Communication Architecture for the Ponding Flood Prediction Model

Rainfall-runoff model requires comprehensive computation as its relation is a complex natural phenomenon. Various inter-related processes are involved with factors such as rainfall intensity, geomorphology, climatic and landscape are all affecting runoff response. In general there is no single rainfall-runoff model that can cater to all flood prediction system with varying topological area. Hence, there is a vital need to have custom-tailored prediction model with specific range of data, type of perimeter and antecedent hour of prediction to meet the necessity of the locality. In an attempt to model a reliable rainfall-runoff system for a flood-prone area in Malaysia, 3 different approach of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are modelled based on the data acquired from Sungai Pahang, Pekan. In this paper, the ANN rainfall-runoff models are trained by the Levenberg Marquardt (LM), Bayesian Regularization (BR) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The performances of the learning algorithms are compared and evaluated based on a 12-hour prediction model. The results demonstrate that LM produces the best model. It outperforms BR and PSO in terms of convergence rate, lowest mean square error (MSE) and optimum coefficeint of correlation. Furthermore, the LM approach are free from overfitting, which is a crucial concern in conventional ANN learning algorithm. Our case study takes the data of rainfall and runoff from the year 2012 to 2014. This is a case study in Pahang river basin, Pekan, Malaysia.

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Analysis of Model Performance and Implementation of an Optimized Flood Prediction Model Using Data Mining Techniques

International Journal of Advanced Trends in Computer Science and Engineering ◽

10.30534/ijatcse/2021/581022021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 888-893

Keyword(s):

Prediction Model ◽

Model Performance ◽

Warning System ◽

Support Vector ◽

Ann Model ◽

Flood Prediction ◽

River Region ◽

Input Variables ◽

Using Data ◽

Artificial Neural Network Ann

Flooding is a major problem globally, and especially in SuratThani province, Thailand. Along the lower Tapeeriver in SuratThani, the population density is high. Implementing an early warning system can benefit people living along the banks here. In this study, our aim was to build a flood prediction model using artificial neural network (ANN), which would utilize water and stream levels along the lower Tapeeriver to predict floods. This model was used to predict flood using a dataset of rainfall and stream levels measured at local stations. The developed flood prediction model consisted of 4 input variables, namely, the rainfall amounts and stream levels at stations located in the PhraSeang district (X.37A), the Khian Sa district (X.217), and in the Phunphin district (X.5C). Model performance was evaluated using input data spanning a period of eight years (2011–2018). The model performance was compared with support vector machine (SVM), and ANN had better accuracy. The results showed an accuracy of 97.91% for the ANN model; however, for SVM it was 97.54%. Furthermore, the recall (42.78%) and f-measure (52.24%) were better for our model, however, the precision was lower. Therefore, the designed flood prediction model can estimate the likelihood of floods around the lower Tapee river region

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Prediction of Flash Flood using Rainfall by MLP Classifier

International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering - 2 ◽

10.35940/ijrte.f9880.059120 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 425-429

Keyword(s):

Prediction Model ◽

Nearest Neighbor ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Flash Flood ◽

Human Life ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Rainfall Data ◽

Support Vector ◽

K Nearest Neighbor ◽

Flood Prediction

Flood are one of the unfavorable natural disasters. A flood can result in a huge loss of human lives and properties. It can also affect agricultural lands and destroy cultivated crops and trees. The flood can occur as a result of surface-runoff formed from melting snow, long-drawn-out rains, and derisory drainage of rainwater or collapse of dams. Today people have destroyed the rivers and lakes and have turned the natural water storage pools to buildings and construction lands. Flash floods can develop quickly within a few hours when compared with a regular flood. Research in prediction of flood has improved to reduce the loss of human life, property damages, and various problems related to the flood. Machine learning methods are widely used in building an efficient prediction model for weather forecasting. This advancement of the prediction system provides cost-effective solutions and better performance. In this paper, a prediction model is constructed using rainfall data to predict the occurrence of floods due to rainfall. The model predicts whether “flood may happen or not” based on the rainfall range for particular locations. Indian district rainfall data is used to build the prediction model. The dataset is trained with various algorithms like Linear Regression, K- Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machine, and Multilayer Perceptron. Among this, MLP algorithm performed efficiently with the highest accuracy of 97.40%. The MLP flash flood prediction model can be useful for the climate scientist to predict the flood during a heavy downpour with the highest accuracy.

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