Do FEARS drive Bitcoin?

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Burggraf ◽  
Toan Luu Duc Huynh ◽  
Markus Rudolf ◽  
Mei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Job Search ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Available Information ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study examines the prediction power of investor sentiment on Bitcoin return.Design/methodology/approachWe construct a Financial and Economic Attitudes Revealed by Search (FEARS) index using search volume from Google's search engine to reveal household-level (“bankruptcy”, “unemployment”, “job search”, etc.) and market-level sentiment (“bankruptcy”, “unemployment”, “job search”, etc.).FindingsUsing a variety of quantitative methodologies such as the transfer entropy model as well as threshold regression and OLS, GLS and 2SLS estimations, we find that (1) investor sentiment has strong predictive power on Bitcoin, (2) household-level sentiment has larger effects than market-level sentiment and (3) the impact of sentiment is greater in low sentiment regimes than in high sentiment regimes. Based on these information, we build a hypothetical trading strategy that outperforms a simple buy-and-hold strategy both on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis. The results are consistent across cryptocurrencies and regions.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings contribute to the ongoing debate in the literature on the efficiency of cryptocurrency markets. The results reveal that the Bitcoin market is not efficient in the sense of the efficient market hypothesis – asset prices do not fully reflect all available information and we were able to “beat the market”. In addition, it sheds further light on the debate whether Bitcoin can be considered a medium of exchange, i.e. a currency or an investment product. Because investors are reallocating their Bitcoin holdings during times of increased market sentiment due to liquidity needs, they obviously consider bitcoin an investment product rather than a currency.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine the impact of investor sentiment measured by FEARS on Bitcoin return.

scholarly journals The Impact of Investor Sentiment on Return of Different Industries in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Sumayya Chughtai Et al.,
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Principle Component Analysis ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Differential Impact ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Available Information ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

We classify stocks in different industries to measure industrial sentiment based on principle component analysis in order to examine whether investor sentiment exerts a differential impact on stock returns across different industries. After having constructed industry-level sentiment indices we construct a composite investor sentiment index. Our results suggest that investor sentiment negatively affects current as well as future stock returns in Pakistan over the examined period. However, we find that the influence of investor sentiment varies substantially across different industries. We also find that the market sentiment index has a negative relationship with both current and future stock returns. We also show that the direction of the relationship between return and sentiment remains same for the current and future period. This indicates that investors overreact to the available information and mispricing exists for a prolonged time. Our results confirm that sentiment driven mispricing persists for upcoming time and stock markets are not fully efficient to adjust instantaneously.

Islamic index market sentiment: evidence from the ASEAN market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nevi Danila ◽  
Kamilah Kamaludin ◽  
Sheela Sundarasen ◽  
Bunyamin Bunyamin
Keyword(s):  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Noise Traders ◽  
Muslim Population ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine investor sentiment by measuring the impact of market sentiment shocks on the volatility of the Islamic stock index of five ASEAN countries, with noise traders as a proxy for market sentiment. Design/methodology/approach The GJR-GARCH model is used to capture the empirically observed fact that negative shocks in the past period have a stronger impact on variance than positive shocks in the present. Findings All five ASEAN Islamic stock indices show clustering volatility. However, only three countries, namely, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, demonstrate leverage effects. In addition, the effect of market sentiment on Islamic stock index returns is observed in the Indonesian and Malaysian markets, which are the two largest Islamic markets with a dominant Muslim population in the ASEAN. This finding implies that the trading behaviours of Muslim investors in the Shariah market are the same as their behaviours in the conventional market, that is, nonadherence to the Sunnah. Practical implications Whilst establishing investment strategies, creating portfolios and providing client-advisory services, investors and fund managers should factor in the presence of market sentiment and its impact on stock performance and volatility. In addition, a capital market system preventing rumour-based transactions is compelling. Social implications In some markets, the Islamic financial products awareness should be increased through education to attract increased domestic investors with the potential to boost growth in the Islamic stock market. Originality/value Investigation market sentiment impacts on the Islamic stock index using noise traders as a proxy.

An investigation of time varying market efficiency: evidence from STOXX Europe Christian index

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 631-643
Author(s):  
Tayyaba Yousaf ◽  
Sadia Farooq ◽  
Ahmed Muneeb Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
New Information ◽  
Academic Researchers ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the STOXX Europe Christian price index (SECI) follows the premise of efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Design/methodology/approach The study used daily data of SECI for the period of 15 years as its launch date i.e. 31 December 2004 to 31 December 2019. Data are analyzed by taking a full-length sample and fixed-length subsample. For subsample, the data are divided into five subsamples of three years each. Subsample analysis is important for analyzing time varying efficiency of the series, as the market is said to follow EMH if it is being efficient throughout the sample. Both type of samples is examined through linear tests including autocorrelations test and variance ratio (VR) test. Findings Tests applied conclude that SECI is weak-form efficient, which means that the prices of the index include all the relevant past information and immediately react to new information. Hence, the investors cannot earn abnormal returns. Originality/value Religion-based indices grasped the attention of investors, policymakers and academic researchers because of increased concern over ethics in business. Though the impact of religion on the economy have been studied in many ways but the efficiency of religion-based indices have been less explored. The current study is primary in its nature as it analysis the efficiency of SECI. This index is important to explore because Christianity is the world’s top religion with 2.3 billion followers around the globe.

The influence of price and promotion on package size propensity

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-103
Author(s):  
Amit K. Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Product Category ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Grocery Stores ◽  
Consumer Decision Making ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Packaged Goods ◽  
Package Size ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The constantly changing prices, promotions, and packaging options have made decision making more complex for consumers of packaged goods. The purpose of this paper is to explore how price and promotions influence consumer propensity to buy a certain package size. Design/methodology/approach Scanner panel data for shelf-stable salad dressing obtained from Information Resources Inc. were used to compute the proportion of large packages bought, the relative price paid for large packages, propensity to use various types of promotions, and a behavioral covariate for each household. Data of over 5,600 households were analyzed using a multiple regression analysis for hypothesis testing. Findings The positive nature of relationship between the relative price of large packages and the proportion of large packages bought demonstrates the suboptimal nature of consumer decision making. The inefficiency is partially attributable to the abundance of promotions, to consumers’ lack of price awareness, and to the use of heuristics by consumers. Also, consumers who are prone to use promotions such as displays and temporary price reductions tend to purchase larger packages. They are more likely to buy impulsively and base their decisions on heuristics. In contrast, consumers who are influenced by featured price cuts and who utilize coupons tend to purchase smaller packages. Research limitations/implications Data were obtained from grocery stores; only a single product category was studied. Practical implications Offer coupons and advertise featured price cuts on small packages to increase the sales of smaller packages. To move large packages successfully, retailers should rely more on in-store displays and temporary price reductions. Originality/value The impact of price and promotions on package size propensity has never been investigated. This study is also one of the few that uses a household-level analysis based on observable purchase data for consumer packaged goods.

Impact of volatility and equity market uncertainty on herd behaviour: evidence from UK REITs

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omokolade Akinsomi ◽  
Yener Coskun ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Chi Keung Marco Lau
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regime Switching Model ◽  
Switching Model ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper aims to examine herding behaviour among investors and traders in UK-listed Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) within three market regimes (low, high and extreme volatility periods) from the period June 2004 to April 2016.Design/methodology/approachObservations of investors in 36 REITs that trade on the London Stock Exchange as at April 2016 were used to analyse herding behaviour among investors and traders of shares of UK REITs, using a Markov regime-switching model.FindingsAlthough a static herding model rejects the existence of herding in REITs markets, estimates from the regime-switching model reveal substantial evidence of herding behaviour within the low volatility regime. Most interestingly, the authors observed a shift from anti-herding behaviour within the high volatility regime to herding behaviour within the low volatility regime, with this having been caused by the FTSE 100 Volatility Index (UK VIX).Originality/valueThe results have various implications for decisions regarding asset allocation, diversification and value management within UK REITs. Market participants and analysts may consider that collective movements and market sentiment/psychology are determinative factors of risk-return in UK REITs. In addition, general uncertainty in the equity market, proxied by the impact of the UK VIX, may also provide a signal for increasing herding-related risks among UK REITs.

Internship impact on career consideration among business students

2016 ◽  
Vol 58 (9) ◽  
pp. 1003-1013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miriam Rothman ◽  
Ruth Sisman
Keyword(s):  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Job Search ◽  
Business Students ◽  
Career Path ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Job Functions ◽  
Analysis Methodology ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to report on the impact of the internship experience on business students’ career intentions in regard to pursuing a career path in the same job function or industry as their internship. Design/methodology/approach After completing and reflecting on an internship, 198 undergraduate students responded to the prompt: “discuss the impact of the internship on your career consideration.” Responses were analyzed using a content analysis methodology in order to determine whether or not interns would pursue the same job functions (e.g. sales) or industry (e.g. non-profit) as their internship in their post-graduation job search. Findings Across the job functions and industries identified within the internships, 54 and 45 percent of interns confirmed their expectations of career fit, respectively. The implications of confirming and disconfirming these expectations for students are discussed. Originality/value Given the value of internships to business students, surprisingly few studies have examined their influence on undergraduates’ career considerations. Students select internships with the intention of learning about job functions or industries for possible career fit, yet the authors know little about whether the experience confirms or disconfirms their expectations. This study seeks to address this gap. The authors suggest that internships, as experiential activities, merit greater attention as they provide students opportunities to learn what they do or do not want to do, where they do or do not want to work and whether their self-concept fits a possible career path – saving themselves and potential employers the cost of job dissatisfaction and turnover.

Real estate risk, yield modelling and market sentiment: the impact on pricing in European office markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tony McGough ◽  
Jim Berry
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Office Markets ◽  
Risk Pricing ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe financial and economic turmoil that resulted from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), included a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. Property asset prices were impacted by the real economy and market sentiment, particularly concerning the determination of risk. In an economic downturn, the perception of investment risk becomes increasingly important relative to overall total returns, and thus impacts on yields and performance of assets. In a recovery phase, and particularly within an environment of historically low government bonds, risk and return compete for importance. The aim of this paper is to assess the interrelationships and impacts on pricing between real estate risk, yield modelling outcomes and market sentiment in selective European city office markets.Design/methodology/approachThis paper specifically considers the modelling of commercial property pricing in relation to the appetite for risk in the financial markets. The paper expands on previous work by determining a specific measure of risk pricing in relationship to changing financial market sentiment. The methodology underpinning the research specifically examines the scope for using national and international risk pricing within specific real estate markets in Europe.FindingsThis paper addresses whether there is a difference between the impact of risk on the pricing of real estate in international versus regional cities in Europe. The analysis, therefore, determines which city centre office markets in Europe have been most impacted by globalisation including the magnitude on real estate prices and market volatility. The outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continues to drive yield movements under different market conditions.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper considers the driving forces which have led to the volatile movements of yields, emanating from the GFC.Practical implicationsThis paper considers the property market effects on pricing of commercial real estate and the drivers in selected European cities.Originality/valueThe outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continue to drive the yield movements in different real estate markets in Europe.

A guide on empirical tests of the EMH

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-295
Author(s):  
David Peón ◽  
Manel Antelo ◽  
Anxo Calvo
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Empirical Tests ◽  
Available Information

Purpose The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that asset prices in financial markets always reflect all available information about economic fundamentals. The purpose of this paper is to provide a guide as to which predictions of the EMH seem to be borne out by empirical evidence. Design/methodology/approach Rather than following the classic three groups of tests for the different forms of EMH that are common in the literature, the authors consider how the two alternative definitions of the EMH and the joint hypothesis problem impact on the tests and leave the controversy unsolved. The authors briefly report the antecedents, the main theoretical and empirical contributions and recent literature on each type of tests. Findings Eventually, as a summary for each type of tests, the authors provide a critical view on the main sources of acrimony between the alternative schools of thought in understanding asset price formation. Originality/value The paper may be seen as an up-to-date introductory review for researchers on the different tests of the EMH performed, and for newcomers to understand the key sources of acrimony between rationalists and behaviorists.

Migration and sustainable development in Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-94
Author(s):  
Ruttiya Bhula-or
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Theoretical Frameworks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Household Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Migration And Development

Purpose Previous studies have focused on migration and development from an economic perspective. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate sustainable migration and development in an integrative manner, including economic, social and environmental perspectives linking theoretical frameworks with empirical evidence in Thailand. Design/methodology/approach A framework of migration and sustainable development was developed in a structured and integrative manner, and the shift in migration and development patterns in Thailand was examined from an empirical and theoretical standpoint. Findings Migration contributes to Thailand’s economy in many ways. Migrant workers help to grow the economy, especially in labor-intensive sectors. This helps reduced income inequalities at the household level through remittances. Climate change will enhance migration, especially from neighboring countries and within Thailand itself, thus helping to reduce poverty and income inequality. Possible economic gains from migration, as well as circulating workers and international retirement migrants are highlighted. Research limitations/implications Only studies published in English or Thai were included, which may have resulted in the omission of some research. A need for rethinking policy design and implementation as a source of sustainable development is required. Originality/value Despite the recent influences of political and environmental changes, there has previously been no analysis of migration and sustainable development in Thailand in a structured and integrative manner as in this study. The impact of migration on the diffusion of new technology and brain drain issues was also addressed.

Investor sentiment and yield spread determinants: evidence from European markets

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (6) ◽  
pp. 739-762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyros Spyrou
Keyword(s):  
Default Risk ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Yield Spread ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
European Markets

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the yield spread determinants for a sample of European markets in the light of the recent financial crisis. It utilises findings from two different strands in the literature: findings on bond spread determinants and findings on the effect of investor sentiment on equity returns. Design/methodology/approach – The explanatory variables in the regression models proxy not only for economic fundamentals (e.g. economic activity, default risk, liquidity risk, general market conditions) but also for investor sentiment. A vector autoregressive approach is employed. Findings – The results indicate that fundamental variables are significant for the determination of the level of yield spreads, as suggested by previous studies. Local and international investor sentiment, however, both current and past, is also a statistically significant determinant for both the level and monthly changes of yield, especially during the crisis period 2007-2011. Research limitations/implications – The implication of this finding is significant for all parties involved: government officials, private lenders, EU/ECB/IMF officials, and market participants. Practical implications – Focusing solely on quantitative economic performance indicators may not have the desirable effect of reducing borrowing rates and facilitating the return to economic stability. Perhaps, reassuring and/or sending strong qualitative signals to financial markets may be as important. Involved agents may have to address not only technical financial issues but also the perception that market participants have about the proposed solutions to the crisis and eventually affect market sentiment. Originality/value – The issue of the effect of investor sentiment on government yield spreads during a crisis has not been investigated before.

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