What do foreign flows tell us about stock market movements in the presence of permanent and transitory shocks?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hardik Marfatia
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transitory Shocks ◽  
The Common ◽  
Foreign Institutional Investors

Purpose There is no research on understanding the difference in the nature of volatility and what it entails for the underlying relationship between foreign institutional investors (FII) flows and stock market movements. The purpose of this paper is to explore how permanent and transitory shocks dominate the common movement between FII flows and the stock market returns. As emerging markets are a major destination of international portfolio investments, the author uses India as a perfect case study to this end. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses the permanent-transitory as well as a trend-cycle decomposition approach to gain further insights into the common movement between foreign institutional investors (FII) flows and the stock market. Findings When the author identifies innovations based on their degree of persistence, transitory shocks dominate stock returns, whereas permanent shocks explain movements in foreign institutional investors (FII) flows. Also, stock returns have a larger cyclical component compared to cycles in foreign flows. The authors find the sharp downward (upward) movement in the stock market (FII flows) cycle in the initial period of the COIVD-19 pandemic was quickly reversed and currently, the stock market (FII flows) is historically above (below) the long-term trend, hinting at a correction in months ahead. The authors find strikingly similar stock market cycles during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 period. Research limitations/implications Evidence suggests the presence of long stock market cycles – substantial and persistent deviations of actual price from its fundamental (trend) value determined by the shared relationship with foreign flows. This refutes the efficient market hypothesis and makes a case favoring diversification gains from investing in India. Further, transitory shocks dominate the forecast error of stock market movements. Thus, the Indian market provides profit opportunities to foreign investors who use a momentum-based strategy. The author also finds support for the positive feedback trading strategy used by foreign investors. Practical implications There is a need for policymakers to account for the foreign undercurrents while formulating economic policies, given the findings that it is the permanent shocks that mostly explain movements in foreign institutional flows. Further, the author finds only stock markets error-correct in response to any short-term shocks to the shared long-term relationship, highlighting the disruptive (though transitory) role of FII flows. Originality/value Unlike existing studies, the author models the relationship between stock market returns and foreign institutional investors (FII) flows by distinguishing between the permanent and transitory movements in these two variables. Ignoring this distinction, as done in existing literature, can affect the soundness of the estimated parameter that captures the nexus between these two variables. In addition, while it may be common to find that stock market returns and FII flows move together, the paper further contributes by decomposing each variable into a trend and a cycle using this shared relationship. The paper also contributes to understanding the impact of COVID-19 on this relationship.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

Weather, investor psychology and stock returns: evidence from Fiji's stock market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Janesh Sami
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asset Pricing Models ◽  
Weather Changes ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThis paper investigates whether weather affects stock market returns in Fiji's stock market.Design/methodology/approachThe author employed an exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) modeling framework to examine the effect of weather changes on stock market returns over the sample period 9/02/2000–31/12/2020.FindingsThe results show that weather (temperature, rain, humidity and sunshine duration) have robust but heterogenous effects on stock market returns in Fiji.Research limitations/implicationsIt is useful for scholars to modify asset pricing models to include weather-related variables (temperature, rain, humidity and sunshine duration) to better understand Fiji's stock market dynamics (even though they are often viewed as economically neutral variables).Practical implicationsInvestors and traders should consider their mood while making stock market decisions to lessen mood-induced errors.Originality/valueThis is the first attempt to examine the effect of weather (temperature, rain, humidity and sunshine duration) on stock market returns in Fiji's stock market.

scholarly journals FIIs and Indian Stock Market: A Causality Investigation

2012 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 5-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minakshi Paliwal ◽  
S. D. Vashishtha
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Foreign Institutional Investors ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Indian Stock Market

While the volatility associated with portfolio capital flows is well known, there is also a concern that foreign institutional investors might introduce distortions in the host country markets due to the pressure on them to secure capital gains. In this context, present chapter attempts to find out the direction of causality between foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and performance of Indian stock market. To facilitate a better understanding of the causal linkage between FII flows and contemporaneous stock market returns (BSE National Index), a period of nineteen consecutive financial years ranging from January 1992 to December 2010 is selected. Granger Causality Test has been applied to test the direction of causality.

scholarly journals Stock market returns and liquidity during the COVID-19 outbreak: evidence from the financial services sector in Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cuong Thanh Nguyen ◽  
Phan Thanh Hai ◽  
Huyen Khanh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Financial Services Sector

PurposeThis paper aims to explore the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak and the Government's disease control measures on the stock returns and liquidity of Vietnam-listed companies in the financial services sector.Design/methodology/approachThe authors have conducted a panel data regression analysis using data from 50 banking, insurance and finance companies listed in Vietnam's two biggest stock exchanges (HNX and HOSE) within the period from January 30th, 2020 to May 15th, 2021.FindingsThe regression results indicate that the daily growth in the total number of confirmed cases caused by COVID-19 has significant negative effects on the stock market returns and liquidity. Nevertheless, the Government's imposition of lockdown yields significant and positive outcomes on stock performance. In addition, the study reveals remarkable differences in returns of large-cap and small-cap stocks under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.Research limitations/implicationsThe study indicates government and regulators should act more actively to limit the outbreak of the virus, improve investor confidence as well to support the financial services industry and deal with the outbreak of the pandemic later.Originality/valueThis is the first study to explore the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak and the Government's disease control measures on the stock returns and liquidity of Vietnam-listed companies in the financial services industry.

scholarly journals Do Overnight Returns Truly Measure Firm-Specific Investor Sentiment in the KOSPI Market?

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3718 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang Ik Seok ◽  
Hoon Cho ◽  
Chanhi Park ◽  
Doojin Ryu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Korean Stock Market ◽  
Korean Market

This study analyzes the effect of overnight returns on subsequent stock market returns and investigates whether they do capture investor sentiment in the Korean stock market. Recent study showed that overnight returns are similar to existing sentiment measures, and, thus, are suitable for measuring firm-specific investor sentiment in the U.S. market. Similarly, we found that, for firms in the Korean market, high overnight returns are followed by higher stock returns in the short term (i.e., two or three trading days) but lower stock returns in the long term. However, these effects do not differ for different types of firms (i.e., hard-to-value firms), whereas classical firm-specific sentiment indicators capture these differences. Overall, we found that overnight returns do not truly measure firm-specific investor sentiment in the Korean stock market even though they are partially related to investor sentiment.

Volatility and cross correlations of stock markets in SAARC nations

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Singhania ◽  
Shachi Prakash
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Indices

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine cross-correlation in stock returns of SAARC countries, conditional and unconditional volatility of stock markets and to test efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Design/methodology/approach – Stock indices of India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are considered to serve as proxy for stock markets in SAARC countries. Data consist of daily closing price of stock indices from 2000 to 2011. Since preliminary testing indicated presence of serial autocorrelation and volatility clustering, family of GARCH models is selected. Findings – Results indicate presence of serial autocorrelation in stock market returns, implying dependence of current stock prices on stock prices of previous times and leads to rejection of EMH. Significant relationship between stock market returns and unconditional volatility indicates investors’ expectation of extra risk premium for exposing their portfolios to unexpected variations in stock markets. Cross-correlation revealed level of integration of South Asian economies with global market to be high. Research limitations/implications – Business cycles and other macroeconomic developments affect most companies and lead to unexplained relationships. The paper finds stock markets to exist at different levels of development as economic liberalization started at different points of time in SAARC countries. Practical implications – Correlation between stock indices of SAARC economies are found to be low which is in line with intra-regional trade being one of lowest as compared to other regional groups. Results point towards greater need for economic cooperation and integration between SAARC countries. Greater financial integration leads to development of markets and institutions, effective price discovery, higher savings and greater economic progress. Originality/value – The paper focuses on EMH and risk return relation for SAARC nations.

scholarly journals DOES ELECTION IMPACT ON STOCK MARKET RETURNS IN BANGLADESH?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of parliamentary general election on the stock market returns by considering the previous fifteen days and the after fifteen days of each of six elections in Bangladesh held between 1991 and 2018. The study analyzed the election effect on stock returns through considering both abnormal returns by choosing 20 stocks as a proxy of portfolio motive of the investors and the broad index returns as a measurement of whole market scenario. The study employed descriptive statistics, t-tests, and F-tests to understand the impact of election by gauging the changes in return series. Descriptive statistics showed very high differences in means, standard deviations, and volatilities. Paired t-tests showed significant differences between the means and F-tests showed significant differences between the variances of the returns during before and after days of these elections. The results were the same for abnormal returns and broad index returns. The impacts of individual election on the returns were also found as the same in most cases. The study has found some very useful insights part of which can benefit the policymakers to reform the policies. The common investors and the financial market participants can also make better investment plan.

scholarly journals Will stock rise on Valentine’s Day?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Terence Tai-Leung Chong ◽  
Siqi Hou
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Valentine's Day ◽  
Holiday Effects ◽  
Tax Loss ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Specific Control

PurposeThis study is a pioneer in the academic literature to investigate the relationship between Valentine’s Day and stock market returns of major economies around the world.Design/methodology/approachSpecific control variables for Valentine's Day are introduced to eliminate the potential influence of other effects.FindingsThe findings indicate that stock returns are higher on the days when Valentine's Day is approaching than on other days for most cases, showing “the Valentine Effect” in the stock market.Originality/valueUnlike other holiday effects in the previous literature, the Valentine's Day effect cannot be explained by many conventional theories, such as tax-loss selling and the inventory adjustment hypothesis.

scholarly journals Causality and dynamic relationships between exchange rate and stock market indices in BRICS countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (50) ◽  
pp. 395-412
Author(s):  
Mourad Mroua ◽  
Lotfi Trabelsi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Short And Long Term

Purpose This paper aims to investigate simultaneously the causality and the dynamic links between exchange rates and stock market indices. It attempts to identify the short- and long-term effect of the US dollar on major stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South-Africa (BRICS) nations. Design/methodology/approach This paper applies a new methodology combining the panel generalized method of moments model and the panel auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to investigate the existence of a causal short-/long-run relationships and dynamic dependence among all stock market returns and exchanges rates changes of BRICS countries. Findings Results show that exchange rate changes have a significant effect on the past and the current volatility of the BRICS stock indices. Besides, ARDL estimations reveal that exchange rate movements have a significant effect on short- and long-term stocks market indices of all BRICS countries Originality/value The findings have implications for policymakers and market participants who try to manage the exchange rate will have a different dose of intervention if they know that the effects of currency depreciation are different than appreciation. These results have important implications that investors should take into account in frequency-varying exchange rates and stock returns and regulators should consider developing sound policy measures to prevent financial risk.

Monetary policy uncertainty and stock market returns: influence of limits to arbitrage and the economic cycle

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 777-798
Author(s):  
Jessica Paule-Vianez ◽  
Camilo Prado-Román ◽  
Raúl Gómez-Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact that monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) has on stock market returns by taking into account limits to arbitrage and the economic cycle. Design/methodology/approach Using four news-based MPU measures, regression models have been applied in this study over a sample period from January 1985 to March 2020. The limits to arbitrage have been considered by taking Russell 1000 Value, Russell 1000 Growth, Russell 2000 Value and Russell 2000 Growth indices, and business cycles were established following the National Bureau of Economic Research. Findings A negative MPU impact on stock returns has been found. In particular, the most subjective and difficult to arbitrate stocks have been more sensitive to MPU. However, it could not be concluded that MPU has a greater or lesser impact on stock returns depending on the economic cycle. Practical implications The findings obtained are particularly useful for monetary policymakers showing the importance and need for greater control over the transparency of their decisions to maintain the stability of financial markets. The findings obtained are also useful for investors when selecting their investment assets at times of the highest MPU. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the few studies investigating the effect of MPU on stock market returns, and the first to analyse this relationship taking into account the economic cycle and limits to arbitrage.

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