Uncertainty Evaluation for Structural Damage Parameters Prediction Methodology
Structural component life estimated from damage tracking parameters in real-time are a subject of recent studies. The proposed project consists of determining parametric equations for the structural damage variables, metal temperature and stress, as a function of design performance parameters, exercising these equations through material property algorithms generated as a function of material characterization, and evaluating the uncertainty of the damage accumulated from a simulated military mission. Thermal and structural finite element results obtained during the component design phase were used as the dependent response for the stress and metal temperature equations. The independent variables used in the statistical linear regression analysis were mission performance parameters. A time function was implemented to account for the response time characteristic of the component metal temperature during transient conditions. The material property algorithm combined critical metal temperatures and stresses with probabilistic material capability generated from stochastic material characterization. Validation of the methodology was accomplished by the statistical analysis performed between predicted results and expected values from the design analysis. Uncertainty analysis established the confidence bound about the predicted result.