scholarly journals Fiscal Stability of High-Debt Nations under Volatile Economic Conditions

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Budget Constraint ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Implicit Assumption ◽  
Ergodic Distribution ◽  
Intertemporal Budget Constraint ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government

Abstract Using a recursive empirical model of the real interest rate, GDP growth and the primary government deficit in the United States, I solve for the ergodic distribution of the debt/GDP ratio. If such a distribution exists, the government is satisfying its intertemporal budget constraint. One key finding is that historical fiscal policy would bring the current high-debt ratio back to its normal level of 0.35 over the coming decade. Forecasts of continuing increases in the ratio over the decade make the implicit assumption that fiscal policy has shifted dramatically. In the variant of the model that matches the forecast, the government would not satisfy its intertemporal budget constraint if the policy was permanent. The willingness of investors to hold US government debt implies a belief that the high-deficit policy is transitory.

scholarly journals Why Do States Intervene in the Elections of Others? The Role of Incumbent–Opposition Divisions

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Bubeck ◽  
Kai Jäger ◽  
Nikolay Marinov ◽  
Federico Nanni
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Original Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Polarization Measurement ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Democratic Process ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Government

Abstract Why do states intervene in elections abroad? This article argues that outsiders intervene when the main domestic contenders for office adopt policy positions that differ from the point of view of the outside power. It refers to the split between the government's and opposition's positions as policy polarization. Polarization between domestic political forces, rather than the degree of unfriendliness of the government in office, attracts two types of interventions: process (for or against democracy) and candidate (for or against the government) interventions. The study uses a novel, original data set to track local contenders’ policy positions. It shows that the new policy polarization measurement outperforms a number of available alternatives when it comes to explaining process and candidate interventions. The authors use this measurement to explain the behavior of the United States as an intervener in elections from 1945 to 2012. The United States is more likely to support the opposition, and the democratic process abroad, if a pro-US opposition is facing an anti-US government. It is more likely to support the government, and undermine the democratic process abroad, if a pro-US government is facing an anti-US opposition. The article also presents the results for all interveners, confirming the results from the US case.

Informal norms trump formal constraints: the evolution of fiscal policy institutions in the United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 211-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
PETER T. CALCAGNO ◽  
EDWARD J. LÓPEZ
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Institutional Evolution ◽  
Informal Rules ◽  
The Government ◽  
Elected Office ◽  
Formal Constraints

AbstractTwo shifts of informal rules occurred in the decades around the turn of the 20th century that continue to shape U.S. fiscal policy outcomes. Spending norms in the electorate shifted to expand the scope of the government budget to promote economic security and macroeconomic stability. Simultaneously, norms for elected office shifted to careerism. Both norms were later codified into formal rules as legislation creating entitlement programs, macroeconomic responsibility, and organizational changes to the fiscal policy process. This institutional evolution increased demand for federal expenditures while creating budgetary commons, thus imparting strong motivations to spend through deficit finance in normal times. Despite the last four decades of legislative attempts to constrain spending relative to taxes, the informal norms have trumped the formal constraints. While the empirical literature on deficits has examined the constraining effects of informal rules, this paper offers a novel treatment of shifting norms as having expansionary effects on deficits.

Fiscal Policy and Government Spending

2010 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. F61-F66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
The Third ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

In June the Coalition Government produced a budget that aimed to reduce the government deficit quickly. The plan was based mainly on cuts in current expenditure and reductions in transfers to individuals. There are four possible reasons for reducing the deficit, and all have been used to justify the policy. The first reason might be that the cost of borrowing is currently too high, and the second could be that if deficits persist the markets could lose confidence and the cost of borrowing would rise. The third reason might be that we have to reduce the debt stock in order that we prepare for the next crisis, whilst the fourth, and perhaps most persuasive in the long run, is that it is unfair to borrow so much and therefore reduce the consumption of future generations. If either of the first two had merit there would be a case for swift consolidation, whilst if the third or fourth predominate, we should not be in any rush to act until output is nearer full capacity.

scholarly journals Is Real Depreciation or More Government Deficit Expansionary? The Case of Slovenia

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Labor Cost ◽  
Aggregate Output ◽  
The Real ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government

AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of the real exchange rate, the government deficit and other relevant variables on aggregate output in Slovenia. Few of the previous studies have applied the AD/AS model to examine the impacts of major macroeconomic variables on aggregate output. This paper makes contributions to the literature by applying a rigorous model to examine how real GDP is affected by the real exchange rate, fiscal policy and other related variables. The exponential GARCH model is applied in empirical work. The paper finds that real depreciation of the Euro may affect Slovenia’s aggregate output positively or negatively and that more central government deficit as a percent of GDP does not affect aggregate output. In addition, Slovenia’s aggregate output is positively associated with the real stock price, the real oil price and real total labor cost or wage and is negatively influenced by the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. Recent real depreciation of the Euro would help Slovenia’s aggregate output whereas expansionary fiscal policy would not be effective in stimulating the economy.

scholarly journals Do US Government Tax Revenues and Expenditures Respond to Debt Levels and Economic Conditions Asymmetrically over the Business Cycle?

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 8
Author(s):  
Steven P Cassou ◽  
Hedieh Shadmani
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Switching Regression ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Debt Levels

This paper empirically investigates whether there are asymmetries in the responses of US government tax revenue and expenditure to debt levels and economic conditions over the business cycle. State of the art regime switching regression models, including Threshold Regression and Markov Switching, are investigated. Both sides of the government budget show asymmetries, but the asymmetries for tax revenue show greater statistical significance. The results show that both tax revenue and expenditure respond to high debt levels, with the asymmetry in this response showing that fiscal authorities take weaker action in response to debt during poor economic times. In addition, the asymmetric response to economic conditions for both sides of the budget shows that stronger countercyclical policy is taken during poor economic times.

United States Fiscal Policy for Social Workers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen M. Staller
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Social Workers ◽  
Structural Racism ◽  
Federal Revenue ◽  
Deficit Financing ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Function ◽  
Role Of The Government

U.S. fiscal policy is of interest to social workers as it concerns issues including structural racism, economic justice, and income inequality. U.S. fiscal policy refers to the role of the government in taxing and spending, the budget appropriations process, and public budgets (including federal and state revenue and spending). Federal revenue includes payroll and income taxes (personal and corporate). Federal outlays include discretionary and mandatory entitlement spending. There are a number of ongoing contentious debates about U.S. fiscal policy, including those involving the size and function of government, deficit financing and borrowing, inequality, and the redistribution of wealth in tax policies.

Fiscal Policy and Public Debt

2020 ◽  
pp. 417-488
Author(s):  
Christopher Tsoukis
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Budget Constraint ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Fiscal Solvency ◽  
The Government

This chapter looks at fiscal policy, broadly interpreted to include its implications on deficits, debt, and fiscal solvency. It is informally divided in two parts, starting from the latter set of issues. After introducing the budget deficit, debt and the government budget constraint, and related issues, it proceeds to analyse fiscal solvency, deriving formal conditions and discussing extensively indicators and required policy rules. The role of growth in ensuring fiscal solvency is put in sharp relief. Additionally, the ‘dilemma of austerity’ is critically discussed, i.e. whether ‘fiscal consolidations’ can in fact damage public finances by being recessionary. We then turn to the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity: A ‘toolkit’ of static fiscal multipliers is discussed, as is the intertemporal approach to fiscal policy (including Ricardian Equivalence), complemented by empirical evidence.

Parties and the Common Good

1939 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mortimer Adler
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Common Good ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Totalitarian Regime ◽  
The People ◽  
Geographical Separation ◽  
Production And Distribution ◽  
The Government

This paper has a twofold intention.The first is to discuss the problem of political parties, — their justification and status, — in a society which requires political democracy as the set of political institutions appropriate for the government of men living under modern social and economic conditions. (By these modern conditions I mean such things as the economic forms of production and distribution in the industrial era; the organization of labor in relation to economic enterprise; the intensity and extensity of communication among men living in geographical separation and, consequently, the physical enlargement of the civic association; the approximation to universal education; the spread of literacy, etc.) There are two points to be noted here:(1) That modern society is or tends toward a democracy in its physical and economic conditions, whether in a given instance its political forms are outwardly democratic, as in France, England and the United States, or anti-democratic, as in Italy, Germany and Russia.(a) Not only does Russia publicize its claim to being democratic and make constitutional efforts in that direction which are, of course, at once vitiated by the persistence of its totalitarian regime; but even Germany and Italy give an appearance of democracy, — though they abominate the thought and word, — an appearance which is a reverse and distorted image. Thus, by the pressure of propaganda and the exercise of brutal force, the rulers of Germany and Italy try to make it appear that they have a mandate from the people for their policies.

The Regulation of Alcohol and other Drugs in a Colonial Context: United States Policy towards the Philippines, C. 1898–1910

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 539-571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Tyrrell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Departure Point ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
East Asia Region ◽  
Alcohol And Other Drugs ◽  
The Military

The article compares attitudes towards and laws regulating the use of alcohol and opium in the United States (US) colonial possession of the Philippines. Forces within the United States and missionary groups in the field in the Philippines fought to have the supply of alcohol to American troops restricted by abolition of the military canteen system, and to eliminate use of alcohol among the indigenous population. To achieve these aims, they developed highly skilled networks of political lobbying led by Wilbur Craft's International Reform Bureau. Temperance, church and missionary groups differed among themselves over the relative seriousness of the two drugs’ impact in the Philippines, but skillfully adapted their tactics in the light of experience in the colony to focus on opium. They developed a tacit coalition with the US government, using the Philippines opium policy to distinguish the United States as a morally superior colonial ruler. By lobbying the government to oppose opium use in the East Asia region, they served to promote an American regional hegemony, and provided an important departure point for modern US drug poalicies.

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