scholarly journals Analysis of Model Performance and Implementation of an Optimized Flood Prediction Model Using Data Mining Techniques

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 888-893
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
River Region ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Flooding is a major problem globally, and especially in SuratThani province, Thailand. Along the lower Tapeeriver in SuratThani, the population density is high. Implementing an early warning system can benefit people living along the banks here. In this study, our aim was to build a flood prediction model using artificial neural network (ANN), which would utilize water and stream levels along the lower Tapeeriver to predict floods. This model was used to predict flood using a dataset of rainfall and stream levels measured at local stations. The developed flood prediction model consisted of 4 input variables, namely, the rainfall amounts and stream levels at stations located in the PhraSeang district (X.37A), the Khian Sa district (X.217), and in the Phunphin district (X.5C). Model performance was evaluated using input data spanning a period of eight years (2011–2018). The model performance was compared with support vector machine (SVM), and ANN had better accuracy. The results showed an accuracy of 97.91% for the ANN model; however, for SVM it was 97.54%. Furthermore, the recall (42.78%) and f-measure (52.24%) were better for our model, however, the precision was lower. Therefore, the designed flood prediction model can estimate the likelihood of floods around the lower Tapee river region

scholarly journals Advanced approaches to hot-mix asphalt dynamic modulus prediction

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (7) ◽  
pp. 699-707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Halil Ceylan ◽  
Kasthurirangan Gopalakrishnan ◽  
Sunghwan Kim
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Dynamic Modulus ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Hot Mix Asphalt ◽  
Logical Structure ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
National Cooperative

The dynamic modulus (|E*|) is one of the primary hot-mix asphalt (HMA) material property inputs at all three hierarchical levels in the new Mechanistic–empirical pavement design guide (MEPDG). The existing |E*| prediction models were developed mainly from regression analysis of an |E*| database obtained from laboratory testing over many years and, in general, lack the necessary accuracy for making reliable predictions. This paper describes the development of a simplified HMA |E*| prediction model employing artificial neural network (ANN) methodology. The intelligent |E*| prediction models were developed using the latest comprehensive |E*| database that is available to researchers (from National Cooperative Highway Research Program Report 547) containing 7400 data points from 346 HMA mixtures. The ANN model predictions were compared with the Hirsch |E*| prediction model, which has a logical structure and a relatively simple prediction model in terms of the number of input parameters needed with respect to the existing |E*| models. The ANN-based |E*| predictions showed significantly higher accuracy compared with the Hirsch model predictions. The sensitivity of input variables to the ANN model predictions were also examined and discussed.

scholarly journals Performance Comparison of Data Mining Classification Algorithms for Early Warning System of Students Graduation Timeliness

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 158-163
Author(s):  
Ari Fadli ◽  
Mulki Indana Zulfa ◽  
Yogi Ramadhani
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Performance Comparison ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Classification Algorithms ◽  
Student Graduation ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Observation of growing academic data can be carried using data mining methods, for example, to obtain knowledge related to the determinants of timeliness of students graduation. This study conducted a performance comparison of the classification algorithms using decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN). This study used students academic data from Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman in the 2014/2015 odd semester until the 2017/2018 odd semester and the attributes that conform to the academic regulations. The analytical method used is CRISP-DM. The results showed that SVM provided the best performance in an accuracy of 90.55% and AUC of 0.959, compared to other algorithms. A Model with SVM algorithm can be implemented in an early warning system for timeliness of student graduation.

scholarly journals Modeling Fused Filament Fabrication using Artificial Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Oehlmann ◽  
Paul Osswald ◽  
Juan Camilo Blanco ◽  
Martin Friedrich ◽  
Dominik Rietzel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Print Quality ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Production Environment ◽  
Fused Filament Fabrication ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

AbstractWith industries pushing towards digitalized production, adaption to expectations and increasing requirements for modern applications, has brought additive manufacturing (AM) to the forefront of Industry 4.0. In fact, AM is a main accelerator for digital production with its possibilities in structural design, such as topology optimization, production flexibility, customization, product development, to name a few. Fused Filament Fabrication (FFF) is a widespread and practical tool for rapid prototyping that also demonstrates the importance of AM technologies through its accessibility to the general public by creating cost effective desktop solutions. An increasing integration of systems in an intelligent production environment also enables the generation of large-scale data to be used for process monitoring and process control. Deep learning as a form of artificial intelligence (AI) and more specifically, a method of machine learning (ML) is ideal for handling big data. This study uses a trained artificial neural network (ANN) model as a digital shadow to predict the force within the nozzle of an FFF printer using filament speed and nozzle temperatures as input data. After the ANN model was tested using data from a theoretical model it was implemented to predict the behavior using real-time printer data. For this purpose, an FFF printer was equipped with sensors that collect real time printer data during the printing process. The ANN model reflected the kinematics of melting and flow predicted by models currently available for various speeds of printing. The model allows for a deeper understanding of the influencing process parameters which ultimately results in the determination of the optimum combination of process speed and print quality.

Modeling of lime production process using artificial neural network

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abolghasem Daeichian ◽  
Rana Shahramfar ◽  
Elham Heidari
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Production Process ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Rotary Kilns ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Lime Production

Abstract Lime is a significant material in many industrial processes, including steelmaking by blast furnace. Lime production through rotary kilns is a standard method in industries, yet it has depreciation, high energy consumption, and environmental pollution. A model of the lime production process can help to not only increase our knowledge and awareness but also can help reduce its disadvantages. This paper presents a black-box model by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the lime production process considering pre-heater, rotary kiln, and cooler parameters. To this end, actual data are collected from Zobahan Isfahan Steel Company, Iran, which consists of 746 data obtained in a duration of one year. The proposed model considers 23 input variables, predicting the amount of produced lime as an output variable. The ANN parameters such as number of hidden layers, number of neurons in each layer, activation functions, and training algorithm are optimized. Then, the sensitivity of the optimum model to the input variables is investigated. Top-three input variables are selected on the basis of one-group sensitivity analysis and their interactions are studied. Finally, an ANN model is developed considering the top-three most effective input variables. The mean square error of the proposed models with 23 and 3 inputs are equal to 0.000693 and 0.004061, respectively, which shows a high prediction capability of the two proposed models.

scholarly journals Modelling and Prediction of Monthly Global Irradiation Using Different Prediction Models

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2332
Author(s):  
Cecilia Martinez-Castillo ◽  
Gonzalo Astray ◽  
Juan Carlos Mejuto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Random Forests ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Global Irradiation ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Using Data

Different prediction models (multiple linear regression, vector support machines, artificial neural networks and random forests) are applied to model the monthly global irradiation (MGI) from different input variables (latitude, longitude and altitude of meteorological station, month, average temperatures, among others) of different areas of Galicia (Spain). The models were trained, validated and queried using data from three stations, and each best model was checked in two independent stations. The results obtained confirmed that the best methodology is the ANN model which presents the lowest RMSE value in the validation and querying phases 1226 kJ/(m2∙day) and 1136 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively, and predict conveniently for independent stations, 2013 kJ/(m2∙day) and 2094 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively. Given the good results obtained, it is convenient to continue with the design of artificial neural networks applied to the analysis of monthly global irradiation.

Assessment of nominal data requirements for robust estimation of fractional snow cover in alpine-forested terrain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elzbieta Wisniewski ◽  
Wit Wisniewski
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Linear Modeling ◽  
Nominal Data ◽  
Fractional Snow Cover ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Input Variables

<p>The presented research examines what minimum combination of input variables are required to obtain state-of-the-art fractional snow cover (FSC) estimates for heterogeneous alpine-forested terrains. Currently, one of the most accurate FSC estimators for alpine regions is based on training an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that can deconvolve the relationships among numerous compounded and possibly non-linear bio-geophysical relations encountered in alpine terrain. Under the assumption that the ANN optimally extracts available information from its input data, we can exploit the ANN as a tool to assess the contributions toward FSC estimation of each of the data sources, and combinations thereof. By assessing the quality of the modeled FSC estimates versus ground equivalent data, suitable combinations of input variables can be identified. High spatial resolution IKONOS images are used to estimate snow cover for ANN training and validation, and also for error assessment of the ANN FSC results. Input variables are initially chosen representing information already incorporated into leading snow cover estimators (ex. two multispectral bands for NDSI, etc.). Additional variables such as topographic slope, aspect, and shadow distribution are evaluated to observe the ANN as it accounts for illumination incidence and directional reflectance of surfaces affecting the viewed radiance in complex terrain. Snow usually covers vegetation and underlying geology partially, therefore the ANN also has to resolve spectral mixtures of unobscured surfaces surrounded by snow. Multispectral imagery if therefore acquired in the fall prior to the first snow of the season and are included in the ANN analyses for assessing the baseline reflectance values of the environment that later become modified by the snow. In this study, nine representative scenarios of input data are selected to analyze the FSC performance. Numerous selections of input data combinations produced good results attesting to the powerful ability of ANNs to extract information and utilize redundancy. The best ANN FSC model performance was achieved when all 15 pre-selected inputs were used. The need for non-linear modeling to estimate FSC was verified by forcing the ANN to behave linearly. The linear ANN model exhibited profoundly decreased FSC performance, indicating that non-linear processing more optimally estimates FSC in alpine-forested environments.</p>

scholarly journals Simulating the Stress-Strain Relationship of Geomaterials by Support Vector Machine

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongbo Zhao ◽  
Zenghui Huang ◽  
Zhengsheng Zou
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Constitutive Relationship ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Nonlinear Relationship ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Stress Strain ◽  
Svm Model ◽  
Strain Relationship ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Relationship Of

Stress-strain relationship of geomaterials is important to numerical analysis in geotechnical engineering. It is difficult to be represented by conventional constitutive model accurately. Artificial neural network (ANN) has been proposed as a more effective approach to represent this complex and nonlinear relationship, but ANN itself still has some limitations that restrict the applicability of the method. In this paper, an alternative method, support vector machine (SVM), is proposed to simulate this type of complex constitutive relationship. The SVM model can overcome the limitations of ANN model while still processing the advantages over the traditional model. The application examples show that it is an effective and accurate modeling approach for stress-strain relationship representation for geomaterials.

scholarly journals Modeling the concentration of carbonyl of ethylene propylene diene monomer during the thermal aging using artificial neural network

2021 ◽  
Vol 03 (01) ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
Hadjira Maouz ◽  
◽  
Asma Adda ◽  
Salah Hanini ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Thermal Aging ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Ethylene Propylene Diene Monomer ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Ethylene Propylene ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

The concentration of carbonyl is one of the most important properties contributing to the detection of the thermal aging of polymer ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM). In this publication, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to predict concentration of carbenyl during the thermal aging of EPDM using a database consisting of seven input variables. The best fitting training data was obtained with the architecture of (7 inputs neurons, 10 hidden neurons and 1 output neuron). A Levenberg Marquardt learning (LM) algorithm, hyperbolic tangent transfer function were used at the hidden and output layer respectively. The optimal ANN was obtained with a high correlation coefficient R= 0.995 and a very low root mean square error RMSE = 0.0148 mol/l during the generalization phase. The comparison between the experimental and calculated results show that the ANN model is able of predicted the concentration of carbonyl during the thermal aging of ethylene propylene diene monomer

scholarly journals Flood Prediction and Warning System using Dam Data Monitoring

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 294-298
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Dam Management ◽  
Weather Parameters ◽  
The Impact

Flood is one of the most devastating natural calamities affecting parts of the state from past few years. The recurring calamity necessitates an efficient early warning system since anticipation and preparedness play a key role in mitigating the impact. Though heavy and erratic rainfall has been marked as one of the main reasons for flood in several places, flood witnessed by various regions of Kerala was the result of sudden opening of reservoirs indicating poor dam management. The unforeseen flow of water often provided less time for evacuation. Prediction thus plays key role in avoiding loss of life and property, followed by such calamities. The vast benefits and potentials offered by Machine Learning makes it the most promising approach. The developed system is a model by taking Malampuzha Dam as reference. Support Vector Machine (SVM) is used as machine learning method for prediction and is programmed in python. The idea has been to create early flood prediction and warning system by monitoring different weather parameters and dam-related data. The feature vectors include current live storage, current reservoir level, rainfall and relative humidity from the period 2016-2019. Based on the analysis of these parameters, the open/closure of shutters of the dam is predicted. Release of shutters has varied impacts in the nearby regions and is measured by succeeding prediction, by mapping regions on grounds of level warning to be issued. Warning is issued through Flask-based server, by identifying vulnerable areas based on flood hazard reference for regions. The dam status prediction model delivered highest prediction accuracy of 99.14% and associated levels of warning has been generated in the development server, thus preventing unexpected release.

scholarly journals Prediction Model of Iron Ore Pellet Ambient Strength and Sensitivity Analysis on the Influence Factors

Metals ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 593 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiangjian Gao ◽  
Yingyi Zhang ◽  
Xin Jiang ◽  
Haiyan Zheng ◽  
Fengman Shen
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Influence Factors ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Bp Network ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

The Ambient Compressive Strength (CS) of pellets, influenced by several factors, is regarded as a criterion to assess pellets during metallurgical processes. A prediction model based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was proposed in order to provide a reliable and economic control strategy for CS in pellet production and to forecast and control pellet CS. The dimensionality of 19 influence factors of CS was considered and reduced by Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The PCA variables were then used as the input variables for the Back Propagation (BP) neural network, which was upgraded by Genetic Algorithm (GA), with CS as the output variable. After training and testing with production data, the PCA-GA-BP neural network was established. Additionally, the sensitivity analysis of input variables was calculated to obtain a detailed influence on pellet CS. It has been found that prediction accuracy of the PCA-GA-BP network mentioned here is 96.4%, indicating that the ANN network is effective to predict CS in the pelletizing process.

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