scholarly journals A Comparison of Business Cycles Synchronization in the Euro Area and Some Potential Monetary Unions

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 1277-1285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanislav Kappel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
United States Of America ◽  
The United States ◽  
Monetary Unions ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
High Degree

Synchronization of business cycle is one of the main criteria for creation of a monetary union. With increasing synchronization of business cycle, a probability of occurrence of demand and supply shocks, which are asymmetric, decreases. The aim of this contribution is to evaluate synchronicity of business cycle in the euro area and some potential monetary unions. There are MERCOSUR (i.e. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela), NAFTA (Canada, Mexico and the United States of America). For this aim, correlation analysis and two indexes of cyclical components of GDP are used. The cyclical components of GDP are obtained due to the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The results indicate a high degree of business cycles synchronization among states of the euro area (especially in countries of so called core of the euro area) and states of NAFTA. In opposite, a lower degree of business cycles synchronization was reached among states of MERCOSUR. According to the criterion of business cycle synchronization, NAFTA is more appropriate candidate than MERCOSUR for creation monetary area.

scholarly journals How the Distribution of After-Tax Income Changed Over the 1990s Business Cycle: A Comparison of the United States, Great Britain, Germany and Japan

2008 ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Richard V. Burkhauser ◽  
Takashi Oshio ◽  
Ludmila Rovba
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Density Estimation ◽  
Kernel Density ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Right ◽  
Older Populations ◽  
Entire Distribution

Using kernel density estimation we find that over the 1990s business cycles in the United States and Great Britain the entire distribution of after-tax (disposable) income moved to the right while inequality declined. In contrast, Germany and Japan experienced less growth, a rise in inequality, and a decline in the middle mass of their distributions, that spread mostly to the right, much like in the United States over its 1980s business cycle. Inequality fell within the older populations of all four countries; inequality also fell within the younger populations of the United States and Great Britain, but it rose substantially in Germany and Japan.

scholarly journals Price Changes in the Euro Area and the United States: Some Facts from Individual Consumer Price Data

2006 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Dhyne ◽  
Luis J Álvarez ◽  
Hervé Le Bihan ◽  
Giovanni Veronese ◽  
Daniel Dias ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Average Frequency ◽  
The United States ◽  
Price Indices ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Price Data ◽  
Household Budget Surveys

Prices of goods and services do not adjust immediately in response to changing demand and supply conditions. This paper characterizes the average frequency and size of price changes in the euro area and its member countries, investigates the determinants of the probability of price changes, and compares the evidence for the euro area with available U.S. results. The facts documented in this paper are based on evidence from individual price data recorded at the store level in all euro area countries except Ireland and Greece: that is in datasets covering Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain, which together account for around 97 percent of euro area GDP. The data used are the monthly price records underlying the computation of national Consumer Price Indices and Harmonized Consumer Price Indices. These data cover a large number of products selected on the basis of extensive Household Budget Surveys.

The Overall Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 436-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn Bushway ◽  
Matthew Phillips ◽  
Philip J. Cook
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Statistical Association ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Using Data

Abstract This paper analyses the 13 business cycles since 1933 to provide evidence on the old question of whether recessions cause crime. Using data from the United States, we find that recessions are consistently associated with an uptick in burglary and robbery, and a reduction in theft of motor vehicles. There is no statistical association with homicide. These patterns are suggestive of the relative importance of the various channels by which economic conditions influence crime.

Actual interest rates versus hypothetical interest ratesresulting from the Taylor rulein the euro area and the United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 22-48
Author(s):  
Tomasz Grabia
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
United States Of America ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Gdp Gap ◽  
Reserve System

The aim of the article is to examine the degree of matching actual interest rates with hypothetical ones, calculated on the basis of original and modified (with greater GDP gap significance when setting interest rates) Taylor rule. The analysis was conducted for the two largest world economies by nominal GDP, i.e. the euro area and the United States of America for the period 2001—2017.Two hypotheses were tested in the article. Firstly, the actual interest rates of the Europe-an Central Bank are more strongly correlated with the rates resulting from the original Taylor rule. Secondly, the actual interest rates of the Federal Reserve System are more strongly correlated with the rates arising from the modified Taylor rule. On the basis of the conducted analysis, the first hypothesis was confirmed, while the second one was rejected.However, it should be noted that the results of the study could be different were it not for the economic crisis, macroeconomic destabilization and lack of the possibility of reducing interest rates related to zero lower bound. That particularly applies to the second hypothesis and the 2008—2017 sub-period.

scholarly journals An Evaluation of Selected Economic Areas according to Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-240
Author(s):  
Stanislav Kappel
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
The United States ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Supply And Demand Shocks

Abstract The Euro Area remains a well-known monetary union in the World. But the possibilities of creation of new monetary unions are discussed. It is spoken about NAFTA (Canada, Mexico and the United States) or MERCOSUR (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela). The aim of this paper is to assess the similarity of demand and supply shocks in the countries of NAFTA and MERCOSUR, and to compare it with the countries of the Euro Area. For these aims, correlation and structural vector autoregression methods are used. Methods are based on Blanchard and Quah (1989) and Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1993). We confirm the existence of core states and periphery states in the Euro Area with some exceptions. If we compare supply and demand shocks, we find more similarity in the case of supply shocks in the countries of the Euro Area. According to the results, the countries of NAFTA are more appropriate for the creation of monetary union than the countries of MERCOSUR. The countries of NAFTA achieve high correlation coefficients of supply and demand shocks (except Mexico for supply shocks).

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