Weather, investor psychology and stock returns: evidence from Fiji's stock market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Janesh Sami
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asset Pricing Models ◽  
Weather Changes ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThis paper investigates whether weather affects stock market returns in Fiji's stock market.Design/methodology/approachThe author employed an exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) modeling framework to examine the effect of weather changes on stock market returns over the sample period 9/02/2000–31/12/2020.FindingsThe results show that weather (temperature, rain, humidity and sunshine duration) have robust but heterogenous effects on stock market returns in Fiji.Research limitations/implicationsIt is useful for scholars to modify asset pricing models to include weather-related variables (temperature, rain, humidity and sunshine duration) to better understand Fiji's stock market dynamics (even though they are often viewed as economically neutral variables).Practical implicationsInvestors and traders should consider their mood while making stock market decisions to lessen mood-induced errors.Originality/valueThis is the first attempt to examine the effect of weather (temperature, rain, humidity and sunshine duration) on stock market returns in Fiji's stock market.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

scholarly journals Stock Returns and The Weather Effect: the Case of Ghana

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sampson Atuahene ◽  
Kong Yusheng ◽  
Geoffrey Bentum-Micah
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Economic Significance ◽  
Weather Changes ◽  
Brokerage Firms

In every economy, Stock markets are part of the key elements the build it up. A few decades ago, there has been a significant change in Ghana stock market returns (GSE). Our study examines the statistical and economic significance of investor sentiment, based on weather conditions/changes, on stock market returns. OLS models, assisted by unit root tests were employed in analyzing the data obtained from the Ghana stock exchange platform from 2000 to 2017. From our literature review, we discovered that investors’ perceptions play a central role in finalizing the direction of stock market returns. Regarding our empirical results, we tested whether weather variations influence the investment decisions of investors; we discovered that temperature and cloud cover significantly influences stock market returns. This is because of mood changes is associated with weather conditions variations. However, sunshine per our regression coefficient shows a statistically insignificant impact on investors’ investment choices. Precipitation to a large extend influence stock market activities further affecting its results negatively as our regression results depicted. We concluded stock brokerage firms, companies, and investors (foreign/local) must incorporate weather changes/effects when strategizing about their investment outcomes.

scholarly journals Stock market returns and liquidity during the COVID-19 outbreak: evidence from the financial services sector in Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cuong Thanh Nguyen ◽  
Phan Thanh Hai ◽  
Huyen Khanh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Financial Services Sector

PurposeThis paper aims to explore the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak and the Government's disease control measures on the stock returns and liquidity of Vietnam-listed companies in the financial services sector.Design/methodology/approachThe authors have conducted a panel data regression analysis using data from 50 banking, insurance and finance companies listed in Vietnam's two biggest stock exchanges (HNX and HOSE) within the period from January 30th, 2020 to May 15th, 2021.FindingsThe regression results indicate that the daily growth in the total number of confirmed cases caused by COVID-19 has significant negative effects on the stock market returns and liquidity. Nevertheless, the Government's imposition of lockdown yields significant and positive outcomes on stock performance. In addition, the study reveals remarkable differences in returns of large-cap and small-cap stocks under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.Research limitations/implicationsThe study indicates government and regulators should act more actively to limit the outbreak of the virus, improve investor confidence as well to support the financial services industry and deal with the outbreak of the pandemic later.Originality/valueThis is the first study to explore the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak and the Government's disease control measures on the stock returns and liquidity of Vietnam-listed companies in the financial services industry.

What do foreign flows tell us about stock market movements in the presence of permanent and transitory shocks?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hardik Marfatia
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transitory Shocks ◽  
The Common ◽  
Foreign Institutional Investors

Purpose There is no research on understanding the difference in the nature of volatility and what it entails for the underlying relationship between foreign institutional investors (FII) flows and stock market movements. The purpose of this paper is to explore how permanent and transitory shocks dominate the common movement between FII flows and the stock market returns. As emerging markets are a major destination of international portfolio investments, the author uses India as a perfect case study to this end. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses the permanent-transitory as well as a trend-cycle decomposition approach to gain further insights into the common movement between foreign institutional investors (FII) flows and the stock market. Findings When the author identifies innovations based on their degree of persistence, transitory shocks dominate stock returns, whereas permanent shocks explain movements in foreign institutional investors (FII) flows. Also, stock returns have a larger cyclical component compared to cycles in foreign flows. The authors find the sharp downward (upward) movement in the stock market (FII flows) cycle in the initial period of the COIVD-19 pandemic was quickly reversed and currently, the stock market (FII flows) is historically above (below) the long-term trend, hinting at a correction in months ahead. The authors find strikingly similar stock market cycles during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 period. Research limitations/implications Evidence suggests the presence of long stock market cycles – substantial and persistent deviations of actual price from its fundamental (trend) value determined by the shared relationship with foreign flows. This refutes the efficient market hypothesis and makes a case favoring diversification gains from investing in India. Further, transitory shocks dominate the forecast error of stock market movements. Thus, the Indian market provides profit opportunities to foreign investors who use a momentum-based strategy. The author also finds support for the positive feedback trading strategy used by foreign investors. Practical implications There is a need for policymakers to account for the foreign undercurrents while formulating economic policies, given the findings that it is the permanent shocks that mostly explain movements in foreign institutional flows. Further, the author finds only stock markets error-correct in response to any short-term shocks to the shared long-term relationship, highlighting the disruptive (though transitory) role of FII flows. Originality/value Unlike existing studies, the author models the relationship between stock market returns and foreign institutional investors (FII) flows by distinguishing between the permanent and transitory movements in these two variables. Ignoring this distinction, as done in existing literature, can affect the soundness of the estimated parameter that captures the nexus between these two variables. In addition, while it may be common to find that stock market returns and FII flows move together, the paper further contributes by decomposing each variable into a trend and a cycle using this shared relationship. The paper also contributes to understanding the impact of COVID-19 on this relationship.

Volatility and cross correlations of stock markets in SAARC nations

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Singhania ◽  
Shachi Prakash
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Indices

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine cross-correlation in stock returns of SAARC countries, conditional and unconditional volatility of stock markets and to test efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Design/methodology/approach – Stock indices of India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are considered to serve as proxy for stock markets in SAARC countries. Data consist of daily closing price of stock indices from 2000 to 2011. Since preliminary testing indicated presence of serial autocorrelation and volatility clustering, family of GARCH models is selected. Findings – Results indicate presence of serial autocorrelation in stock market returns, implying dependence of current stock prices on stock prices of previous times and leads to rejection of EMH. Significant relationship between stock market returns and unconditional volatility indicates investors’ expectation of extra risk premium for exposing their portfolios to unexpected variations in stock markets. Cross-correlation revealed level of integration of South Asian economies with global market to be high. Research limitations/implications – Business cycles and other macroeconomic developments affect most companies and lead to unexplained relationships. The paper finds stock markets to exist at different levels of development as economic liberalization started at different points of time in SAARC countries. Practical implications – Correlation between stock indices of SAARC economies are found to be low which is in line with intra-regional trade being one of lowest as compared to other regional groups. Results point towards greater need for economic cooperation and integration between SAARC countries. Greater financial integration leads to development of markets and institutions, effective price discovery, higher savings and greater economic progress. Originality/value – The paper focuses on EMH and risk return relation for SAARC nations.

scholarly journals Will stock rise on Valentine’s Day?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Terence Tai-Leung Chong ◽  
Siqi Hou
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Valentine's Day ◽  
Holiday Effects ◽  
Tax Loss ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Specific Control

PurposeThis study is a pioneer in the academic literature to investigate the relationship between Valentine’s Day and stock market returns of major economies around the world.Design/methodology/approachSpecific control variables for Valentine's Day are introduced to eliminate the potential influence of other effects.FindingsThe findings indicate that stock returns are higher on the days when Valentine's Day is approaching than on other days for most cases, showing “the Valentine Effect” in the stock market.Originality/valueUnlike other holiday effects in the previous literature, the Valentine's Day effect cannot be explained by many conventional theories, such as tax-loss selling and the inventory adjustment hypothesis.

Monetary policy uncertainty and stock market returns: influence of limits to arbitrage and the economic cycle

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 777-798
Author(s):  
Jessica Paule-Vianez ◽  
Camilo Prado-Román ◽  
Raúl Gómez-Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact that monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) has on stock market returns by taking into account limits to arbitrage and the economic cycle. Design/methodology/approach Using four news-based MPU measures, regression models have been applied in this study over a sample period from January 1985 to March 2020. The limits to arbitrage have been considered by taking Russell 1000 Value, Russell 1000 Growth, Russell 2000 Value and Russell 2000 Growth indices, and business cycles were established following the National Bureau of Economic Research. Findings A negative MPU impact on stock returns has been found. In particular, the most subjective and difficult to arbitrate stocks have been more sensitive to MPU. However, it could not be concluded that MPU has a greater or lesser impact on stock returns depending on the economic cycle. Practical implications The findings obtained are particularly useful for monetary policymakers showing the importance and need for greater control over the transparency of their decisions to maintain the stability of financial markets. The findings obtained are also useful for investors when selecting their investment assets at times of the highest MPU. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the few studies investigating the effect of MPU on stock market returns, and the first to analyse this relationship taking into account the economic cycle and limits to arbitrage.

Commitment to marketing spending through recessions

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (12) ◽  
pp. 2134-2161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imran S. Currim ◽  
Jooseop Lim ◽  
Yu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Top Executives ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Marketing Spending

Purpose This paper aims to address two unique and important questions. First, how do recessions directly affect firms’ marketing spending decisions? Second, and more importantly, do firms which are more committed to marketing spending through past recessions achieve better stock market returns? Design/methodology/approach This study is based on a combination of National Bureau of Economic Research, COMPUSTAT and Center for Research in Security Prices data on 6,000 firms between 1982 and 2009 which are analyzed using panel data-based regression models. Findings The authors find that firms cut marketing spending during recessions. However, firms committed to marketing spending during past recessions achieve better stock market returns. The findings are found to be robust across B2B and B2C industries, different periods and US firms which vary on the proportion of their global revenue from non-US sales. Research limitations/implications Top executives cut marketing budgets during recessions; however, if they can resist the pressures, and strategically continue to make marketing investments during recessions, they will achieve higher stock market returns. Originality/value This is the first paper to establish the longer-term (not short-term) positive stock market performance of continuous (not episodic) marketing spending through past recessions, i.e. the view that marketing spending is necessary (not discretionary) for stock returns.

The single and joint effects of financial intervention policies introduced by governments and power distance culture on returns of equity markets during the COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fouad Jamaani
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Power Distance ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Managers

PurposeThis paper uniquely aims to triangulate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, government financial intervention (GFI) policies and power distance (PD) culture on returns of equity indices during the COVID-19 epidemic in the world's equity markets.Design/methodology/approachThe research employs panel data regression analysis using 1,937 observations from 19 developed and 42 developing countries. The data employed contain daily registered COVID-19 cases, global equity market index prices, financial intervention policies introduced by governments and Hofstede's cultural dimension measure of PD.FindingsThe authors find that investors certainly react negatively to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported, that GFI policies indeed reinforce investors' expectations of policymakers' dedication to stabilize the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and that equity investors in high PD cultures overreact to GFI news, resulting in more positive stock returns. The authors discover a difference between developed and developing countries in terms of the effect of GFI policies and PD on equity returns.Research limitations/implicationsResults suggest that investors react negatively to the daily registered COVID-19 cases. The authors find that financial intervention policies introduced by governments reinforce investors' outlooks of policymakers' commitment to stabilize local stock markets during the coronavirus pandemic. The results confirm that equity market investors in PD cultures overreact to financial intervention news, thus resulting in more positive stock returns.Practical implicationsThe paper provides three original contributions. First, it helps us to understand the single effect of the COVID-19 and financial intervention policies introduced by governments on returns of the global equity market. Second, it examines the possibility of a two-way joint effect between the COVID-19 and financial intervention policies introduced by governments and the COVID-19 and differences in countries characterized by a PD culture concerning stock market returns. Third, it investigates the possibility of a three-way interaction effect between the COVID-19 contagion, financial intervention policies introduced by governments and culture on returns of equity markets.Originality/valueThe authors' findings are valuable to researchers, investors and policymakers. Culture and finance scholars can now observe the role of Brown et al.'s (1988) uncertain-information hypothesis with reference to the effect of the COVID-19 and financial interventions policies introduced by governments on returns of equity markets. This is because the authors' findings underline that since investors' uncertainty declines with daily registered numbers of COVID-19 cases, the introduction of GFI policies function as a neutralizing device to re-establish investors' expectations to equilibrium. Consequently, stock market returns follow a random walk that is free from the negative effect of the COVID-19. The authors' work is likely to advise equity investors and portfolio managers about the extent to which major exogenous economic events such the outbreak of global diseases, financial interventions policies introduced by governments and differences in countries' PD culture can individually and jointly influence the return of the world's equity markets. Investors and portfolio managers can employ the authors' results as a guideline to adjust their investment strategy based on their investment decision strategy during global pandemics. Policymakers aiming to introduce financial intervention policies to stabilize their stock market returns during global pandemics can benefit from our results. They can observe the full effect of such policies during the current COVID-19, and subsequently be better prepared to choose the most effective form of financial intervention policies when the next pandemic strikes, hopefully never.

scholarly journals Predicting stock market returns in the US: evidence from an average correlation approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 411-433
Author(s):  
Xiyang Li ◽  
Bin Li ◽  
Tarlok Singh ◽  
Kan Shi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Average Correlation ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
The Usa

Purpose This study aims to draw on a less explored predictor – the average correlation of pairwise returns on industry portfolios – to predict stock market returns (SMRs) in the USA. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the average correlation approach of Pollet and Wilson (2010) and predicts the SMRs in the USA. The model is estimated using monthly data for a long time horizon, from July 1963 to December 2018, for the portfolios comprising 48 Fama-French industries. The model is extended to examine the effects of a longer lag structure of one-month to four-month lags and to control for the effects of a number of variables – average variance (AV), cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE), term spread (TS), default spread (DS), risk-free rate returns (R_f) and lagged excess market returns (R_s). Findings The study finds that the two-month lagged average correlation of returns on individual industry portfolios, used individually and collectively with financial predictors and economic factors, predicts excess returns on the stock market in an effective manner. Research limitations/implications The methodology and results are of interest to academics as they could further explore the use of average correlation to improve the predictive powers of their models. Practical implications Market practitioners could include the average correlation in their asset pricing models to improve the predictions for the future trend in stock market returns. Investors could consider including average correlation in their forecasting models, along with the traditional financial ratios and economic indicators. They could adjust their expected returns to a lower level when the average correlation increases during a recession. Social implications The finding that recession periods have effects on the SMRs would be useful for the policymakers. The understanding of the co-movement of returns on industry portfolios during a recession would be useful for the formulation of policies aimed at ensuring the stability of the financial markets. Originality/value The study contributes to the literature on three counts. First, the study uses industry portfolio returns – as compared to individual stock returns used in Pollet and Wilson (2010) – in constructing average correlation. When stock market becomes more volatile on returns, the individual stocks are more diverse on their performance; the comovement between individual stock returns might be dominated by the idiosyncratic component, which may not have any implications for future SMRs. Using the industry portfolio returns can potentially reduce such an effect by a large extent, and thus, can provide more reliable estimates. Second, the effects of business cycles could be better identified in a long sample period and through several sub-sample tests. This study uses a data set, which spans the period from July 1963 to December 2018. This long sample period covers multiple phases of business cycles. The daily data are used to compute the monthly and equally-weighted average correlation of returns on 48 Fama-French industry portfolios. Third, previous studies have often ignored the use of investors’ sentiments in their prediction models, while investors’ irrational decisions could have an important impact on expected returns (Huang et al., 2015). This study extends the analysis and incorporates investors’ sentiments in the model.

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