Highly mixed impacts of near‐future climate change on stock productivity proxies in the North East Atlantic

<p>This study assesses the recent (1990-2015) and near future (2020-2045) climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula. For the recent period, we make the use of available observations, ECMWF&#8217;s ERA5 and its predecessor ERA-Interim, as well as regional climate model simulations. Given the different climate characteristics at each side of the mountain barrier, we principally assess the results considering the windward and leeward sides. We use hindcast simulations performed with Polar-WRF over the Antarctic Peninsula on a nested domain configuration at 45 km (PWRF-45) and 15 km (PWRF-15) spatial resolutions for the period 1990-2015. In addition, we include hindcast simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica domain (~ 50 km) for further comparisons. For the near future climate change evaluation, we principally use historical simulations and climate change projections (until 2050s, RCP85) performed with PWRF (forced with NCAR-CESM1) on the same domain configuration of the hindcast simulations. Recent observed trends show contrasts between summer and autumn. Annual warming (cooling) trend is notable on the windward (leeward) coasts of the peninsula. Unlike the reanalysis, numerical simulations indicate a clear pattern of windward warming and leeward cooling at annual time-scale. These temperature changes are accompanied by a decreasing and increasing trend in sea ice on the windward and leeward coasts, respectively. An increasing trend of precipitation is notable on the central and northern peninsula. High resolution climate change projections (PWRF-15, RCP85) indicate that the recent warming trend on the windward coasts tends to continue in the near future (2020-2045) and the projections exhibit an increase in temperature by ~ 1.5&#176;C and 0.5&#176;C on the windward and leeward coasts, respectively. In the same period, the projections show an increase in precipitation over the peninsula (5% to 10%). The more notable warming projected on the windward side causes more increases in surface melting (~ +20% to +80%) and more sea ice loss (-4% to -20%) on this side. Results show that the windward coasts of central and northern Antarctic Peninsula can be considered as "hotspots" with notable increases in temperature, surface melting and sea ice loss.</p>

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Future climate change scenarios shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation response

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8452 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Katinka Bellomo ◽

Michela Angeloni ◽

Susanna Corti ◽

Jost von Hardenberg

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Climate Model ◽

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

The North ◽

Meridional Overturning ◽

Climate Model Simulations

<div> <div> <div> <p>In climate model simulations of future climate change, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to decline. However, the impacts of this decline, relative to other&#160;changes, remain to be identified. Here we address this problem by analyzing 30 idealized abrupt-4xCO2 climate model simulations. We find that in models with larger AMOC decline, there is a minimum warming in the North Atlantic, a southward displacement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet. The changes in the models with smaller AMOC decline are drastically different: there is a relatively larger warming in the North Atlantic, the precipitation response exhibits a wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier pattern, and there are smaller displacements of the mid-latitude jet. Our study indicates that the AMOC is a major source of inter-model uncertainty, and continued observational efforts are needed to constrain the AMOC response in future climate change.</p> </div> </div> </div>

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Projected climate change impacts on tropical life zones in Costa Rica

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment ◽

10.1177/03091333211047046 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 030913332110470

Author(s):

Christian Birkel ◽

Joni Dehaspe ◽

Andrés Chavarría-Palma ◽

Nelson Venegas-Cordero ◽

Rene Capell ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Costa Rica ◽

Costa Rican ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Data ◽

Biological Corridors ◽

Ecosystem Indicators ◽

Near Future

Efforts to protect tropical ecosystems aim at implementing biological corridors across the national territory of Costa Rica. However, potential near-future climate change challenges the effectiveness of such conservation measures. For this purpose, we developed near-future climate change scenarios at high spatial resolution using open-access global data from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS). These projections resulted from downscaling (to a 1km2 national grid) and quantile-mapping bias-correction of the Essential Climate Variables Global Circulation Model (ECV_GCM) ensemble mean from the CDS using a moderate Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Projections were evaluated with limited local station data and applied to generate future ecosystem indicators (Holdridge Life Zones, HLZs). We show significantly increasing temperatures of 2.6°C with a spatial variability of ± 0.4°C for Costa Rica until 2040 with local differences (higher temperatures projected for the southern Costa Rican Caribbean). The future mean annual precipitation showed slightly wetter conditions (120 ± 43 mm/year) and most prominently in the Costa Rican Caribbean and south Pacific, but no significant drying in the north of Costa Rica by 2040. The bias-corrected climate data were aggregated to decadal and 30-year average (1971–2040) life zone ecosystem indicators that could potentially show ecosystem shifts. Changes in the life zones are most likely due to warmer temperatures and to a lesser extent caused by projected wetter conditions. Shifts are more likely to occur at higher elevations with a potential loss of the sub-tropical rainforest ecosystem. The projections support diminishing tropical dry forests and slightly increasing tropical rain and wet forests in the biological corridors of the driest and wettest regions, respectively. A countrywide spatial uniformity of dominating tropical moist forests (increase from 24% to 49%) at the expense of other HLZs was projected by 2040.

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Downscaled Climate Change Projections for Wa District in the Savanna Zone of Ghana

Journal of Disaster Research ◽

10.20965/jdr.2014.p0422 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 422-431 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Emmanuel Tachie-Obeng ◽

◽

Bruce Hewitson ◽

Edwin Akonno Gyasi ◽

Mark Kofi Abekoe ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Local Level ◽

Control Period ◽

Dry Season ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Wet Season ◽

Annual Variations ◽

Near Future ◽

Savanna Zone

The possibility of future climate change in Ghana has received much attention due to repeated droughts and floods over the last decades. The savanna zone which is described as the food basket of Ghana is highly susceptible to climate change impact. Scenarios from 20-year time slices of the near future – 2046-2065 – and the far future – 2081-2100 – climate change meant to help guide policy remain a challenge. Empirical downscaling performed at the local-scale of Wa District in the savanna zone of Ghana under the IPCC A2 SRES emissions scenario showed evidence of probable climate change with mean annual temperatures expected to increase over an estimated range of 1.5°C to 2.3°C in the near future, with number of cool nights becoming less frequent, especially during the Harmattan1 period. The dry season is expected to be warmer than the wet season, with high inter-annual variations projected in both maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures. Given an average of 1 day of Tmax > 40°C per month in the control period of 1961-2000, the number of hot days is expected to increase to 12 by 2046-2065. An increase in total rainfall is projected with possible shifts in distribution toward the end of the year, with a slight increase in rainfall during the dry season and an increase of rainfall at the onset and toward the end of the wet season. However, a decrease in June rainfall is projected in the wet season. The objective of this paper is to improve the understanding of future climate as a guide to local level medium-term development plans of effective adaptation options for Wa district in the savanna zone of Ghana.

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A probabilistic view on recent and near future climate change in Sweden

Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography ◽

10.1034/j.1600-0870.2003.00013.x ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 55 (2) ◽

pp. 113-125 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

JOUNI RAISANEN ◽

HANS ALEXANDERSSON

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Near Future

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Temperature, but not pH, compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios

Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.2008.1935 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 276 (1663) ◽

pp. 1883-1888 ◽

Cited By ~ 181

Author(s):

Maria Byrne ◽

Melanie Ho ◽

Paulina Selvakumaraswamy ◽

Hong D. Nguyen ◽

Symon A. Dworjanyn ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Urchin ◽

Ocean Warming ◽

Future Climate ◽

Interactive Effects ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Marine Biota ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Eastern Australia ◽

Near Future

Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20–26°C, pH 7.6–8.2) were tested in all combinations for the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, with 20°C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4°C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6°C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6°C. At 26°C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean.

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