scholarly journals Simulation metamodeling in the presence of model inadequacy

Author(s):  
Xiaowei Zhang ◽  
Lu Zou
Author(s):  
Alexander L. Brown

Transportation accidents and the subsequent fire present a concern. Particularly energetic accidents like an aircraft impact or a high speed highway accident can be quite violent. We would like to develop and maintain a capability at Sandia National Laboratories to model these very challenging events. We have identified Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) as a good method to employ for the impact dynamics of the fluid for severe impacts. SPH is capable of modeling viscous and inertial effects for these impacts for short times. We have also identified our fire code Lagrangian/Eulerian (L/E) particle capability as an adequate method for fuel transport and spray modeling. A fire code can also model the subsequent fire for a fuel impact. Surface deposition of the liquid may also be acceptably predicted with the same code. These two methods (SPH and L/E) typically employ complimentary length and timescales for the calculation, and are potentially suited for coupling given adequate attention to relevant details. Length and timescale interactions are important considerations when joining the two capabilities. Additionally, there are physical model inadequacy considerations that contribute to the accuracy of the methodology. These models and methods are presented and evaluated. Some of these concerns are detailed for a verification type scenario used to show the work in progress of this coupling capability. The importance of validation methods and their appropriate application to the genesis of this class of predictive tool are also discussed.


Kybernetes ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 39 (9/10) ◽  
pp. 1583-1614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristjan Ambroz ◽  
Alda Derencin

Author(s):  
Igor Loboda ◽  
Sergey Yepifanov ◽  
Yakov Feldshteyn

Monitoring algorithms analyzing measured gas path variables provide invaluable insight into gas turbine operating health. Some useful information about a gas turbine and its measurement system can be obtained from a direct analysis of raw measurements. To draw more comprehensive diagnostic information, deviations are usually calculated as discrepancies between the measured and baseline values of monitored variables. The deviations can serve as good indicators of different engine degradation mechanisms. However, there are many negative factors that tend to mask degradation effects. For a long period of time we have analyzed quality of gas path measurement data and a deviation accuracy problem of a gas turbine power plant driving a natural gas pipeline compressor. Possible error sources were examined and some methods were proposed to improve the accuracy of deviation calculations. This paper looks at maintenance data of another object, the General Electric LM2500 gas turbine used as a drive of an electric generator. The data cover prolonged periods of axial compressor fouling with washings between them, and provide valuable information for a deviation examination. In order to reduce deviation errors, the paper considers different cases of the abnormal functioning of the sensors and baseline model inadequacy and proposes measures to avoid them. As a result of these and previous efforts, the deviations have become good fouling indicators. They are capable to quantify the increase of exhaust gas temperature (EGT) and, consequently, to improve planning axial compressor washings.


2000 ◽  
Vol 54 (8) ◽  
pp. 1208-1213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel Tellinghuisen

Spectrophotometric data are inherently heteroscedastic, which means that least-squares component analyses of absorbance spectra should properly employ weighted fits. The effects of neglecting weights (the common practice) is examined through Monte Carlo calculations on a three-peak model having two closely overlapping components of comparable strength and a third component that appears as a weak shoulder. The results show statistically significant loss of precision in all parameters; however the magnitude of this loss is ≤30% for realistic conditions. For comparison, experimental spectra of I2 in CCl4 (which was the basis for the Monte Carlo test model) are similarly analyzed. These results suggest that model inadequacy is likely to be a greater practical problem than neglect of weights, because the great precision of spectrophotometric data places extreme demands on the fit model. In the present instance, for example, incorporation of a correction term for the sinusoidal error in the spectrometer wavelength significantly reduces the fit chi-square.


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