Effectiveness of filter trading as an intraday trading rule

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling Xin ◽  
Kin Lam ◽  
Philip L.H. Yu
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Optimal Filter ◽  
Trading Rule ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Tick Data ◽  
Filter Size ◽  
Momentum Trading

Purpose Filter trading is a technical trading rule that has been used extensively to test the efficient market hypothesis in the context of long-term trading. In this paper, the authors adopt the rule to analyze intraday trading, in which an open position is not left overnight. This paper aims to explore the relationship between intraday filter trading profitability and intraday realized volatilities. The bivariate thin plate spline (TPS) model is chosen to fit the predictor-response surface for high frequency data from the Hang Seng index futures (HSIF) market. The hypotheses follow the adaptive market hypothesis, arguing that intraday filter trading differs in profitability under different market conditions as measured by realized volatility, and furthermore, the optimal filter size for trading on each day is related to the realized volatility. The empirical results furnish new evidence that range-based realized volatilities (RaV) are more efficient in identifying trading profit than return-based volatilities (ReV). These results shed light on the efficiency of intraday high frequency trading in the HSIF market. Some trading suggestions are given based on the findings. Design/methodology/approach Among all the factors that affect the profit of filter trading, intraday realized volatility stands out as an important predictor. The authors explore several intraday volatilities measures using range-based or return-based methods of estimation. The authors then study how the filter trading profit will depend on realized volatility and how the optimal filter size is related to the realized volatility. The bivariate TPS model is used to model the predictor-response relationship. Findings The empirical results show that range-based realized volatility has a higher predictive power on filter rule trading profit than the return-based realized volatility. Originality/value First, the authors contribute to the literature by investigating the profitability of the filter trading rule on high frequency tick-by-tick data of HSIF market. Second, the authors test the assumption that the magnitude of the intraday momentum trading profit depends on the realized volatilities and aims to identify a relationship between them. Furthermore, the authors consider several intraday realized volatilities and find the RaV have the higher prediction power than ReV. Finally, the authors find some relationship between the optimal filter size and the realized volatilities. Based on the observations, the authors also give some trading suggestions to the intraday filter traders.

Does VPIN provide predictive information for realized volatility forecasting: evidence from Chinese stock index futures market

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Conghua Wen ◽  
Fei Jia ◽  
Jianli Hao
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Trading Behavior ◽  
Volatility Forecasting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Intraday Data

PurposeUsing intraday data, the authors explore the forecast ability of one high frequency order flow imbalance measure (OI) based on the volume-synchronized probability of informed trading metric (VPIN) for predicting the realized volatility of the index futures on the China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300).Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ the heterogeneous autoregressive model for realized volatility (HAR-RV) and compare the forecast ability of models with and without the predictive variable, OI.FindingsThe empirical results demonstrate that the augmented HAR model incorporating OI (HARX-RV) can generate more precise forecasts, which implies that the order imbalance measure contains substantial information for describing the volatility dynamics.Originality/valueThe study sheds light on the relation between high frequency trading behavior and volatility forecasting in China's index futures market and reveals the underlying market mechanisms of liquidity-induced volatility.

scholarly journals Equity Risk: Measuring Return Volatility Using Historical High-Frequency Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 60-71
Author(s):  
Chow Alan ◽  
Lahtinen Kyre
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Equity Risk ◽  
Tick Data ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Pitman Closeness

AbstractMarket Volatility has been investigated at great lengths, but the measure of historical volatility, referred to as the relative volatility, is inconsistent. Using historical return data to calculate the volatility of a stock return provides a measure of the realized volatility. Realized volatility is often measured using some method of calculating a deviation from the mean of the returns for the stock price, the summation of squared returns, or the summation of absolute returns. We look to the stocks that make up the DJIA, using tick-by-tick data from June 2015 - May 2016. This research helps to address the question of what is the better measure of realized volatility? Several measures of volatility are used as proxies and are compared at four estimation time intervals. We review these measures to determine a closer/better fit estimator to the true realized volatility, using MSE, MAD, Diebold-Mariano test, and Pitman Closeness. We find that when using a standard deviation based on transaction level returns, shorter increments of time, while containing some levels of noise, are better estimates of volatility than longer increments.

Forecasting Exchange Rate Realized Volatility Through Decomposition Using High-Frequency Data

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rim mname Lamouchi ◽  
Russell mname Davidson ◽  
Ibrahim mname Fatnassi ◽  
Abderazak Ben mname Maatoug
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Frequency Data

Posteroventral pallidotomy for midbrain tremor after a pontine hemorrhage

1999 ◽  
Vol 91 (5) ◽  
pp. 885-888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasushi Miyagi ◽  
Fumio Shima ◽  
Katsuya Ishido ◽  
Masashi Moriguchi ◽  
Kazufumi Kamikaseda
Keyword(s):  
Upper Extremity ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Upper Extremities ◽  
Proximal Segment ◽  
Action Tremor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pontine Hemorrhage ◽  
Posteroventral Pallidotomy ◽  
Left Thalamus ◽  
Midbrain Tremor

✓ This 49-year-old man gradually developed a disabling action tremor in the proximal right upper extremity 8 months after suffering a pontine tegmental hemorrhage. The intraoperative microrecording in the nucleus ventralis intermedius (VIM) of the left thalamus revealed tremor-synchronous grouped discharges with a vigorous (2.7 Hz) action tremor predominantly in the shoulder and upper arm. High frequency electrical stimulation in the VIM did not affect the tremor. A posteroventral pallidotomy (PVP) was performed and resulted in the successful alleviation of all tremor activity. Posteroventral pallidotomy is known to alleviate parkinsonian tremors, especially those occurring in the contralateral lower extremity, trunk, and proximal segment of the contralateral upper extremity. The authors consider the pallidoreticular pathway to be an important tremor-mediating pathway for the proximal segment of the upper extremities and believe it can be controlled more effectively by PVP than by VIM thalamotomy, as demonstrated by the PVP-induced resolution of the midbrain tremor observed in this case.

An investigation of trust in e-banking

2015 ◽  
Vol 38 (12) ◽  
pp. 1267-1284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chian-Son Yu ◽  
Mehdi Asgarkhani
Keyword(s):  
Significant Influence ◽  
Holistic View ◽  
Banking Services ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Other Information ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Structural Assurance ◽  
Antecedents And Consequences ◽  
Academic Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to understand the connection among trust’s antecedents, dimensions and consequences in the context of e-banking. Design/methodology/approach – A survey of 510 and 122 respondents in Taiwan and New Zealand (NZ), respectively, was conducted. Findings – The empirical results indicate that, first, not all trusts’ precursors the authors considered have significant influence on generating consumers’ trust and, second, that influential weights of these precursors on building consumer trust vary across consumers and cultures. Meanwhile, all factors on the e-banking side hold greatly significant influence on consumers’ trust in both NZ and Taiwan cases. Research limitations/implications – Practical and academic implications culled from the empirical results are discussed, and these implications may also be applicable to other information and communication technology (ICT) solutions and innovation banking services. Practical implications – Before banks shift their focus on to trust resources of consumer side, banks are advised to create clients’ trust from e-banking side, such as situational normality and structural assurance. Originality/value – This paper takes a holistic view to investigate the links between trust’s dimensions, antecedents and consequences in a single research structure, and the implications may also be applicable to other ICT solutions and innovative banking services.

The dependence structure in volatility between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market in China

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 264-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingyuan Guo ◽  
Xu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Content Type

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the dependence structure in volatility between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market in China based on high-frequency data. Design/methodology/approach – Using a multiplicative error model (hereinafter MEM) to describe the margins in volatility of China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market, this study adopts static and time-varying copulas, respectively, estimated by maximum likelihood estimation method to describe the dependence structure in volatility between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market in China. Findings – This paper has identified the asymmetrical dependence structure in financial market volatility more precisely. Gumbel copula could best fit the empirical distribution as it can capture the relatively high dependence degree in the upper tail part corresponding to the period of volatile price fluctuation in both static and dynamic view. Originality/value – Previous scholars mostly use GARCH model to describe the margins for price volatility. As MEM can efficiently characterize the volatility estimators, this paper uses MEM to model the margins for the market volatility directly based on high-frequency data, and proposes a proper distribution for the innovation in the marginal models. Then we could use copula-MEM other than copula-GARCH model to study on the dependence structure in volatility between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market in China from a microstructural perspective.

An investigation of time varying market efficiency: evidence from STOXX Europe Christian index

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 631-643
Author(s):  
Tayyaba Yousaf ◽  
Sadia Farooq ◽  
Ahmed Muneeb Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
New Information ◽  
Academic Researchers ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the STOXX Europe Christian price index (SECI) follows the premise of efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Design/methodology/approach The study used daily data of SECI for the period of 15 years as its launch date i.e. 31 December 2004 to 31 December 2019. Data are analyzed by taking a full-length sample and fixed-length subsample. For subsample, the data are divided into five subsamples of three years each. Subsample analysis is important for analyzing time varying efficiency of the series, as the market is said to follow EMH if it is being efficient throughout the sample. Both type of samples is examined through linear tests including autocorrelations test and variance ratio (VR) test. Findings Tests applied conclude that SECI is weak-form efficient, which means that the prices of the index include all the relevant past information and immediately react to new information. Hence, the investors cannot earn abnormal returns. Originality/value Religion-based indices grasped the attention of investors, policymakers and academic researchers because of increased concern over ethics in business. Though the impact of religion on the economy have been studied in many ways but the efficiency of religion-based indices have been less explored. The current study is primary in its nature as it analysis the efficiency of SECI. This index is important to explore because Christianity is the world’s top religion with 2.3 billion followers around the globe.

Testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis for socially responsible and Shariah indexes in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Khan ◽  
Muhammad Yar Khan ◽  
Abdul Qayyum Khan ◽  
Majid Jamal Khan ◽  
Zia Ur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Purpose By testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) this study aims to forecast the short-term stock prices of the US Dow and Jones environmental socially responsible index (SRI) and Shariah compliance index (SCI). Design/methodology/approach This study checks the validity of the weak form of EMH for both SCI and SRI prices by using different parametric and non-parametric tests, i.e. augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Philip-Perron test, runs test and variance ratio test. If the EMH is invalid, the research further forecasts short-term stock prices by applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using daily price data from 2010 to 2018. Findings The research confirms that a weak form of EMH is not valid in the US SRI and SCI. The historical data can predict short-term future price movements by using technical ARIMA model. Research limitations/implications This study provides better guidance to risk-averse national and international investors to earn higher returns in the US SRI and SCI. This study can be extended to test the EMH of Islamic equity in the Middle East and North Africa region and other top Islamic indexes in the world. Originality/value This study is a new addition to the existing literature of equity investment and price forecasting by comparing and investigating the market efficiency of two interrelated US SRI and SCI.

High-Frequency Trading and its Role in Fragmented Markets

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 283-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Haferkorn
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
High Frequency Trading ◽  
Electronic Market ◽  
Coordination Costs ◽  
Major Transformation ◽  
Securities Trading ◽  
Term Analysis

Securities trading underwent a major transformation within the last decade. This transformation was mainly driven by the regulatory induced fragmentation and by the increase of high-frequency trading (HFT). On the basis of the electronic market hypothesis, which poses that coordination costs decline when markets become automated, and the efficient market hypothesis in its semi-strong form, we study the effect of HFT on market efficiency in the European fragmented market landscape. In doing so, we further incorporate the realm of financialization, which criticizes the increase in transaction speed. By conducting a long-term analysis of CAC 40 securities, we find that HFT increases market efficiency by leveling midpoints between Euronext Paris and Bats Chi-X Europe. On the basis of a crosscountry event study, we analyze the effect of the German HFT Act. We observe that the midpoint dispersion of blue chip securities between the two leading venues Deutsche Boerse and Bats Chi-X Europe increased. We conclude that HFT increases market efficiency in the European market landscape by transmitting information between distant markets.

Stakeholder dialogue on Facebook

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 257-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Martin
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Public Ownership ◽  
Stakeholder Dialogue ◽  
Dialogic Communication ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Utility Companies

Purpose German, Austrian and Swiss utilities are confronted with radical changes in the European energy sector. A dialogue between the utility companies and their various groups of stakeholders is gaining importance. Increasingly, utilities create their own Facebook presence enabling such a dialogue. Still, to the best of the author’s knowledge there exists no research which explicitly focuses the stakeholder dialogue of German, Austrian or Swiss utilities on Facebook. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to analyse Facebook as an instrument for dialogic communication in the energy sector. Design/methodology/approach An online survey was distributed to 1,280 German, Austrian and Swiss utilities, and 14 per cent of the utilities completed the survey, including 130 German, 19 Austrian and 25 Swiss companies. The participating utilities are primarily in public ownership. Findings The Facebook conversation of utility companies and their stakeholders meets the basic requirements of a virtual stakeholder dialogue. Nevertheless, less than half of the companies perceive their current stakeholder conversation on Facebook as truly interactive. Therefore, even if the basic requirements of a dialogue are met, most companies still do not seem to fully use the dialogue potential of Facebook. Originality/value This study provides first insights into virtual stakeholder dialogues in the energy sector. A suggestion to operationalise such a virtual dialogue is provided. Both operationalisation as well as the empirical results help researchers and practitioners to better understand virtual stakeholder dialogues.

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