also related to the rice scheme, will take place in February. In addition, the Election Commission has announced that it, too, may bring charges against Yingluck in coming weeks, allegedly for using government funds for her election campaign last February. Impacts The military can prevent any violent uprising by Thaksin supporters -- for the time being. Should the junta overplay its hand, the risk of an uprising would rise, potentially jeopardising foreign investment. The risk of tighter international sanctions against Thailand is minimal.

Many candidates but few real choices in Ukraine vote

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limited Impact ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Military

Significance The two obvious candidates, incumbent Petro Poroshenko, and his main challenger Yulia Tymoshenko, have been joined by television comic Volodymyr Zelensky, a disruptor candidate who has pulled ahead in polling. The pro-European, pro-reform agenda is not strongly represented, nor are Russian-backed candidates, while the much-reported-on far right stands even less chance. Impacts The military stand-off has stabilised after the Kerch Straits clash, but remains fragile. The absence of voters from Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk may skew preferences but will not invalidate the polls' legitimacy. Moscow will inevitably ramp up rhetoric about 'fascism' and 'illegitimate government', with limited impact on Ukrainian voters.

Sudan’s revolution may pay wider peace dividend

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Power Sharing ◽  
African Union ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Reforms ◽  
Enabling Environment ◽  
Peace Dividend ◽  
A Priority ◽  
The Military

Significance The Constitutional Declaration -- a power-sharing agreement between the military leaders who ousted former President Omar al-Bashir and the protest leaders who led the popular revolution -- makes a peace agreement with Sudan’s various armed factions a priority for the first six months of the transition. Impacts For now, de facto ceasefires should mostly hold, though sporadic skirmishes, including among non-formal armed actors, may continue. Progress in peace talks would enhance wider prospects for stability, creating an enabling environment for economic and political reforms. Progress could also accelerate plans for the withdrawal of the joint UN-African Union peacekeeping mission in Darfur.

Myanmar speech will not mollify Suu Kyi's critics

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
International Community ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Funding ◽  
International Sanctions ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance This follows intense criticism from the international community, which argues that she has done little to address the crisis or alleged abuses by Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, against the Rohingya. Impacts The military will not be offended by yesterday’s speech. Fresh international sanctions on Myanmar are unlikely, but the government will face more criticism in global fora. The government will seek international funding aid to develop Rakhine infrastructure and social services. Islamic State could use the Rohingya situation to increase recruitment and terrorist activities in Myanmar.

Chad's new military leaders are gathering support

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Military Transition ◽  
The Imf ◽  
At Home

Significance The Military Transition Council (CMT), which took power after the death of President Idriss Deby on April 20, is gaining greater tacit support from African and other international leaders as it faces significant but not overwhelming opposition at home. Impacts Deby's son Mahamat will aim to keep most regional troop deployments in place to maintain goodwill with neighbours and international backers. If the transitional authorities avoid sanctions, they could draw on a four-year USD560mn loan agreed with the IMF in January. Rumours that eastern Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar was involved in the rebellion may keep ties with Libya tense.

Cienfuegos affair threatens Mexico-US security ties

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
The Political ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance The situation has highlighted several issues of concern around the influence of the Mexican military, the government’s reliance on it and the challenges Mexico and its security agencies face in trying to meet US demands while addressing domestic threats. Impacts Mexican militarisation was facilitated by Trump administration apathy on human rights; this will change under President Joe Biden. Increased US-bound migration, encouraged by Biden’s more humane rhetoric, will heighten the need for bilateral security cooperation. Future Mexican administrations will struggle to reverse the political influence the military has obtained.

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