scholarly journals Selected agroclimatical characteristics of Žabčice region for period 1991–2005

2006 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 81-90
Author(s):  
Jan Svoboda ◽  
Jan Brotan
Keyword(s):  
Absolute Maximum ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Measured Temperature ◽  
Absolute Minimum ◽  
Monthly Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Normal Period ◽  
The Mean

Presented work is continuation of the first comprehensive agroclimatological study of Žabcice area (Rožnovský, Svoboda, 1995) and focuses on the time period 1991 to 2005. The work contains some of the agroclimatological data, which are used by number of experts at our university working within area of the MZLU Agricultural Farm in Žabčice especially on project no. J08/984321001. Results are based on data measured by the special agrometeorological station of Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology at MZLU in Brno that is situated within trial area “Obora“ (altitude: 179 m; latitude: N 49°01´; longitude: E 16°16´). Measurements at Žabčice station follow methodology of Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (Slabá, 1972; Fišák, 1994).Climatic diagram according Walter and Leith is usually based on normal period (Rožnovský, Svoboda, 1995) but it is possible to prepare it for shorter period (in this case 1991–2005) and make a comparison. If the ratio of the temperature and precipitation axis is 10:30 (which is the most suitable according our experience) it may be stated that:• During period 1961–1990 the curve of precipitation sums is under the curve of mean monthly temperature from the middle of July till beginning of October. This period is the period of drought for Žabčice.• For the period from 1991 to 2005 the curve of precipitation sums is under the curve of temperature from mid April to mid June (just a slightly, but it can explain spring droughts appearances) and at the begining of August till the end of the first decade of September. In comparison with the normal pe- riod 1961–1990 and the long term mean 1901–1950 for station Židlochovice the probability of possible drought has increased.• Mean annual temperature changed from 9.2 °C to 10.0 °C and precipitation changed from 480.0 mm to 483.0 mm however with different distribution as can be seen at the fig. 4.• The mean monthly temperature of the coldest month increased from – 5.4 °C to – 3.9 °C and lowest measured temperature within this period was – 22.3 °C in comparison with 1961–1990 when the value was – 29.0 °C.• Mean monthly temperature of the warmest month increased from 25.2 °C to 27.2 °C and absolute maximum increased from 36.6 °C to 38.47 °C.• Months with the mean minimum monthly temperature below 0.0 °C and months with absolute minimum below 0.0 °C have also changed. All measured data and calculated values are shown in tables and figures.

scholarly journals Projected Change in Temperature and Precipitation Over Africa from CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 455-475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansour Almazroui ◽  
Fahad Saeed ◽  
Sajjad Saeed ◽  
M. Nazrul Islam ◽  
Muhammad Ismail ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
African Continent ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract We analyze data of 27 global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the African continent during the twenty-first century. The temperature and precipitation changes are computed for two future time slices, 2030–2059 (near term) and 2070–2099 (long term), relative to the present climate (1981–2010), for the entire African continent and its eight subregions. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projected a continuous and significant increase in the mean annual temperature over all of Africa and its eight subregions during the twenty-first century. The mean annual temperature over Africa for the near (long)-term period is projected to increase by 1.2 °C (1.4 °C), 1.5 °C (2.3 °C), and 1.8 °C (4.4 °C) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for weak, moderate, and strong forcing, referenced as SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The future warming is not uniform over Africa and varies regionally. By the end of the twenty-first century, the largest rise in mean annual temperature (5.6 °C) is projected over the Sahara, while the smallest rise (3.5 °C) is over Central East Africa, under the strong forcing SSP5-8.5 scenario. The projected boreal winter and summer temperature patterns for the twenty-first century show spatial distributions similar to the annual patterns. Uncertainty associated with projected temperature over Africa and its eight subregions increases with time and reaches a maximum by the end of the twenty-first century. On the other hand, the precipitation projections over Africa during the twenty-first century show large spatial variability and seasonal dependency. The northern and southern parts of Africa show a reduction in precipitation, while the central parts of Africa show an increase, in future climates under the three reference scenarios. For the near (long)-term periods, the area-averaged precipitation over Africa is projected to increase by 6.2 (4.8)%, 6.8 (8.5)%, and 9.5 (15.2)% under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The median warming simulated by the CMIP6 model ensemble remains higher than the CMIP5 ensemble over most of Africa, reaching as high as 2.5 °C over some regions, while precipitation shows a mixed spatial pattern.

Reduction of Mononuclear Cytokine Production in Hemodialysis Patients Treated with Steam-Sterilized Low-Flux Polysulphone Membranes

1998 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 210-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Aucella ◽  
M. Vigilante ◽  
E. Grandone ◽  
D. Colaizzo ◽  
M. Margaglione ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Complement Activation ◽  
Mononuclear Cells ◽  
Cytokine Production ◽  
Hemodialysis Patients ◽  
Chronic Hemodialysis ◽  
Endotoxin Level ◽  
Cytokine Release ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Mean

An increased cytokine production, correlated with long term complications of uremic disease, has been described during hemodialysis. To identify possible differences in the cytokine release of differently sterilized membranes, we enrolled six uremic patients on chronic hemodialysis. The patients underwent dialysis with ETO-sterilized low-flux polysulphone membranes (F6, Fresenius AG) for at least three months (At), they were then switched to steam-sterilized polysulphone membranes (F6-HPS Fresenius AG) and further evaluations after one (B1) and two months (B2) were carried out. A final evaluation (A2) was made one month after switching back to F6 dialyzers. At each time period, samples were drawn to measure IL-1B released by cultured mononuclear cells (MN). Moreover, dialysate samples were collected to test endotoxin levels. C3a and C5a levels were assessed at 0, 5, 15 and 60 min from starting hemodialysis. Anti-ETO IgE levels were also assayed at A1, B1 and A2. The LAL test revealed a good quality dialysate. The mean pre-dialysis IL-1B levels were 215 pg/million cells at A1; falling to 49 at B1, and 54 at B2 (p≤0.01); there was then a sharp rebound at A2:284, p≤0.01. Post-dialysis levels followed the same pattern. No correlation between the dialysate endotoxin level and cytokine release was found. Complement activation did not change and in all the phases of the study no anti-ETO IgE was detected in any of the subjects. Our data suggest that the steam sterilized polysulphone membrane induces a lower cytokine release than the ETO sterilized membrane, although the mechanism by which it does so remains to be clarified.

scholarly journals Information Content of Seasonal Forecasts in a Changing Climate

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nir Y. Krakauer ◽  
Michael D. Grossberg ◽  
Irina Gladkova ◽  
Hannah Aizenman
Keyword(s):  
Information Gain ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Climate Prediction Center

We study the potential value to stakeholders of probabilistic long-term forecasts, as quantified by the mean information gain of the forecast compared to climatology. We use as a case study the USA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of 3-month temperature and precipitation anomalies made at 0.5-month lead time since 1995. Mean information gain was positive but low (about 2% and 0.5% of the maximum possible for temperature and precipitation forecasts, resp.) and has not increased over time. Information-based skill scores showed similar patterns to other, non-information-based, skill scores commonly used for evaluating seasonal forecasts but tended to be smaller, suggesting that information gain is a particularly stringent measure of forecast quality. We also present a new decomposition of forecast information gain into Confidence, Forecast Miscalibration, and Climatology Miscalibration components. Based on this decomposition, the CPC forecasts for temperature are on average underconfident while the precipitation forecasts are overconfident. We apply a probabilistic trend extrapolation method to provide an improved reference seasonal forecast, compared to the current CPC procedure which uses climatology from a recent 30-year period. We show that combining the CPC forecast with the probabilistic trend extrapolation more than doubles the mean information gain, providing one simple avenue for increasing forecast skill.

scholarly journals Climate variability, disasters and their impacts assessment in Manahari, rural municipality of Makwanpur, Nepal

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 201-210
Author(s):  
Ram Asheshwar Mandal ◽  
Bindu Subedi ◽  
Dhruba Lochan Adhikari ◽  
Ajay Bhakta Mathema
Keyword(s):  
Slope Failure ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Landslide Risk ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Rural Municipality ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Mean

Nepal is climatically very sensitive country because of long drought, heavy floods, landslides and soil erosion caused by changing pattern of rainfall and temperature. However, there are very limited studies related to these issues, thus this research was objectively carried out to analyze temperature and precipitation trend of study area, examine the climate pattern and assess the impacts of climate change hazards on different sectors. Ward number 7 and 8 Manahari Rural Municipality of Makwanpur district was selected as the study site. Total 40 households survey, 15 Key informants interview and two focus group discussions were conducted involving the affected local to collect the primary data. Moreover, secondary data specifically monthly maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall for thirty one years between 1985–2015 were gathered from nearest meteorological station i.e. NFI Hetauda Station (Station No. 906) and Manahari Station (Station No. 920). The drought trend was calculated using the ratio of Precipitation<2Temperatures. The theoretical distribution i.e. Gumbel, Log-Pearson and Log Normal models were applied to predict the flood peaks and maximum rainfalls. The mean annual temperature was increasing at the rate of 0.0226°C per year. The highest mean annual temperature was 24.1°C in 2015. It was found that, the number of days exceeding the maximum average temperature in the period of 31 years. However, the trend of total annual precipitation in Hetauda was decreasing at the rate of 5.6607 mm per year. The highest rainfall was recorded about 3323.1 mm in year 2002 and it was the least only 1626.2 mm in 2012. The January, February, March, November and December were the driest months. Flood frequency using Log Pearson showed the highest flood in 1000 years return period. The mean rank was the highest of drought having value 5 while it was the lowest only 1.4 of flood. The slope failure at the edges of the rural roads also causes landslides which also fills the agriculture land. The locals responded that the drainage systems were poor and there were no protection structure and/or biological component to reduce landslide risk during construction periods. Major five disasters were recorded in Manahari during from March to June whereas, wildlife attack throughout the year and so on.

THE STUDY OF AIR TEMPERATURE IN THE LAST DECADE IN THE BUCHAREST METROPOLITAN AREA

2021 ◽  
Vol 07 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
CHICHIREZ CRISTINA-MIHAELA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Absolute Maximum ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Hot Season ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
Near Future

Multiple paleoclimatic studies indicate that the Earth has warmed significantly since the end of the 19th century. The mean temperature of the Earth's surface is rising unnaturally and frighteningly fast, having a large impact and threatening the very near future of human civilization. This paper presents an analysis of the variability of air temperature in the Bucharest metropolitan area in the decade 2011-2020, related to the 1901-2000 period in the context of the global warming. The research includes the study of the mean annual and monthly temperature, the absolute maximum and minimum temperature, the frequency of the thermal character in the cold season and in the hot season and the frequency of days with characteristic temperatures. The 2011-2020 decade was the hottest one since the beginning of meteorological measurements. Related to the 1901-2000- reference period, the air temperature increased by 1.6°C, from 11.1°C to 12.7°C, the mean of the 10 years. The year 2020 was the hottest year, marking the end of the hottest decade since the meteorological measurements were made, the mean annual temperature being 13.5°C, by 2.4°C higher than the mean of the 1901-2010 reference period.

What was the late Pliocene Mediterranean climate like; a preliminary quantification from vegetation

2000 ◽  
Vol 171 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout ◽  
Severine Fauquette ◽  
Pierre Quezel
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Climate ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Central Mediterranean ◽  
Late Pliocene ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Reconstruction of the composition and organisation of the late Pliocene vegetation in central Mediterranean and quantification of the climatic requirements of its main representatives allow temperature and precipitation estimates during the late Pliocene glacial/interglacial cycles, at ca 2.4 Ma. The late Pliocene climatic glacial and interglacial conditions are illustrated on a bioclimagram which correlates the mean annual temperature and precipitation criteria. Comparison between modern and late Pliocene vegetation indicates that late Pliocene interglacial climate was approximately 4 degrees C warmer, with more higher amount of precipitation than today, and that conditions similar to modern ones prevailed during late Pliocene glacials.

scholarly journals Time Series Analysis of Mean Monthly Temperature in the Far Western Ethiopia, Assosa District

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tigabu Hailu Kassa ◽  
Shewayiref Geremew Gebremichael
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Temperature Pattern ◽  
First Order ◽  
Monthly Temperature ◽  
The Mean ◽  
One Year ◽  
Western Ethiopia

Abstract BackgroundThis study investigated the mean monthly temperature pattern of the Assosa district, Western Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to analyze the mean monthly temperature patterns in the Assosa district for the period from January 2012 to December 2016 based on data from meteorological stations in the Assosa district.MethodsDescriptive statistics and univariate Box-Jenkins methodology to build the seasonal ARIMA model were used.ResultsThe results showed that the mean annual temperature of Assosa was 28.025 degree Celsius. The original series was found to be seasonally non-stationary, as indicated by the ACF plot of the series. After using first-order seasonal differencing, the series was found to be stationary. A time-series model for the Assosa station was adjusted, processed, diagnostically checked, and finally, an ARIMA (3.0.1) model is established and this model is used to forecast one-year mean monthly temperature values. ConclusionThe forecasted mean temperature values showed a similar pattern to previous recordings.

scholarly journals Evaluating WorldClim Version 1 (1961–1990) as the Baseline for Sustainable Use of Forest and Environmental Resources in a Changing Climate

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 3043 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurizio Marchi ◽  
Iztok Sinjur ◽  
Michele Bozzano ◽  
Marjana Westergren
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Structure ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Sustainable Use ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Measured Temperature ◽  
Environmental Predictors ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Geostatistical Methods ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

WorldClim version 1 is a high-resolution, global climate gridded dataset covering 1961–1990; a “normal” climate. It has been widely used for ecological studies thanks to its free availability and global coverage. This study aims to evaluate the quality of WorldClim data by quantifying any discrepancies by comparison with an independent dataset of measured temperature and precipitation records across Europe. BIO1 (mean annual temperature, MAT) and BIO12 (mean total annual precipitation, MAP) were used as proxies to evaluate the spatial accuracy of the WorldClim grids. While good representativeness was detected for MAT, the study demonstrated a bias with respect to MAP. The average difference between WorldClim predictions and climate observations was around +0.2 °C for MAT and −48.7 mm for MAP, with large variability. The regression analysis revealed a good correlation and adequate proportion of explained variance for MAT (adjusted R2 = 0.856) but results for MAP were poor, with just 64% of the variance explained (adjusted R2 = 0.642). Moreover no spatial structure was found across Europe, nor any statistical relationship with elevation, latitude, or longitude, the environmental predictors used to generate climate surfaces. A detectable spatial autocorrelation was only detectable for the two most thoroughly sampled countries (Germany and Sweden). Although further adjustments might be evaluated by means of geostatistical methods (i.e., kriging), the huge environmental variability of the European environment deeply stressed the WorldClim database. Overall, these results show the importance of an adequate spatial structure of meteorological stations as fundamental to improve the reliability of climate surfaces and derived products of the research (i.e., statistical models, future projections).

THE VARIABILITY OF AEROSOL OPTICAL THICKNESS IN MOUNTAINOUS AND FOOTHILL AREAS OF THE NORTH OSSETIA ACCORDING TO SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS

2021 ◽  
pp. 51-63
Author(s):  
Evgeniy S. Kamenetsky ◽  
Anatoliy A. Radionoff ◽  
Vasiliy Yu. Timchenko ◽  
Olga S. Panaetova
Keyword(s):  
Optical Thickness ◽  
Aerosol Optical Thickness ◽  
Measured Temperature ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Daily Series ◽  
Complex Landscape ◽  
North Ossetia

Atmospheric aerosol is one of the indicators of air quality that affects the environmental situation. The aerosol optical thickness (AOT) of the atmosphere is studied in the mountainous, foothill, and plain regions of Republic of North Ossetia-Alania (Russian Federation) based on satellite data EOS Terra, Aqua. Several geographical locations at different heights were selected for the analysis. Daily series of AOT, air temperature and precipitation data were obtained on period over 20 years for each point. The results of statistical analysis of long-term values of AOT, temperature and precipitation are shown. There is a statistically significant relationship between the averaged values, and there is also a dependence on the height of the location and the proximity of mountains. Long-term average dependencies provide a basis for predicting the AOT value based on the measured temperature at height of 2 m for territories located in a complex landscape at different altitudes.

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