MODELLING THE PREDICTION OF DENGUE OUTBREAK USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

Dengue virus had become the dominant mosquito-borne disease in Malaysia. With no positive progress on the development of vaccine, other ways in dealing with the virus is to predict the next outbreak which is also the aim of this paper. This dengue model based on system dynamics approach gives valuable information to decision makers in determining the strategies for vector control. The array of factors involved such as temperature, rainfall and population density that significantly influence virus transmission, give opportunity for a system approach in providing answer to the complicated relationship which exist in dengue system. System dynamics dengue model is able to simulate reasonable and promising results, which can be used as basis for future researcher to model more accurate and detail dengue transmission control system.

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Global patterns of aegyptism without arbovirus

10.1101/2020.07.20.212209 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mark F. Olson ◽

José G. Juarez ◽

Moritz U. G. Kraemer ◽

Jane P. Messina ◽

Gabriel L. Hamer

Keyword(s):

Population Density ◽

Virus Transmission ◽

Mosquito Vector ◽

Environmental Suitability ◽

Dengue Transmission ◽

The World ◽

Increasing Risk ◽

Global Patterns ◽

Lower Population ◽

Autochthonous Transmission

ABSTRACTThe world’s most important mosquito vector of viruses, Aedes aegypti, is found around the world in tropical, subtropical and even some temperate locations. While climate change may limit populations of Ae. aegypti in some regions, increasing temperatures will likely expand its territory thus increasing risk of human exposure to arboviruses in places like Europe, Northern Australia and North America, among many others. Most studies of Ae. aegypti biology and virus transmission focus on locations with high endemicity or severe outbreaks of human amplified urban arboviruses, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses, but rarely on areas at the margins of endemicity. Our objective in this study is to explore global patterns in the environmental suitability for Ae. aegypti and dengue virus to reveal deviations in the probability of the vector and human disease occurring. We developed a map showing one end of the gradient being higher suitability of Ae. aegypti with low suitability of dengue and the other end of the spectrum being equal and higher environmental suitability for both Ae. aegypti and dengue. The regions of the world with Ae. aegypti environmental suitability and no endemic dengue transmission exhibits a phenomenon we term ‘aegyptism without arbovirus’. We then tested what environmental and socioeconomic variables influence this deviation map revealing a significant association with population density, suggesting that locations with lower population density were more likely to have a higher probability of aegyptism without arbovirus. Characterizing regions of the world with established populations of Ae. aegypti but little to no autochthonous transmission of human-amplified arboviruses is an important step in understanding and achieving aegyptism without arbovirus.

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A Two-Patch Mathematical Model for Temperature-Dependent Dengue Transmission Dynamics

Processes ◽

10.3390/pr8070781 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (7) ◽

pp. 781

Author(s):

Jung Kim ◽

Yongin Choi ◽

James Kim ◽

Sunmi Lee ◽

Chang Lee

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Vector Control ◽

Control Strategies ◽

Virus Transmission ◽

Transmission Dynamics ◽

Transmission Control ◽

Temperature Dependent ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Patch Model ◽

Dengue Transmission

Dengue fever has been a threat to public health not only in tropical regions but non-tropical regions due to recent climate change. Motivated by a recent dengue outbreak in Japan, we develop a two-patch model for dengue transmission associated with temperature-dependent parameters. The two patches represent a park area where mosquitoes prevail and a residential area where people live. Based on climate change scenarios, we investigate the dengue transmission dynamics between the patches. We employ an optimal control method to implement proper control measures in the two-patch model. We find that blockage between two patches for a short-term period is effective in a certain degree for the disease control, but to obtain a significant control effect of the disease, a long-term blockage should be implemented. Moreover, the control strategies such as vector control and transmission control are very effective, if they are implemented right before the summer outbreak. We also investigate the cost-effectiveness of control strategies such as vaccination, vector control and virus transmission control. We find that vector control and virus transmission control are more cost-effective than vaccination in case of Korea.

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