A Methodology for the Prediction of Pipeline Failure Frequency Due to External Interference

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Lyons ◽  
J. V. Haswell ◽  
P. Hopkins ◽  
R. Ellis ◽  
N. Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Damage Mechanism ◽  
External Interference ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Mechanics Model ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Pipeline Failure ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Operational Failure

The United Kingdom Onshore Pipeline Operators Association (UKOPA) is developing supplements to the UK pipeline codes BSI PD 8010 and IGE/TD/1. These supplements will provide a standardized approach for the application of quantified risk assessment to pipelines. UKOPA has evaluated and recommended a methodology: this paper covers the background to, and justification of, this methodology. The most relevant damage mechanism which results in pipeline failure is external interference. Interference produces a gouge, dent or a dent-gouge. This paper describes the fracture mechanics model used to predict the probability failure of pipelines containing dent and gouge damage and contains predictions of failure frequency obtained using the gas industry failure frequency prediction methodologies FFREQ and operational failure data from the UKOPA fault database. The failure model and prediction methodology are explained and typical results are presented and discussed.

Reduction Factors for Estimating the Probability of Failure of Mechanical Damage Due to External Interference

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Cosham ◽  
Jane Haswell ◽  
Neil Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Mechanical Damage ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
External Interference ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Major Accident ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Reduction Factors

Quantified risk assessments (QRAs) are widely used in the UK to assess the significance of the risk posed by major accident hazard pipelines on the population and infrastructure in the vicinity of the pipeline. A QRA requires the calculation of the frequency of failures and the consequences of failures. One of the main causes of failures in onshore pipelines is mechanical damage due to external interference, such as a dent, a gouge, or a dent and gouge. In the published literature, two methods have been used to calculate the probability of failure due to external interference: • historical failure data and • limit state functions combined with historical data (i.e. structural reliability-based methods). Structural reliability-based methods are mathematically complicated, compared to using historical failure data, but have several advantages, e.g. extrapolation beyond the limited historical data, and the identification of trends that may not be apparent in the historical data. In view of this complexity, proposed supplements to the UK pipeline design codes IGE/TD/1 (natural gas) and PD 8010 (all substances) — on the application of QRAs to proposed developments in the vicinity of major accident hazard pipelines — include simple ‘reduction factors’ for use in ‘screening’ risk assessments. These ‘reduction factors’ are based on a comprehensive parametric study using a structural reliability-based model to calculate the probability of failure due to mechanical damage, defined as: gouges, and dents and gouges. The two ‘reduction factors’ are expressed in terms of the design factor and wall thickness of the pipeline. It is shown that, through appropriate normalisation, the effects of diameter, grade and toughness are secondary. Reasonably accurate, but conservative, estimates of the probability of failure can be obtained using these ‘reduction factors’. The proposed methodology is considerably simpler than a structural reliability-based analysis. The development and verification of these ‘reduction factors’ is described in this paper.

An Update to the Recommended UKOPA External Interference Frequency Prediction Model and Pipeline Damage Distributions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Goodfellow ◽  
Chris Lyons ◽  
Susannah Turner ◽  
Fraser Gray ◽  
Simon Joyce
Keyword(s):  
Failure Rate ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Operating Experience ◽  
External Interference ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Product Loss ◽  
Distribution Parameters ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Incident Rates

The United Kingdom Onshore Pipeline Operators Association (UKOPA) was formed by UK pipeline operators to provide a common forum for representing operators interests in the safe management of pipelines. This includes providing historical failure statistics for use in pipeline quantitative risk assessment and UKOPA maintain a database to record this data. The UKOPA database holds data on product loss failures of UK major accident hazard pipelines from 1962 onwards and currently has a total length of 21,845 km of pipelines reporting. Overall exposure from 1952 to 2016 is 927,351 km years of operating experience with a total of 197 product loss incidents since 1962. The low number of failures means that the historical failure rate for pipelines of some specific diameters, wall thicknesses and material grades is zero or statistically insignificant. It is unreasonable to assume that the failure rate for these pipelines is actually zero. In addition to product loss incidents, the UKOPA database contains extensive data on measured part wall damage that did not cause product loss, unlike the European Gas Incident data Group (EGIG) database, which also includes the UK gas transmission pipeline product loss data. The data on damage to pipelines caused by external interference can be assessed to derive statistical distribution parameters describing the expected gouge and dent dimensions resulting from an incident. Overall external interference incident rates for different class locations can also be determined. These distributions and incident rates can be used in structural reliability based techniques to predict the failure frequency due to external interference for a given set of pipeline parameters. The current distributions of external interference damage were derived from data up to 2009 and presented as Weibull distributions for gouge depth, gouge length and dent depth. Analysis undertaken for the COOLTRANS CO2 pipeline project, undertaken by National Grid in the UK, has identified several improvements to the recommended UKOPA approach to external interference failure frequency prediction. This paper summarises those improvements and presents updated damage distribution parameters from data up to 2016.

Revision to the UK Pipeline Quantitative Risk Assessment Guidelines IGEM/TD/2 and PD 8010-3

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham D. Goodfellow ◽  
Jane V. Haswell ◽  
Neil W. Jackson ◽  
Roger Ellis
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
External Interference ◽  
Common View ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
The Uk

The United Kingdom Onshore Pipeline Operators Association (UKOPA) was formed by UK pipeline operators to provide a common forum for representing pipeline operators interests in the safe management of pipelines. This includes ensuring that UK pipeline codes include best practice, and that there is a common view in terms of compliance with these codes. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is used by operators in the UK to determine if individual and societal risk levels at new developments adjacent to existing pipelines are as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP). In 2008 the UKOPA Risk Assessment Working Group developed codified advice on the use of QRA applied to land use planning assessments, which was published by the Institution of Gas Engineers & Managers (IGEM) and the British Standards Institute (BSI). This advice was designed to ensure a standard and consistent approach, and reduce the potential for disagreement between stakeholders on the acceptability of proposed developments. Since publication of IGEM/TD/2 and PD8010-3 in 2008, feedback from users of the guidance together with new research work and additional discussions with the UK safety regulator, the Health & Safety Executive (HSE), have been undertaken and the codified advice has been revised and reissued in June 2013. This paper describes the revisions to the guidance given in these codes in relation to: • Clarification on application • Update of physical risk mitigation measures (slabbing and depth of cover) • Update of HSE approach to Land Use Planning • Update of failure frequency data: ○ Weibull damage distributions for external interference ○ Generic failure frequency curve for external interference ○ Prediction of failure frequency due to landsliding The revised codes, and their content, are considered to represent the current UK best practice in pipeline QRA.

THE ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY OF LNG

1974 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 157
Author(s):  
D. T. Linnett
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Calorific Value ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Peak Shaving ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Natural Gas Industry ◽  
Wobbe Index ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Liquid Natural Gas

The natural gas industry in Australia is growing rapidly and this is an opportune time to look at the possible place for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) in this expanding field.In general, as the demand for natural gas increases, and its distribution becomes more widespread, so the economics become more favourable for using LNG for peak shaving, standby purposes, or trucking to satellite vaporising stations. Apart from demand, however, a large number of other factors affect both the decision as to what type, if any, of LNG facility is warranted, and the selection of types and sizes of equipment for that facility. These factors include environmental considerations, calorific value (CV) and Wobbe Index limitations, purification problems, transport facilities, pipeline capacity limitations, climate, etc.In the United Kingdom, the use of LNG is now well established in a number of different roles, and much experience has been obtained in the planning, design, construction and operation of LNG installations. Whilst the growth patterns in Australia and the UK are similar, however, the requirements for storage are substantially different.It is concluded that, as the gas demand in Australia increases, and the distribution network becomes more widespread, LNG facilities may well become economic propositions to fulfil a number of combined roles.

Comparison and Analysis of Pipeline Failure Statistics

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sérgio B. Cunha
Keyword(s):  
Human Action ◽  
Failure Rates ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Failure Statistics ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Pipeline Failure ◽  
Comparison And Analysis ◽  
External Corrosion ◽  
Type Of Failure

Failure statistics for onshore pipelines transporting oil, refined products and natural gas from the USA, Canada and Europe are compared. Failure data from Brazilian pipelines are presented and included in the comparison. Failure rates for internal and external corrosion, human action and natural forces are analyzed and the expected failure rate for each failure mechanism is indicated. The effects of relevant construction and environmental factors on the failure rates are studied and mean trends are obtained. Furthermore, the sizes of the holes observed in each type of failure are also compared. Finally, the probability of ignition after a failure in gas and liquid pipelines is evaluated. This study may serve as basis for the estimation of failure frequency, hole size and probability of ignition for hazard liquids and gas pipelines.

İngiltere’den Türkiye’ye ‘Düzensiz’ Göçmen Dövizi Gönderme Davranışının Nedenleri Üzerine Nitel Bir İnceleme

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-190
Author(s):  
Fethiye Tilbe
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Values ◽  
Host Country ◽  
Regulatory Framework ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Migrant Communities ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
Money Transfers ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Migrant Groups

Bu makale, göçmen dövizi  akımlarında “düzensizlik” olarak ifade ettiğimiz, Türkiye’ye resmi kanallar dışında gönderilen enformel  göçmen dövizlerini, Birleşik Krallık’ta (özellikle Londra’da) yaşayan Türkiye kökenli göçmenler açısından incelemektedir. Her göçmen grubu, gerek ev sahibi ülkedeki düzenleyici çerçeve ve sosyo-ekonomik koşullar, gerek göçmen topluluğunun sosyo-kültürel değerleri tarafından belirlenen biçimde, farklı göçmen dövizi transfer biçimlerine eğilim sergilemektedir. Dolayısıyla farklı ülkelerdeki aynı kökenden göçmen toplulukları, ev sahibi ülkedeki dinamikler nedeniyle göçmen dövizlerinin formel ya da enformel (düzenli ya da düzensiz) gönderiminde farklılaşabilirken, aynı ülkedeki farklı ülke kökenli göçmen grupları da pek çok örüntünün etkisiyle farklı eğilim gösterebilmektedir. Nitel araştırma tasarımı kapsamında 27 göçmen ve 7 anahtar statüdeki katılımcıyla gerçekleştirilen yüz yüze görüşmelere dayalı olan bu çalışma, Birleşik Krallık’tan Türkiye’ye göçmen dövizi gönderimindeki düzensizlik olgusunu, her iki ülkenin sosyal, ekonomik ve kültürel dinamikleriyle ilişkilendirerek incelemeyi ve nedenlerini ortaya çıkarmayı amaç edinmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, göçmenlik statüsü, gönderilen para miktar ve sıklığı ile geleneksel ilişki ağlarına olan güvenin yanında, Birleşik Krallık’taki sosyal yardım ve çalışma biçimine ilişkinin düzenleyici çerçevenin ve göçmenlerin sosyo-ekonomik durumlarının Türkiye’ye enformel göçmen dövizi gönderiminde temel belirleyici olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.ABSTRACT IN ENGLISHA Qualitative Examination of Determinants of Remittances Sending Behaviour Among Immigrants from Turkey in the UKThis article examines the causes of irregularity in remittances flows from the United Kingdom (UK) to Turkey, from the perspective of migrants from Turkey living in the UK. Each group of migrants prefers different types of remittance sending methods, as determined by the regulatory framework and socio-economic conditions in the host country and the socio-cultural values of the migrant community. Therefore, migrant communities of the same origin in different countries may differ in using formal or informal sending methods of remittances due to the dynamics in the host country. Similarly, migrant groups of different nationalities in the same country may show different tendencies due to the influence of many patterns. Similarly, migrant groups of different nationalities in the same country may show different tendencies due to the influence of many patterns. This study aims to examine the phenomenon of irregularities in sending remittances by associating with the social, economic and cultural dynamics of both countries. For this purpose, face-to-face in-depth interviews were conducted with 27 immigrants and 7 key status participants by using qualitative research method. The obtained results reveal that the regulatory framework relating to social assistance and labour market in the UK, immigration status, the frequency and the amount of money sent and confidence in traditional relationship networks is the main determinants of informal money transfers to Turkey.

TBE in United Kingdom

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Clinical Disease ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Probable Case ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
South West ◽  
Louping Ill ◽  
The Uk ◽  
North And South ◽  
South West England

Until 2019, TBE was considered only to be an imported disease to the United Kingdom. In that year, evidence became available that the TBEV is likely circulating in the country1,2 and a first “probable case” of TBE originating in the UK was reported.3 In addition to TBEV, louping ill virus (LIV), a member of the TBEV-serocomplex, is also endemic in parts of the UK. Reports of clinical disease caused by LIV in livestock are mainly from Scotland, parts of North and South West England and Wales.4

Science, Politics, and the Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 119 (820) ◽  
pp. 303-309
Author(s):  
J. Nicholas Ziegler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Biomedical Research ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
The United States ◽  
Scientific Advice ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Effective Policy ◽  
Scientific Expertise ◽  
The Uk

Comparing the virus responses in Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States shows that in order for scientific expertise to result in effective policy, rational political leadership is required. Each of these three countries is known for advanced biomedical research, yet their experiences in the COVID-19 pandemic diverged widely. Germany’s political leadership carefully followed scientific advice and organized public–private partnerships to scale up testing, resulting in relatively low infection levels. The UK and US political responses were far more erratic and less informed by scientific advice—and proved much less effective.

Risk Transferin Public Private Partnership/Private Finance Initiative Procurement Documents:The Differencebetween The United Kingdom and Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Nooriha Abdullah ◽  
Darinka Asenova ◽  
Stephen J. Bailey
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Public Procurement ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Public Private Partnership ◽  
Private Finance Initiative ◽  
Private Partnership ◽  
Risk Transfer ◽  
Private Finance ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk

The aim of this paper is to analyse the risk transfer issue in Public Private Partnership/Private Finance Initiative (PPP/PFI) procurement documents in the United Kingdom (UK) and Malaysia. It utilises qualitative research methods using documentation and interviews for data collection. The UK documents (guidelines and contracts) identify the risks related to this form of public procurement of services and makeexplicittheappropriateallocation of those risks between the public and the private sector PPP/PFI partners and so the types of risks each party should bear. However, in Malaysia, such allocation of risks was not mentioned in PPP/PFI guidelines. Hence, a question arises regarding whether risk transfer exists in Malaysian PPP/PFI projects, whether in contracts or by other means. This research question is the rationale for the comparative analysis ofdocumentsand practicesrelatingtorisk transfer in the PPP/PFI procurements in both countries. The results clarify risk-related issues that arise in implementing PPP/PFI procurement in Malaysia, in particular how risk is conceptualised, recognised and allocated (whether explicitly or implicitly), whether or not that allocation is intended to achieve optimum risk transfer, and so the implications forachievement ofvalue for moneyor other such objectivesinPPP/PFI.

EVALUATION OF THE UNITED KINGDOM NATIONAL EXTERNAL QUALITY ASSESSMENT SERVICE 2008 (UK NEQAS 2008) GUIDELINES FOR THE DIAGNOSIS OF SUBARACHNOID HEMORRHAGE USING SPECTROPHOTOMETRIC XANTHOCHROMIA: A RETROSPECTIVE STUDY

2009 ◽  
Vol 32 (6S) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
A Gangloff ◽  
L Nadeau
Keyword(s):  
Subarachnoid Hemorrhage ◽  
Cerebral Amyloid Angiopathy ◽  
Viral Encephalitis ◽  
Objective Evaluation ◽  
Final Diagnosis ◽  
Amyloid Angiopathy ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Cerebral Amyloid ◽  
The One ◽  
The Uk

Objective: Evaluation of the UK NEQAS 2008 guidelines for the interpretation of spectrophotometric xanthochromia. Method: A search of the laboratory database for all the xanthochromia test results between May 1st 2008 and May 1st 2009 was performed. Medical charts were reviewed for patients of Hôpital de l’Enfant-Jésus (HEJ) that had at least one detectable pigment (bilirubin, oxyhemoglobin, or methemoglobin). Xanthochromia results obtained with 4 different criteria (Chalmers original, Modified Chalmers, Duiser and UK NEQAS 2008) were compared. Results: We reviewed 41 medical charts (2 patients with duplicate lumbar punctures (LP) for a total of 43 LP). For these 41 patients there were 11 positive xanthochromia results, 5 of which were in concordance with a final diagnosis of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The diagnosis of the 6 other positive xanthochromia results were as follow: meningeal spread of a lymphoma, cerebral amyloid angiopathy, exertional headache, viral encephalitis with a possibility of petechiaes on the cerebral CT and second LP. Interpretation (negative/positive) of 40/43 LP was identical for the 4 methods. 2 LP were positive with Duiser and UK NEQAS 2008 but negative with Chalmers approaches (final diagnosis: SAH and cerebral amyloid angiopathy). 1 LP was positive only by the Duiser method (viral encephalitis). Conclusions: UK NEQAS 2008 guidelines identified all SAH but are sensitive to traumatic and pathologic meningeal lesions. Except for a case of viral encephalitis with a suspicion of cerebral petechiaes on CT, UK NEQAS 2008 gave xanthochromia results similar to the one in use at HEJ (Duiser). Chalmers original and Modified Chalmers methods missed one of the five SAH.

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