UK local election results will ease pressure on May

Headline UNITED KINGDOM: Local elections ease pressure on May

Significance Military and security personnel voted early on April 29, with a turnout of 12%. There are concerns that widespread apathy, coupled with a desire among the Tunisian electorate with the opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with the unity government’s performance, will dampen turnout and undermine the municipal councils from the outset. Impacts The local election results could cause parties to reassess campaign strategies for the 2019 general elections. Local governance will be effective only if adequate mechanisms are in place to transfer financial resources. The municipal elections present an opportunity for women and younger candidates.


Significance Low turnouts in elections in mid-November and ruling party setbacks suggest popular frustration. A quarter-century after the war, Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) is marked by division and dysfunction. Unless a way is found locally or abroad to fix its problems -- and soon -- BiH will slide towards disintegration or even new conflict. Impacts Ruling Bosniak and Bosnian Serb party defeats in Sarajevo and Banja Luka could indicate a shift ahead of 2022 general elections. Change in the White House is expected to bring stronger US involvement in BiH, providing either opportunity or risk. Close EU-US cooperation in the Balkans is a key condition but no guarantee for stabilising BiH and the whole region.


Subject Local and municipal election results. Significance The largely united opposition made a major breakthrough in local elections on October 13, taking Budapest and other cities and towns and eroding Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party’s predominant position since 2006. A sex scandal plus changes within the opposition have apparently lost Fidesz the middle class, further emphasising the already stark divide between cities and the countryside. Impacts Orban’s weaker position will dent the confidence of the global right-wing populist movement, of which he is a figurehead. Domestic capital associated with the Orban government is at risk as investors price in a potential loss of government support. The decline in political stability may at least momentarily moderate investor confidence in Hungary.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 205630512092477
Author(s):  
Caleb T. Carr

Local elections are no longer just influenced by, marketed toward, or relevant to only a small, geographically constrained electorate. Social media increasingly connect politics to publics that may extend beyond politicians’ or issues’ local constituencies. Every election—from Senator to alderperson—has been rendered accessible and relevant to broad individuals, organizations, and interests. Now, campaigns—particularly in close races or battleground areas—can canvas beyond the local level to seek donations, campaign volunteers, or to encourage local residents to vote. Social media have become venues to demonstrate a candidate’s likability with users, which are parlayed into local goodwill and electability. And foreign nationals and governments increasingly are using social media to spread disinformation or to otherwise sway local issues. Ultimately, what was once a city, county, state, provincial, or national election can now play out on a global stage through social media, with all of the subsequent influence and impacts. This article uses several geographically dispersed and representative examples to exemplify the delocalization of the local election, including Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate Campaign (the US), the effect of nationwide social media popularity and interactivity on local election results (Taiwan and The Netherlands), and Russian influence in the 2016 Brexit Referendum (the UK). It concludes by calling for new understanding of what political involvement and political action may mean in a socially mediated society.


10.1068/c0228 ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 853-869 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annie Gaardsted Frandsen

This paper reviews local election turnout for the period since the 1970s in five European countries: Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. It explores especially the relationship between size of municipality and turnout in local elections. The author seeks to explore this issue in the light of Dahl and Tufte's 1973 classic study Size and Democracy (Stanford University Press) which claimed that citizens' motivation to participate is greater in small governmental units than in large ones. This study confirms the Dahl and Tufte hypothesis, in that turnout is consistently higher over time in small municipalities in all the countries reviewed, although the strength of the relationship varies between the different countries. The paper also shows that other factors, such as the type of electoral system used or whether voting is compulsory or not, also have an effect on turnout.


Significance There is international precedent for this, after the United Kingdom postponed its local elections. However, although Chad and Ethiopia have delayed their polls, no other government has yet done so, raising fears that some elections could drive a spike in transmissions. Impacts Where elections do go ahead, minimising the risk of COVID-19 transmission will be extremely challenging and often infeasible. The absence of international observers will undermine the international community's ability to intervene in flawed elections. Expensive elections, and overspending by ruling parties to court voters, will likely result in worsening deficits and rising debt burdens.


Headline UNITED KINGDOM: Local elections boost Conservatives


Subject Shifting voting patterns in Lebanon. Significance Former Internal Security Chief Ashraf Rifi won a landslide victory in Tripoli on May 29, in the final round of Lebanon's local elections. His list, 'Tripoli Decision', took 18 out of 24 seats, and defeated established political leaders. His win followed surprise gains by new political forces in the Beirut local elections on May 8. The polls were Lebanon's first vote of any kind since 2010. Impacts The local election results could pave the way to great political changes in the 2017 parliamentary elections. If Beirut Medinati becomes a formal political party it could pose a challenge to sectarian politics. Regime victory in Syria would increase Hezbollah's willingness to make compromises over the presidency and the electoral law. If elections are delayed beyond 2017, the political status quo is likely to hold, but the risk of protests will rise.


Subject Local election upset. Significance Local elections have dented President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s hold on power. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) appears to have lost both Ankara and Istanbul, which it has held since 1994, and other large cities. The AKP faces a difficult choice between cracking down on its rivals and seeking coexistence with them -- something Erdogan will be loath to do. Impacts Tough controls on social media and freedom of expression are likely. There will be some increase in anti-government activity. Some infrastructure projects in Istanbul and Ankara may halt. Increased political tension will deter investors. Turkey will distance itself further from the West.


Headline ECUADOR: Local elections may spell end of Alianza Pais


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