Downscaled Climate Change Projections for Wa District in the Savanna Zone of Ghana

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 422-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Tachie-Obeng ◽  
◽  
Bruce Hewitson ◽  
Edwin Akonno Gyasi ◽  
Mark Kofi Abekoe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Savanna Zone

The possibility of future climate change in Ghana has received much attention due to repeated droughts and floods over the last decades. The savanna zone which is described as the food basket of Ghana is highly susceptible to climate change impact. Scenarios from 20-year time slices of the near future – 2046-2065 – and the far future – 2081-2100 – climate change meant to help guide policy remain a challenge. Empirical downscaling performed at the local-scale of Wa District in the savanna zone of Ghana under the IPCC A2 SRES emissions scenario showed evidence of probable climate change with mean annual temperatures expected to increase over an estimated range of 1.5°C to 2.3°C in the near future, with number of cool nights becoming less frequent, especially during the Harmattan1 period. The dry season is expected to be warmer than the wet season, with high inter-annual variations projected in both maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures. Given an average of 1 day of Tmax > 40°C per month in the control period of 1961-2000, the number of hot days is expected to increase to 12 by 2046-2065. An increase in total rainfall is projected with possible shifts in distribution toward the end of the year, with a slight increase in rainfall during the dry season and an increase of rainfall at the onset and toward the end of the wet season. However, a decrease in June rainfall is projected in the wet season. The objective of this paper is to improve the understanding of future climate as a guide to local level medium-term development plans of effective adaptation options for Wa district in the savanna zone of Ghana.

Recent and near future climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deniz Bozkurt ◽  
David H. Bromwich ◽  
Roberto Rondanelli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Domain Configuration ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Near Future

<p>This study assesses the recent (1990-2015) and near future (2020-2045) climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula. For the recent period, we make the use of available observations, ECMWF’s ERA5 and its predecessor ERA-Interim, as well as regional climate model simulations. Given the different climate characteristics at each side of the mountain barrier, we principally assess the results considering the windward and leeward sides. We use hindcast simulations performed with Polar-WRF over the Antarctic Peninsula on a nested domain configuration at 45 km (PWRF-45) and 15 km (PWRF-15) spatial resolutions for the period 1990-2015. In addition, we include hindcast simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica domain (~ 50 km) for further comparisons. For the near future climate change evaluation, we principally use historical simulations and climate change projections (until 2050s, RCP85) performed with PWRF (forced with NCAR-CESM1) on the same domain configuration of the hindcast simulations. Recent observed trends show contrasts between summer and autumn. Annual warming (cooling) trend is notable on the windward (leeward) coasts of the peninsula. Unlike the reanalysis, numerical simulations indicate a clear pattern of windward warming and leeward cooling at annual time-scale. These temperature changes are accompanied by a decreasing and increasing trend in sea ice on the windward and leeward coasts, respectively. An increasing trend of precipitation is notable on the central and northern peninsula. High resolution climate change projections (PWRF-15, RCP85) indicate that the recent warming trend on the windward coasts tends to continue in the near future (2020-2045) and the projections exhibit an increase in temperature by ~ 1.5°C and 0.5°C on the windward and leeward coasts, respectively. In the same period, the projections show an increase in precipitation over the peninsula (5% to 10%). The more notable warming projected on the windward side causes more increases in surface melting (~ +20% to +80%) and more sea ice loss (-4% to -20%) on this side. Results show that the windward coasts of central and northern Antarctic Peninsula can be considered as "hotspots" with notable increases in temperature, surface melting and sea ice loss.</p>

scholarly journals Future Climate Change Renders Unsuitable Conditions for Paramo Ecosystems in Colombia

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 8373
Author(s):  
Matilda Cresso ◽  
Nicola Clerici ◽  
Adriana Sanchez ◽  
Fernando Jaramillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future

Paramo ecosystems are tropical alpine grasslands, located above 3000 m.a.s.l. in the Andean mountain range. Their unique vegetation and soil characteristics, in combination with low temperature and abundant precipitation, create the most advantageous conditions for regulating and storing surface and groundwater. However, increasing temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation due to greenhouse-gas-emission climate change are threatening these fragile environments. In this study, we used regional observations and downscaled data for precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature during the reference period 1960–1990 and simulations for the future period 2041–2060 to study the present and future extents of paramo ecosystems in the Chingaza National Park (CNP), nearby Colombia’s capital city, Bogotá. The historical data were used for establishing upper and lower precipitation and temperature boundaries to determine the locations where paramo ecosystems currently thrive. Our results found that increasing mean monthly temperatures and changing precipitation will render 39 to 52% of the current paramo extent in CNP unsuitable for these ecosystems during the dry season, and 13 to 34% during the wet season. The greatest loss of paramo area will occur during the dry season and for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5, when both temperature and precipitation boundaries are more prone to be exceeded. Although our initial estimates show the future impact on paramos and the water security of Bogotá due to climate change, complex internal and external interactions in paramo ecosystems make it essential to study other influencing climatic parameters (e.g., soil, topography, wind, etc.) apart from temperature and precipitation.

Projected climate change impacts on tropical life zones in Costa Rica

2021 ◽  
pp. 030913332110470
Author(s):  
Christian Birkel ◽  
Joni Dehaspe ◽  
Andrés Chavarría-Palma ◽  
Nelson Venegas-Cordero ◽  
Rene Capell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Costa Rican ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Biological Corridors ◽  
Ecosystem Indicators ◽  
Near Future

Efforts to protect tropical ecosystems aim at implementing biological corridors across the national territory of Costa Rica. However, potential near-future climate change challenges the effectiveness of such conservation measures. For this purpose, we developed near-future climate change scenarios at high spatial resolution using open-access global data from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS). These projections resulted from downscaling (to a 1km2 national grid) and quantile-mapping bias-correction of the Essential Climate Variables Global Circulation Model (ECV_GCM) ensemble mean from the CDS using a moderate Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Projections were evaluated with limited local station data and applied to generate future ecosystem indicators (Holdridge Life Zones, HLZs). We show significantly increasing temperatures of 2.6°C with a spatial variability of ± 0.4°C for Costa Rica until 2040 with local differences (higher temperatures projected for the southern Costa Rican Caribbean). The future mean annual precipitation showed slightly wetter conditions (120 ± 43 mm/year) and most prominently in the Costa Rican Caribbean and south Pacific, but no significant drying in the north of Costa Rica by 2040. The bias-corrected climate data were aggregated to decadal and 30-year average (1971–2040) life zone ecosystem indicators that could potentially show ecosystem shifts. Changes in the life zones are most likely due to warmer temperatures and to a lesser extent caused by projected wetter conditions. Shifts are more likely to occur at higher elevations with a potential loss of the sub-tropical rainforest ecosystem. The projections support diminishing tropical dry forests and slightly increasing tropical rain and wet forests in the biological corridors of the driest and wettest regions, respectively. A countrywide spatial uniformity of dominating tropical moist forests (increase from 24% to 49%) at the expense of other HLZs was projected by 2040.

scholarly journals Temperature, but not pH, compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios

2009 ◽  
Vol 276 (1663) ◽  
pp. 1883-1888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Byrne ◽  
Melanie Ho ◽  
Paulina Selvakumaraswamy ◽  
Hong D. Nguyen ◽  
Symon A. Dworjanyn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Urchin ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Marine Biota ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Near Future

Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20–26°C, pH 7.6–8.2) were tested in all combinations for the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, with 20°C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4°C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6°C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6°C. At 26°C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean.

scholarly journals Can the Iberian Floristic Diversity Withstand Near-Future Climate Change?

2014 ◽  
Vol 04 (17) ◽  
pp. 1089-1101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marshall J. Heap ◽  
Alastair Culham ◽  
Jonathan Lenoir ◽  
Rosario G. Gavilán
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Floristic Diversity ◽  
Near Future

scholarly journals Simulating Wheat Production Potential Under Near-future Climate Change in Arid Regions of Northeast Iran

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Farhad Saberali ◽  
Zahra Shirmohammadi-Aliakbarkhani ◽  
Hossein Nastari Nasrabadi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Growth Period ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Northeast Iran

Abstract Water scarcity is the key challenge in arid regions, which exacerbates under climate change (CC) and must be considered to assess the impacts of CC on cropping systems. A climate-crop modelling approach was employed by using the CSM-CERES-Wheat model in some arid regions of northeast Iran to project the effects of CC on irrigated wheat production. Current climate data for 1990-2019 and climate projections of three climate models for 2021–2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were used to run the crop model. Two irrigation scenarios with different irrigation efficiencies were also simulated to investigate the impacts of water scarcity associated with changing climate and irrigation management on wheat productivity. Results indicated that mean temperature is projected to increase at the rates of 1.74–2.73 °C during the reproductive growth period of winter wheat over the study areas. The precipitation projections also indicated that the precipitation rates would decrease over most of the wheat-growing period. The length of the vegetative growth period will extend in some regions and shorten in others under the near future climate. However, the grain filling duration will reduce by about 2–4 days across all regions. The mean seasonal PET is expected to decrease by about 11 mm from 2021 to 2050 over the study areas. A mean overall reduction in winter wheat yield due to future climate conditions would be about 12.3 % across the study areas. However, an increase of 15-30% in the irrigation efficiency will be able to offset yield reductions associated with limited water supply under future climate scenarios. The results suggest that CC will exacerbate limited irrigation water availability, so implementing high-efficiency irrigation systems should be a priority to adapt to climate change in an arid cropping system.

Analyzing Land Use Impacts on Streamflow Response in a Tropical Watershed: A Hydrometric and Geochemical Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Mathura ◽  
Kegan Farrick
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Critical Zone ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Forested Catchment ◽  
Streamflow Response ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Geochemical Approach

<p>Climate change and unsustainable land use practices such as quarrying have the potential to negatively impact the hydrology and water resource availability in catchments. Throughout the Caribbean, hillside quarrying has become a common practice. While these activities remove large sections of the critical zone, very little work has been done on how hillside quarrying impacts storm response and catchment water storage.  The study is particularly important given the expected changes to rainfall patterns in the Caribbean under future climate change. We hypothesised that the removal of the critical zone during quarrying will increase the magnitude of streamflow response to storm events due to its close proximity to the river, while also reducing the overall storage of the watershed. This study utilized a hydrometric and geochemical approach with direct measurements of rainfall and streamflow, and bi-weekly water sample collections for geochemistry and <sup>18</sup>O and <sup>2</sup>H stable isotopes between the 3.6 km<sup>2</sup> Acono (forested) and the adjacent 3.6 km<sup>2</sup> Don Juan (quarried) watersheds, located in Trinidad and Tobago. A total of 1207 mm of rainfall occurred, with 87.3% falling from August to November (wet season) and 12.7% from December to March (dry season). The δ<sup> 18</sup>O in rainfall ranged from -7.7 to 0.3 ‰ across both seasons with an average δ<sup>18</sup>O of -3.5±1.8‰ during the wet season and 0.1±0.5‰ in the dry season. During the dry season the mean δ<sup> 18</sup>O of stream water showed a difference between the forested (-2.8±0.3‰) and quarried (-3.1±0.3‰) catchments whereas there was little differences in δ<sup>18</sup>O in the forested catchment (-3.3±0.3 ‰) and quarried catchment–(-3.2±0.27‰) in the wet season. Our stream δ<sup>18</sup>O dry season results suggests that different sources of water or anthropogenic influences such as water from settling ponds in the quarry could have impacted the δ<sup>18</sup>O of the quarried stream as we expected the forested catchment to be more stable. Sample collection at these sites is ongoing and additional parameters such as soil water isotopes and rainfall, soil and stream ion chemistry are expected to improve our understanding of the translation from rainfall to streamflow. This research will allow us to gain a better insight of the current hydrological processes within this catchment and aid in the long term adaptive planning for factors such as climate change and further land use change.</p><p> </p>

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