Some conceptual and technical problems in integrating models of judgment with simulation models

1992 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.F. Andersen ◽  
J. Rohrbaugh
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Antje van der Zee-Neuen ◽  
Dagmar Schaffler-Schaden ◽  
Jürgen Herfert ◽  
James O´Brien ◽  
Tim Johansson ◽  
...  

AbstractSince the beginning of the COVID -19 pandemic, many contact sport teams are facing major challenges to safely continue training and competition. We present the design and implementation of a structured monitoring concept for the Austrian national football league. 146 professional players from five clubs of the professional Austrian football league were monitored for a period of 12 weeks. Subjective health parameters, PCR- test results and data obtained from a geo-tracking app were collected. Simulations modelling the consequences of a COVID-19 case with increasing reproduction number were computed. No COVID -19 infection occurred during the observation period in the players. Infections in the nearer surroundings lead to increased perceived risk of infection. Geo tracking was particularly hindered due to technical problems and reluctance of users. Simulation models suggested a hypothetical shut-down of all training and competition activities. A structured monitoring concept can help to continue contact sports safely in times of a pandemic. Cooperation of all involved is essential. Trial registration: ID: DRKS00022166 15/6/2020 https://www.who.int/ictrp/search/en/.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antje van der Zee-Neuen ◽  
Dagmar Schaffler-Schaden ◽  
Jürgen Herfert ◽  
James O’Brien ◽  
Tim Johansson ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundSince the beginning of the COVID -19 pandemic, many contact sport teams are facing major challenges to safely continue training and competition.ObjectiveWe present the design and implementation of a structured monitoring concept for the Austrian national football leagueMethods146 professional players from five clubs of the professional Austrian football league were monitored for a period of 12 weeks. Subjective health parameters, PCR- test results and data obtained from a geo-tracking app were collected. Simulations modelling the consequences of a COVID-19 case with increasing reproduction number were computed.ResultsNo COVID-19 infection occurred during the observation period in the players. Infections in the nearer surroundings lead to increased perceived risk of infection. Geo tracking was particularly hindered due to technical problems and reluctance of users. Simulation models suggested a hypothetical shut-down of all training and competition activities.ConclusionsA structured monitoring concept can help to continue contact sports safely in times of a pandemic. Cooperation of all involved is essential.Trial registrationID: DRKS00022166 15/6/2020 https://www.who.int/ictrp/search/en/Key Points-The results of this study can inform the development of future prevention and monitoring strategies in professional football and beyond, potentially serving as a blueprint for the safe continuation of sports and physical activity, across a broad range of settings, during and following a pandemic such as COVID-19.-Health parameters should be digitally recorded and closely monitored to enable quick response in case of a COVID-19 infection.


Author(s):  
R. Beeuwkes ◽  
A. Saubermann ◽  
P. Echlin ◽  
S. Churchill

Fifteen years ago, Hall described clearly the advantages of the thin section approach to biological x-ray microanalysis, and described clearly the ratio method for quantitive analysis in such preparations. In this now classic paper, he also made it clear that the ideal method of sample preparation would involve only freezing and sectioning at low temperature. Subsequently, Hall and his coworkers, as well as others, have applied themselves to the task of direct x-ray microanalysis of frozen sections. To achieve this goal, different methodological approachs have been developed as different groups sought solutions to a common group of technical problems. This report describes some of these problems and indicates the specific approaches and procedures developed by our group in order to overcome them. We acknowledge that the techniques evolved by our group are quite different from earlier approaches to cryomicrotomy and sample handling, hence the title of our paper. However, such departures from tradition have been based upon our attempt to apply basic physical principles to the processes involved. We feel we have demonstrated that such a break with tradition has valuable consequences.


Author(s):  
William H. Massover

Stereoscopic examination of thick sections of fixed and embedded biological tissues by high voltage electron microscopy has been shown to allow direct visualization of three-dimensional fine structure. The present report will consider the occurrence of some new technical problems in specimen preparation and Image interpretation that are not common during lower voltage studies of thin sections.Thick Sectioning and Tissue Coloration - Epon sections of 0.5 μm or more that are cut with glass knives do not have a uniform thickness as Judged by their interference colors; these colors change with time during their flotation on the knife bath, and again when drying onto the specimen support. Quoted thicknesses thus must be considered only as rough estimates unless measured in specific regions by other methods. Chloroform vapors do not always result in good spreading of thick sections; however, they will spread spontaneously to large degrees after resting on the flotation bath for several minutes. Ribbons of thick sections have been almost impossible to obtain.


Author(s):  
C. A. Callender ◽  
Wm. C. Dawson ◽  
J. J. Funk

The geometric structure of pore space in some carbonate rocks can be correlated with petrophysical measurements by quantitatively analyzing binaries generated from SEM images. Reservoirs with similar porosities can have markedly different permeabilities. Image analysis identifies which characteristics of a rock are responsible for the permeability differences. Imaging data can explain unusual fluid flow patterns which, in turn, can improve production simulation models.Analytical SchemeOur sample suite consists of 30 Middle East carbonates having porosities ranging from 21 to 28% and permeabilities from 92 to 2153 md. Engineering tests reveal the lack of a consistent (predictable) relationship between porosity and permeability (Fig. 1). Finely polished thin sections were studied petrographically to determine rock texture. The studied thin sections represent four petrographically distinct carbonate rock types ranging from compacted, poorly-sorted, dolomitized, intraclastic grainstones to well-sorted, foraminiferal,ooid, peloidal grainstones. The samples were analyzed for pore structure by a Tracor Northern 5500 IPP 5B/80 image analyzer and a 80386 microprocessor-based imaging system. Between 30 and 50 SEM-generated backscattered electron images (frames) were collected per thin section. Binaries were created from the gray level that represents the pore space. Calculated values were averaged and the data analyzed to determine which geological pore structure characteristics actually affect permeability.


Author(s):  
Marta K. Isaeva

The paper dedicates in commemoration of K.A. Bagrinovsky, known scientist, doctor of economic sciences, professor. His thesis was theoretic problems of mathematical modeling and operation of economy. His works in the operations research, the methods making decision, the simulation were received in scientific world. The analysis and the modeling of the mechanisms for scientific and technological development for the production systems of different level in economic hierarchic both centrally controlled economy and making mechanism were conduced by Bagrinovsky in CEMI RAS. The paper presents the investigations (2001–2015) of the analysis and the simulation of the different mechanisms of the innovational activity. It also discusses the methods of the development the complex of the simulation models. In a sense simulation modeling is the science and the art as the selection of the salient parameters for the construction model, intake simplification, the computer experiment and the making decision based on scarcity of accuracy models rest on the heuristic power of men: the practical trial, the intelligence and the intuition. K.A. Bagrinovsky introduced the considerable endowment in the development of this direction for economic and mathematical investigation.The principal object was to show that the relationship between the innovational policy and the technological structure, scientific research sector and the introducing of the progressive production and the organizational structure is obtainable by the models. The character of these relationships may be to use in control of the parameters for the modernization economic. The construction simulation models and the experimental computation analysis were presented the investigations the different mechanisms of the innovational development ant the variants of the estimation have been accomplished on the modeling level by the computer experiment.


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