Probabilistic Fitness-for-Service Assessment of Pipeline

Author(s):  
Vlad Semiga ◽  
Aaron Dinovitzer

Fitness for service assessments of oil and gas pipelines, conducted either at the design stage or to evaluate an indentified anomaly, are generally carried out in a deterministic manner based on conservative estimates of the required input parameters. The following paper presents a probabilistic Fitness-for-Service (FFS) assessment approach which can be used in a risk based pipeline integrity management program. The probabilistic assessment utilizes an Advanced Monte Carlo simulation based approach and the fracture mechanics techniques described in BS 7910. The paper presents an overview of the basic approach and provides a demonstration of its capabilities in terms of estimating the risk of failure (or probability of failure) associated with a pipeline over time, due to the presence of a crack like flaw. The paper also discusses the sources of data and inherent assumptions used to model various input parameters required for a typical FFS analysis carried out according to BS 7910.

2019 ◽  
Vol 68 ◽  
pp. 59-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Iqbal ◽  
Bushra Waheed ◽  
Husnain Haider ◽  
Solomon Tesfamariam ◽  
Rehan Sadiq

Author(s):  
Husain Mohammed Al-Muslim ◽  
Abul Fazal M. Arif

Mechanical damage in transportation pipelines is a threat to its structural integrity. Failure in oil and gas pipelines is catastrophic as it leads to personal fatalities, injuries, property damage, loss of production and environmental pollution. Therefore, this issue is of extreme importance to Pipeline Operators, Government and Regulatory Agencies, and local Communities. As mechanical damage can occur during the course of pipeline life due to many reasons, appropriate tools and procedures for assessment of severity are necessary. There are many parameters that affect the severity of the mechanical damage related to the pipe geometry and material properties, the defect geometry and boundary conditions, and the pipe state of strain and stress. Moreover, multiple damaged areas may exist and interact like in the case of a hit by a multiple-tooth excavator. The main objective of this paper is to determine the distance and orientation where interaction of multiple dents is significant. The strain and stress fields are evaluated for static pressure loading and the stress range and fatigue life are evaluated for cyclic pressure loading. Accordingly, guidelines are developed for the integrity assessment of multiple dents in oil and gas pipelines. The input parameters of the problem including the pipe material, pipe geometry, dent dimensions, and distance and orientation between two dents have a great variability. Therefore, probabilistic design approach is applied to determine the sensitivity and correlation between the output and input parameters. The base case deterministic FEA model has been validated with full-instrumented full-scale tests conducted by Pipeline Research Council International as part of their active program to fully characterize mechanical damage.


Author(s):  
Honglong Zheng ◽  
Muyang Ai ◽  
Lijian Zhou ◽  
Mingfei Li ◽  
Ting Wang ◽  
...  

As a preventative management mode, integrity management which is significantly effective is now applicable in modern industry. Based on the successful application of integrity management for the pipeline, managers expect an extension of the integrity management program for the oil and gas stations such as pumping stations, so as to make the best arrangement of resources and guarantee the safety of station facilities. The differences between station integrity management system in China and abroad are analyzed. It is claimed that the oil and gas station integrity management is more difficult and complicated in China. An integrity management program is developed for the oil and gas stations in China. The authors summarily introduce the station integrity management framework, and determine the processes and elements of management. For the main parts of the stations are plenty of facilities, the authors attempt to carry out the management on each category of facilities in particular. According to the characteristics and working status, field facilities can be classified into three categories: static facilities, dynamic facilities, and electrical instruments. For all these facilities, integrity management approach consists of five steps: data collection, risk assessment, integrity assessment, repair & maintenance, and performance evaluation. Station integrity management system comprises five aspects: system documents, standards & specifications, supporting technologies, management platforms and applications. This paper should be considered as a reference for the oil and gas station integrity managers in the future.


Author(s):  
Robert A. McElroy

Recently enacted U.S. regulations will require distribution system operators to develop Distribution Integrity Management Programs (DIMP). The purpose of this regulation is to reduce system operating risks and the probability of failure by requiring operators to establish a documented, systematic approach to evaluating and managing risks associated with their pipeline systems. Distribution Integrity Management places new and significant requirements on distribution operators’ Geographic Information System (GIS). Operators already gather much of the data needed for meeting this regulation. The challenge lies in efficiently and accurately integrating and evaluating all system data so operators can identify and implement measures to address risks, monitor progress and report on results. Similar to the role geospatial solutions played in helping transmission pipeline operators meet Integrity Management Program requirements, this paper will discuss the role GIS can play in helping operators meet the DIMP regulations. Data requirements, storage and integration will also be presented. The paper will give examples of how risk-based decision making can improve operational efficiency and resource allocation.


2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 06018003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Iqbal ◽  
Bushra Waheed ◽  
Solomon Tesfamariam ◽  
Rehan Sadiq

Author(s):  
Hua Zhang ◽  
Jinheng Luo ◽  
Juanli Chen ◽  
Xinwei Zhao ◽  
Guangli Zhang

Risk assessment is basis to put pipeline integrity management in practice and the acceptable risk level is important criteria to execute risk assessment and constitute maintenance safeguard. So it is very important to establish a rational and practicable acceptable criterion and present a specific acceptable risk level. It is just for this need that the present paper gave a review of all the available research around the acceptable risk level and analyzed various domestic and overseas standards and documentation concerning how to define the acceptable risk criteria. As a result, a criterion suitable for oil and gas pipeline was presented and recommended acceptable risk level was gave.


Author(s):  
Kevin Spencer ◽  
Shahani Kariyawasam ◽  
Cathy Tetreault ◽  
Jon Wharf

Corrosion growth rates are an essential input into an Integrity Management Program but they can often be the largest source of uncertainty and error. A relatively simple method to estimate a corrosion growth rate is to compare the size of a corrosion anomaly over time and the most practical way to do this for a whole pipeline system is via the use of In-Line Inspection (ILI). However, the reported depth of the anomaly following an ILI run contains measurement uncertainties, i.e., sizing tolerances that must be accounted for in defining the uncertainty, or error associated with the measured corrosion growth rate. When the same inspection vendor performs the inspections then proven methods exist that enable this growth error to be significantly reduced but these methods include the use of raw inspection data and, specialist software and analysis. Guidelines presently exist to estimate corrosion growth rates using inspection data from different ILI vendors. Although well documented, they are often only applicable to “simple” cases, pipelines containing isolated corrosion features with low feature density counts. As the feature density or the corrosion complexity increases then different reporting specifications, interaction rules, analysis procedures, sizing models, etc can become difficult to account for, ultimately leading to incorrect estimations or larger uncertainties regarding the growth error. This paper will address these issues through the experiences of a North American pipeline operator. Accurately quantifying the reliability of pipeline assets over time requires accurate corrosion growth rates and the case study will demonstrate how the growth error was significantly reduced over existing methodologies. Historical excavation and recoat information was utilized to identify static defects and quantify systemic bias between inspections. To reduce differences in reporting and the analyst interpretation of the recorded magnetic signals, novel analysis techniques were employed to normalize the data sets against each other. The resulting uncertainty of the corrosion growth rates was then further reduced by deriving, and applying a regression model to reduce the effect of the different sizing models and the identified systemic bias. The reduced uncertainty ultimately led to a better understanding of the corrosion activity on the pipeline and facilitated a better integrity management decision process.


Author(s):  
Stephen Westwood ◽  
Phil Hopkins

Smart pigs are used as part of an integrity management plan for oil and gas pipelines to detect metal loss defects. The pigs do not measure the defects: they collect signals from on board equipment and these signals are later analysed. Signal analysis is complex; consequently, defect sizing tolerances and confidence levels can be difficult to determine and apply in practice. They have a major effect when assessing the significance of the defect, and when calculating corrosion growth rates from the results of multiple inspections over time. This paper describes how defect sizing tolerances and confidence levels are obtained by pigging companies, and compares standard and high resolution pigs. Probability theory is used by the authors to estimate the likelihood that a defect is smaller or deeper than the reported (by the pig) value for both standard and high resolution tools. The paper also shows how these tolerances can be included in defect failure assessment and the results of multiple pig runs.


Author(s):  
Bushra Waheed ◽  
Brodie Couch ◽  
Gouri Bhuyan ◽  
Hassan Iqbal ◽  
Eddie Lee

Integrity Management Program (IMP) is a systematic and documented program for assuring asset integrity throughout the full life cycle of an asset. To ensure safe and reliable operation, the British Columbia Oil and Gas Commission (Commission) has been requiring its licensed pipeline operators through its regulations to develop and implement pipeline integrity management programs (IMPs) in accordance with Canadian Industry Standard CSA Z662. The auditing process, the collated results and findings from the IMP audit years (2011–15) were published in IPC 2016-64161[1]. Since 2016, the Commission has enhanced its IMP compliance assurance process, and aligned it with the management system approach using Deming’s model of plan-do-check-act (PDCA) for IMP components and incorporated a lifecycle approach that spans the entire lifecycle of a pipeline system from planning to abandonment. In addition, the Commission has adopted a multi-criteria decision-making approach when prioritizing which operators to audit. This method utilizes weighted rank approach and takes into account multiple factors, such as, previous IMP audit results, pipeline length and product, class location, incident frequency, and asset age. Through collaborative efforts with the University of British Columbia (Okanagan), an innovative risk based audit tool — Integrity Management Program Audit and Knowledge Tool (IMPAKT) has been developed to help evaluate the compliance of operators’ IMP in terms of the management system approach and its associated risk. This tool conducts three-dimensional analysis of IMP performance using the failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) technique and allows the Commission to generate a risk profile for each IMP component to determine which components are most critical, requiring immediate attention. The final audit results are presented as a Risk Priority Number (RPN), which is a product of severity, occurrence and action. An effective integrity management program requires a strong safety culture, therefore, safety culture aspects are incorporated into the risk based auditing tool, IMPAKT. This risk based evaluation process also allows the Commission to develop a compliance benchmark to make comparison between different operators’ IMP results for continuous performance improvement. This paper presents the innovative approach developed and implemented by the Commission for the IMP compliance oversight (auditing) process and implication of such changes.


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