Sports sentiment and behavior of stock prices: a case of T-20 and IPL cricket matches

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 266-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gourishankar S. Hiremath ◽  
Hari Venkatesh ◽  
Manish Choudhury
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the emotions and sentiments related to the outcome of the sporting event influence the investment making process. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the data on stock prices of firms sponsoring the Indian premier league (IPL) teams and data on Indian stock market. The event-study frameworks along with autoregressive moving average and GMM regression are employed to empirical quantify the impacts of the performance of the IPL teams on the stock market returns of the sponsors’ stocks and response of Indian stock market to the outcome of T-20 international matches. Findings The paper finds that the team winning IPL title in a season has a positive impact on the returns of the sponsors’ stocks of a particular team, whereas loss of team has a negative impact on returns. The outcome of the cricket matches played by team India in the T-20 has a negligible effect on the Indian stock market. Practical implications The finding of the study implies the coexistence of emotions and rationality at different points in time and the relevance of adaptive market hypothesis to explain such time-varying behavior. Originality/value The present investigation is first of its kind to test whether the performance of the IPL cricket team can influence the stock returns of the sponsors. This research shows that sentiment related to sports event such as cricket influences the decision-making process and thus affects underlying stock prices.

scholarly journals NOISE TRADER RISK: EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

2019 ◽  
Vol 128 (5C) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Phan Khoa Cuong ◽  
Tran Thi Bich Ngoc ◽  
Bui Thanh Cong ◽  
Vo Thi Quynh Chau
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Noise Trader ◽  
Daily Stock Returns ◽  
Fundamental Value ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Daily Returns

<p><strong>Abstract: </strong>This paper investigates the existence of noise trader risk in Vietnam’s stock market and its effect on the daily returns of stock prices. The methodologies contain the estimation of GARCH (1,1) model to filter the residuals using the moving average method to calculate the impact of information traders. Noise trader risk or the risk that is caused by noise traders is derived by subtracting the residuals by the rational traders’ impact. We find that the noise trader risk does exist in Vietnam’s stock market and its impact on daily returns of stocks is unpredictable. Meanwhile, we find a positive impact of information traders on the stock returns. It increases the daily stock returns, and in turn, helps the market to correct itself because the stock prices move back to its fundamental value.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: noise trader risk, GARCH (1,1), Vietnam’s stock market</p>

Volatility and cross correlations of stock markets in SAARC nations

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Singhania ◽  
Shachi Prakash
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Indices

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine cross-correlation in stock returns of SAARC countries, conditional and unconditional volatility of stock markets and to test efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Design/methodology/approach – Stock indices of India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are considered to serve as proxy for stock markets in SAARC countries. Data consist of daily closing price of stock indices from 2000 to 2011. Since preliminary testing indicated presence of serial autocorrelation and volatility clustering, family of GARCH models is selected. Findings – Results indicate presence of serial autocorrelation in stock market returns, implying dependence of current stock prices on stock prices of previous times and leads to rejection of EMH. Significant relationship between stock market returns and unconditional volatility indicates investors’ expectation of extra risk premium for exposing their portfolios to unexpected variations in stock markets. Cross-correlation revealed level of integration of South Asian economies with global market to be high. Research limitations/implications – Business cycles and other macroeconomic developments affect most companies and lead to unexplained relationships. The paper finds stock markets to exist at different levels of development as economic liberalization started at different points of time in SAARC countries. Practical implications – Correlation between stock indices of SAARC economies are found to be low which is in line with intra-regional trade being one of lowest as compared to other regional groups. Results point towards greater need for economic cooperation and integration between SAARC countries. Greater financial integration leads to development of markets and institutions, effective price discovery, higher savings and greater economic progress. Originality/value – The paper focuses on EMH and risk return relation for SAARC nations.

Shariah-compliant investments and stock returns: evidence from the Indonesian stock market

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Devi Lusyana ◽  
Mohamed Sherif
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Investment Performance ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the Indonesia Shariah-compliant Stock Index (ISSI) on the performance of included shares. In essence, the authors ask whether the establishment of the ISSI provides abnormal returns for the firms that are not included in the Jakarta Index. Design/methodology/approach The authors use an event study methodology to estimate cumulative abnormal returns in the days surrounding the event to examine the relationship between Shariah-compliant investments and stock returns. The estimation window of 90 trading days prior to the event (−30) to day 60 after (+60) is adopted. They also use a range of investment performance measures to provide new evidence on whether faith-based ethical investments generate superior performance compared to their unscreened benchmarks. Findings Using daily returns, the Indonesia ISSI and panel data model, the findings show that the inclusion of the ISSI has a positive impact on the financial performance of the included shares during the 41-day event window. The evidence also suggests that the ethical investment has a significant influence on the performance of stock market returns. Research limitations/implications This study offers insights to policymakers, investors and fund managers interested in the indices’ performance. A key conclusion that could be derived by bodies that regulate Islamic products and services is that investors are not only concerned about what is profitable but also what makes their investments ethical. Originality/value Although the global growth of the Islamic capital market products and services has been tremendous in recent years, very few studies focus on the Indonesian market and indeed, none of them devote sufficient attention to Shariah-compliant investments and stock returns.

Stock returns in Islamic and conventional banks

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 629-646
Author(s):  
Ben Ltaifa Monia
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Explanatory Factors ◽  
Fama And French ◽  
Conventional Banks

Purpose This study aims to explore empirically the determinants of stock return in a comparative context between Islamic and conventional banks. Design/methodology/approach The analysis of the determinants of stock returns is carried out through a panel data model. This study covers 14 Islamic banks and 30 conventional banks in the MENA countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates) during 10 years, from 2004 to 2014. Findings The empirical results show that the market risk has a positive impact on market profitability of banks except for the small-medium (SM) and big-high (BH) portfolio for the capital asset pricing model and Fama and French models. The risk associated with the size (Small [market capitalization] Minus Big: SMB) has a positive impact on small banks and a negative impact on banks of big sizes. Finally, the risk related to the market value (High [book-to-market ratio] Minus Low: HML) has a positive impact on both small and large banks. Originality/value The answer to the question of explanatory factors for stock market returns allows managers to measure the cost of capital and thus choose the most appropriate form of financing and therefore evaluate the possibility of investing in a particular bank.

scholarly journals Daily New Covid-19 Cases, the Movement Control Order, and Malaysian Stock Market Returns

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 553-568
Author(s):  
Ricky Chee-Jiun Chia ◽  
Venus Khim-Sen Liew ◽  
Racquel Rowland
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The Movement Control Order (MCO) not only restricts movement of human being, it also reduces firms’ financial profits and brings significant impact to stock returns. The objective of this study is to examine the relation between Malaysian stock market returns and variables related to the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index and eight selected main indices from 2 January 2020 to April 30, 2020, which includes the first three MCOs, are considered in this study. The results show that daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths had negative but insignificant impact on the returns on indices. Interestingly, MCO had significant and positive impact on all the indices’ returns while oversea financial risks had negative impact on these returns. Furthermore, it is found that the degree of impacts of MCO and oversea financial risks varied positively with the firm size of the indices’ constituent companies. China’s decision on unchanged loan prime rate on the 20 February 2020 was a favorable news to the Malaysia stock markets as indicated by the positive returns on all the indices. Similarly, the degree of impact of the China interest policy also varied positively with the firms’ characteristics. These findings are useful for investors in the Bursa Malaysia to manage their investment portfolios based on their appetites for risk.

A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slah Bahloul ◽  
Nawel Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

Weather, investor psychology and stock returns: evidence from Fiji's stock market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Janesh Sami
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asset Pricing Models ◽  
Weather Changes ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThis paper investigates whether weather affects stock market returns in Fiji's stock market.Design/methodology/approachThe author employed an exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) modeling framework to examine the effect of weather changes on stock market returns over the sample period 9/02/2000–31/12/2020.FindingsThe results show that weather (temperature, rain, humidity and sunshine duration) have robust but heterogenous effects on stock market returns in Fiji.Research limitations/implicationsIt is useful for scholars to modify asset pricing models to include weather-related variables (temperature, rain, humidity and sunshine duration) to better understand Fiji's stock market dynamics (even though they are often viewed as economically neutral variables).Practical implicationsInvestors and traders should consider their mood while making stock market decisions to lessen mood-induced errors.Originality/valueThis is the first attempt to examine the effect of weather (temperature, rain, humidity and sunshine duration) on stock market returns in Fiji's stock market.

Do Indian stock market sentiments impact contemporaneous returns?

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 332-346
Author(s):  
Divya Aggarwal ◽  
Pitabas Mohanty
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Sentiments ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of Indian investor sentiments on contemporaneous stock returns of Bombay Stock Exchange, National Stock Exchange and various sectoral indices in India by developing a sentiment index. Design/methodology/approach The study uses principal component analysis to develop a sentiment index as a proxy for Indian stock market sentiments over a time frame from April 1996 to January 2017. It uses an exploratory approach to identify relevant proxies in building a sentiment index using indirect market measures and macro variables of Indian and US markets. Findings The study finds that there is a significant positive correlation between the sentiment index and stock index returns. Sectors which are more dependent on institutional fund flows show a significant impact of the change in sentiments on their respective sectoral indices. Research limitations/implications The study has used data at a monthly frequency. Analysing higher frequency data can explain short-term temporal dynamics between sentiments and returns better. Further studies can be done to explore whether sentiments can be used to predict stock returns. Practical implications The results imply that one can develop profitable trading strategies by investing in sectors like metals and capital goods, which are more susceptible to generate positive returns when the sentiment index is high. Originality/value The study supplements the existing literature on the impact of investor sentiments on contemporaneous stock returns in the context of a developing market. It identifies relevant proxies of investor sentiments for the Indian stock market.

scholarly journals Stock returns, illiquidity and feedback trading

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-145
Author(s):  
Jing Chen ◽  
David G. McMillan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Results ◽  
European Markets ◽  
Feedback Trading

Purpose This study aims to examine the relation between illiquidity, feedback trading and stock returns for several European markets, using panel regression methods, during the financial and the sovereign debt crises. The authors’ interest here lies twofold. First, the authors seek to compare the results obtained here under crisis conditions with those in the existing literature. Second, and of greater importance, the authors wish to examine the interaction between liquidity and feedback trading and their effect on stock returns. Design/methodology/approach The authors jointly model both feedback trading and illiquidity, which are typically considered in isolation. The authors use panel estimation methods to examine the relations across the European markets as a whole. Findings The key results suggest that in common with the literature, illiquidity has a negative impact upon contemporaneous stock returns, while supportive evidence of positive feedback trading is reported. However, in contrast to the existing literature, lagged illiquidity is not a priced risk, while negative shocks do not lead to greater feedback trading behaviour. Regarding the interaction between illiquidity and feedback trading, the study results support the view that greater illiquidity is associated with stronger positive feedback. Originality/value The study results suggest that when price changes are more observable, due to low liquidity, then feedback trading increases. Therefore, during the crisis periods that afflicted European markets, the lower levels of liquidity prevalent led to an increase in feedback trading. Thus, negative liquidity shocks that led to a fall in stock prices were exacerbated by feedback trading.

Asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on stock returns: evidence of two de facto regimes

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-173
Author(s):  
Walid M.A. Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Purpose This study focuses on Egypt’s recent experience with exchange rate policies, examining the existence of spillover effects of exchange rate variations on stock prices across two different de facto regimes and whether these effects, if any, are asymmetric. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis is carried out using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag modeling framework, which permits testing for the presence of short- and long-run asymmetries. Relevant local and global factors are also included in the analysis as control variables. The authors divide the entire sample into a soft peg period and a free float one. Findings Over the soft peg regime period, both positive and negative changes in EGP/USD exchange rates seem to have a significant impact on stock returns, whether in the short or long run. Short-term asymmetric effects vanish in the free float period, while long-term asymmetries continue to exist. By and large, the authors find that currency depreciation tends to exercise a stronger influence on stock returns than does currency appreciation. Practical implications The results offer important insights for investors, regulators and policymakers. With the domestic currency depreciation having a negative impact on stock prices, investors should contemplate implementing appropriate currency hedging strategies to abate depreciation risks and, hence, preserve their expected rate of return on the Egyptian pound-denominated investments. In the current post-flotation era, the government could pursue a flexible inflation targeting monetary policy framework, with a view to both lowering the soaring inflation toward an announced target rate and stabilizing economic growth. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could adopt indirect monetary policy instruments to secure tightened liquidity conditions. Besides, the CBE could raise policy rates to incentivize people to keep their money in local currency-denominated instruments, instead of dollarizing their savings, thereby relieving banks of foreign currency demand pressures. Nevertheless, while being beneficial to the country’s real economy on several aspects, such contractionary monetary measures may temporarily impinge on stock market performance. Accordingly, policymakers should consider precautionary measures that reduce the potential for price distortions and unnecessary volatility in the stock market. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study represents the first attempt to explore the potential impact of exchange rate changes under different regimes on Egypt’s stock market, thus contributing to the relevant research in this area.

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