scholarly journals A Two-Patch Mathematical Model for Temperature-Dependent Dengue Transmission Dynamics

Processes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 781
Author(s):  
Jung Kim ◽  
Yongin Choi ◽  
James Kim ◽  
Sunmi Lee ◽  
Chang Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vector Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Transmission Control ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Patch Model ◽  
Dengue Transmission

Dengue fever has been a threat to public health not only in tropical regions but non-tropical regions due to recent climate change. Motivated by a recent dengue outbreak in Japan, we develop a two-patch model for dengue transmission associated with temperature-dependent parameters. The two patches represent a park area where mosquitoes prevail and a residential area where people live. Based on climate change scenarios, we investigate the dengue transmission dynamics between the patches. We employ an optimal control method to implement proper control measures in the two-patch model. We find that blockage between two patches for a short-term period is effective in a certain degree for the disease control, but to obtain a significant control effect of the disease, a long-term blockage should be implemented. Moreover, the control strategies such as vector control and transmission control are very effective, if they are implemented right before the summer outbreak. We also investigate the cost-effectiveness of control strategies such as vaccination, vector control and virus transmission control. We find that vector control and virus transmission control are more cost-effective than vaccination in case of Korea.

scholarly journals Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (14) ◽  
pp. 3091-3100 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. R. WILLIAMS ◽  
G. MINCHAM ◽  
H. FADDY ◽  
E. VIENNET ◽  
S. A. RITCHIE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Simple Relationship ◽  
Breeding Sites ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Dengue Epidemic

SUMMARYDengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046–2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

MODELLING THE PREDICTION OF DENGUE OUTBREAK USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

2016 ◽  
Vol 78 (6-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibnu Affan Jaafar ◽  
Norhaslinda Zainal Abidin ◽  
Jastini Mohd Jamil
Keyword(s):  
Control System ◽  
Population Density ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
System Approach ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Transmission Control ◽  
Dengue Outbreak ◽  
Future Researcher ◽  
Dengue Transmission

Dengue virus had become the dominant mosquito-borne disease in Malaysia.  With no positive progress on the development of vaccine, other ways in dealing with the virus is to predict the next outbreak which is also the aim of this paper. This dengue model based on system dynamics approach gives valuable information to decision makers in determining the strategies for vector control. The array of factors involved such as temperature, rainfall and population density that significantly influence virus transmission, give opportunity for a system approach in providing answer to the complicated relationship which exist in dengue system. System dynamics dengue model is able to simulate reasonable and promising results, which can be used as basis for future researcher to model more accurate and detail dengue transmission control system.

Suppression of Dengue Transmission by Application of Integrated Vector Control Strategies at Sero-Positive GIS-Based Foci

2008 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pattamaporn Kittayapong ◽  
Amaret Bhumiratana ◽  
Sutee Yoksan ◽  
Uruyakorn Chansang ◽  
Chitti Chansang
Keyword(s):  
Vector Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Integrated Vector Control

scholarly journals Potential effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics in Korea

PLoS ONE ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. e0199205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyojung Lee ◽  
Jung Eun Kim ◽  
Sunmi Lee ◽  
Chang Hyeong Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Dengue Transmission

scholarly journals Human movement, cooperation and the effectiveness of coordinated vector control strategies

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (133) ◽  
pp. 20170336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris M. Stone ◽  
Samantha R. Schwab ◽  
Dina M. Fonseca ◽  
Nina H. Fefferman
Keyword(s):  
Vector Control ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Vector Surveillance ◽  
Vector Borne Disease ◽  
Control Programmes ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
Host Movement

Vector-borne disease transmission is often typified by highly focal transmission and influenced by movement of hosts and vectors across different scales. The ecological and environmental conditions (including those created by humans through vector control programmes) that result in metapopulation dynamics remain poorly understood. The development of control strategies that would most effectively limit outbreaks given such dynamics is particularly urgent given the recent epidemics of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses. We developed a stochastic, spatial model of vector-borne disease transmission, allowing for movement of hosts between patches. Our model is applicable to arbovirus transmission by Aedes aegypti in urban settings and was parametrized to capture Zika virus transmission in particular. Using simulations, we investigated the extent to which two aspects of vector control strategies are affected by human commuting patterns: the extent of coordination and cooperation between neighbouring communities. We find that transmission intensity is highest at intermediate levels of host movement. The extent to which coordination of control activities among neighbouring patches decreases the prevalence of infection is affected by both how frequently humans commute and the proportion of neighbouring patches that commits to vector surveillance and control activities. At high levels of host movement, patches that do not contribute to vector control may act as sources of infection in the landscape, yet have comparable levels of prevalence as patches that do cooperate. This result suggests that real cooperation among neighbours will be critical to the development of effective pro-active strategies for vector-borne disease control in today's commuter-linked communities.

scholarly journals Modelling the effectiveness and risks of vaccination strategies to control classical swine fever epidemics

2008 ◽  
Vol 6 (39) ◽  
pp. 849-861 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jantien A. Backer ◽  
Thomas J. Hagenaars ◽  
Herman J.W. van Roermund ◽  
Mart C.M. de Jong
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Scale Effects ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Classical Swine Fever ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Infection Source

In a recent update of the Dutch contingency plan for controlling outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF), emergency vaccination is preferred to large-scale pre-emptive culling. This policy change raised two questions: can emergency vaccination be as effective as pre-emptive culling, and what are the implications for showing freedom of infection? Here, we integrate quantitative information available on CSF virus transmission and vaccination effects into a stochastic mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics at the level of animals, farms and livestock areas. This multilevel approach connects individual-level interventions to large-scale effects. Using this model, we compare the performance of five different control strategies applied to hypothetical CSF epidemics in The Netherlands and, for each of these strategies, we study the properties of three different screening scenarios to show freedom of infection. We find that vaccination in a ring of 2 km radius around a detected infection source is as effective as ring culling in a 1 km radius. Feasible screening scenarios, adapted to the use of emergency vaccination, can reduce the enhanced risks of (initially) undetected farm outbreaks by targeting vaccinated farms. Altogether, our results suggest that emergency vaccination against CSF can be equally effective and safe as pre-emptive culling.

scholarly journals Human Antibody Response toAedes albopictusSalivary Proteins: A Potential Biomarker to Evaluate the Efficacy of Vector Control in an Area of Chikungunya and Dengue Virus Transmission

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Souleymane Doucoure ◽  
François Mouchet ◽  
Sylvie Cornelie ◽  
Papa Makhtar Drame ◽  
Eric D’Ortenzio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vector Control ◽  
Population Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Salivary Proteins ◽  
Human Antibody ◽  
Vector Population ◽  
Potential Biomarker ◽  
Species Specific

Aedesborne viruses represent public health problems in southern countries and threat to emerge in the developed world. Their control is currently based on vector population control. Much effort is being devoted to develop new tools to control such arbovirus. Recent findings suggest that the evaluation of human antibody (Ab) response to arthropod salivary proteins is relevant to measuring the level of human exposure to mosquito bites. Using an immunoepidemiological approach, the present study aimed to assess the usefulness of the salivary biomarker for measuring the efficacy ofAe. albopictuscontrol strategies in La Reunion urban area. The antisaliva Ab response of adult humans exposed toAe. albopictuswas evaluatedbefore and after vector control measures. Our results showed a significant correlation between antisaliva Ab response and the level of exposure to vectors bites. The decrease ofAe.albopictusdensity has been detected by this biomarker two weeks after the implementation of control measures, suggesting its potential usefulness for evaluating control strategies in a short time period. The identification of species specific salivary proteins/peptides should improve the use of this biomarker.

scholarly journals A Framework for Weather-Driven Dengue Virus Transmission Dynamics in Different Brazilian Regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (18) ◽  
pp. 9493
Author(s):  
Leon Diniz Alves ◽  
Raquel Martins Lana ◽  
Flávio Codeço Coelho
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Transmission ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Egg Hatching ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Environment Variables

This study investigated a model to assess the role of climate fluctuations on dengue (DENV) dynamics from 2010 to 2019 in four Brazilian municipalities. The proposed transmission model was based on a preexisting SEI-SIR model, but also incorporates the vector vertical transmission and the vector’s egg compartment, thus allowing rainfall to be introduced to modulate egg-hatching. Temperature and rainfall satellite data throughout the decade were used as climatic model inputs. A sensitivity analysis was performed to understand the role of each parameter. The model-simulated scenario was compared to the observed dengue incidence and the findings indicate that the model was able to capture the observed seasonal dengue incidence pattern with good accuracy until 2016, although higher deviations were observed from 2016 to 2019. The results further demonstrate that vertical transmission fluctuations can affect attack transmission rates and patterns, suggesting the need to investigate the contribution of vertical transmission to dengue transmission dynamics in future assessments. The improved understanding of the relationship between different environment variables and dengue transmission achieved by the proposed model can contribute to public health policies regarding mosquito-borne diseases.

scholarly journals The impact of early public health interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and evolution

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Duchene ◽  
Leo Featherstone ◽  
Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio ◽  
Edward C. Holmes ◽  
Jon Bohlin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Chain Dynamics ◽  
Transmission Chain ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractMany countries have attempted to control COVID-19 through the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, it remains unclear how different control strategies have impacted SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission dynamics at the local level. Using complete SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we inferred the relative frequencies of virus importation and exportation, as well as virus transmission chain dynamics in Nordic countries - Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden - during the first months of the pandemic. Our analyses revealed that Sweden experienced more numerous transmission chains, which tended to have more cases, and were of longer duration, a set of features that increased with time. Together with Denmark, Sweden was also a net exporter of SARS-CoV-2. Hence, Sweden effectively constituted an epidemiological and evolutionary ‘refugia’ that enabled the virus to maintain active transmission and spread to other geographic localities. This analysis highlights the utility of genomic surveillance where active transmission chain monitoring is a key metric.

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