Pipeline Integrity Reliability Analysis Levels

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sherif Hassanien ◽  
Len Leblanc ◽  
Javier Cuervo ◽  
Karmun Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Metal Loss ◽  
Operating Pressure ◽  
Reliability Engineering ◽  
Reliability Methods ◽  
Types Of Information

Reliability engineering science is a mature discipline that has been used extensively in industries such as aviation, nuclear energy, automobiles, and structures. The application of reliability principles (especially structural reliability) in oil and gas transmission pipelines is still an active area of development. The advent of high resolution in-line inspections tools (ILI) facilitates a formal application/utilization of reliability methods in pipeline integrity in order to safely manage deformation, metal loss, and crack threats. At the same time, the massive amount of ILI data, their associated uncertainties, and the availability/accuracy of failure prediction models present a challenge for operators to effectively implement the use of reliability analysis to check the safety of integrity programs within available timeframes. On the other hand, approximate reliability techniques may affect the analysis in terms of both accuracy and precision. In this paper, a Pipeline Integrity Reliability Analysis (PIRA) approach is presented where the sophistication of the reliability analysis is staged into three levels: PIRA levels I, II and III. The three PIRA levels correspond to different representations of integrity uncertainties, uses of available validated/calibrated data, uses of statistical models for operating pressure and resistance random variables, implementation of reliability methods, and consideration of failure modes. Moreover, PIRA levels allow for improved integration of reliability analysis with the existing timelines/stages of traditional integrity programs, such that integrity data are updated as the integrity program progresses. The proposed integrity reliability approach allows for the delivery of safety checks leveraging all types of information available at any given point in time. In addition, the approach provides a full understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each PIRA level. Pipeline corrosion case studies are provided herein to illustrate how the PIRA Levels can be applied to integrity programs.

A Comprehensive Approach to Corrosion Management Based on Structural Reliability Methods

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Stephens ◽  
Maher Nessim
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Corrosion Damage ◽  
Metal Loss ◽  
Corrosion Failure ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
Reliability Methods ◽  
Inspection Data

Quantitative analysis approaches based on structural reliability methods are gaining wider acceptance as a basis for assessing pipeline integrity and these methods are ideally suited to managing metal loss corrosion damage as identified through in-line inspection. The essence of this approach is to combine deterministic failure prediction models with in-line inspection data, the physical and operational characteristics of the pipeline, corrosion growth rate projections, and the uncertainties inherent in this information, to estimate the probability of corrosion failure as a function of time. The probability estimates so obtained provide the basis for informed decisions on which defects to repair, when to repair them and when to re-inspect. While much has been written in recent years on these types of analyses, the authors are not aware of any published methods that address all of the factors that can significantly influence the probability estimates obtained from such an analysis. Of particular importance in this context are the uncertainties associated with the reported defect data, the uncertainties associated with the models used to predict failure from this defect data, and the approach used to discriminate between failure by leak and failure by burst. The correct discrimination of failure mode is important because tolerable failure probabilities should depend on the mode of failure, with lower limits being required for burst failures because the consequences of failure are typically orders of magnitude more severe than for leaks. This paper provides an overview of a probabilistic approach to corrosion defect management that addresses the key sources of uncertainty and discriminates between failure modes. This approach can be used to assess corrosion integrity based on in-line inspection data, schedule defect repairs and provide guidance in establishing re-inspection intervals.

Use of Structural Reliability Analysis for Uprating Above Ground Installations

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Francis ◽  
C. S. Jandu ◽  
M. A. McCallum
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Operating Pressure ◽  
Stress Concentrations ◽  
Safe Operation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Design Factors ◽  
Increased Pressure

In support of an extensive programme to increase the operating pressure of the UK National Transmission System (NTS) Advantica Technologies Limited have developed a structural reliability based methodology which is used to demonstrate the safe operation of Above Ground Installations (AGIs) at increased pressure levels. The approach is based on Advantica’s methodology for demonstrating the safe operation of pipeline sections at high design factors. It incorporates the effects of stress concentrations occurring at Tees and bends within complex pipework systems, and addresses the credible failure modes, including shakedown, corrosion and fatigue, taking account of pressure and thermal loadings. Particular attention is given to the time-dependent nature of the failure modes and the mitigating effect of the pre-service hydrostatic test and weld inspections is included.

CORRECTION OF PREDICTION MODEL OUTPUT–APPLICATION TO GENERAL CORROSION MODEL

2021 ◽  
Vol 156 (A4) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Hifi ◽  
N Barltrop
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
General Corrosion ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Reliability Models ◽  
Corrosion Model ◽  
Recorded Data

This paper applies a newly developed methodology to calibrate the corrosion model within a structural reliability analysis. The methodology combines data from experience (measurements and expert judgment) and prediction models to adjust the structural reliability models. Two corrosion models published in the literature have been used to demonstrate the technique used for the model calibration. One model is used as a prediction for a future degradation and a second one to represent the inspection recorded data. The results of the calibration process are presented and discussed.

scholarly journals Dynamic Reliability Analysis of Corroded Pipeline Using Bayesian Network

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.35) ◽  
pp. 210
Author(s):  
Nurul Sa’aadah Sulaiman ◽  
Henry Tan
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Network ◽  
Operating Pressure ◽  
Dynamic Reliability ◽  
Time Dynamic ◽  
Remaining Service Life ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Deterioration Process

Maintenance and integrity management of hydrocarbons pipelines face the challenges from uncertainties in the data available. This paper demonstrates a way for pipeline remaining service life prediction that integrates structural reliability analysis, accumulated corrosion knowledge, and inspection data on a sound mathematical foundation. Pipeline defects depth grows with time according to an empirical corrosion power law, and this is checked for leakage and rupture probability. The pipeline operating pressure is checked with the degraded failure pressure given by ASME B31G code for rupture likelihood. As corrosion process evolves with time, Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is employed to model the stochastic corrosion deterioration process. From the results obtained, the proposed DBN model for pipeline reliability is advanced compared with other traditional structural reliability method whereby the updating ability brings in more accurate prediction results of structural reliability. The comparisons show that the DBN model can achieve a realistic result similar to the conventional method, Monte Carlo Simulation with very minor discrepancy.

Structural Reliability Analysis Method for Assessing the Fatigue Capacity of Subsea Wellhead Connectors

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Lorents Reinås ◽  
Anders Wormsen ◽  
Andreas Aardal ◽  
Per Gustafsson
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Fatigue Loading ◽  
Load Effect ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Capacity ◽  
Drilling Operations ◽  
Male Part ◽  
External Loads

Abstract Subsea Wellheads are the male part of an 18 3/4” bore connector used for connecting subsea components such as drilling BOP, XT or Workover systems equipped with a female counterpart — a wellhead connector. Subsea wellheads have an external locking profile for engaging a preloaded wellhead connector with matching internal profile. As such connection is made subsea, a metal-to-metal sealing is obtained, and a structural conduit is formed. The details of the subsea wellhead profile are specified by the wellhead user and the standardized H4 hub has a widespread use. In terms of well integrity, the wellhead connector is a barrier element during both well construction (drilling) activities and life of field (production). Due to the nature of subsea drilling operations, a wellhead connector will be subjected to external loads. Fatigue and plastic collapse due to overload are therefore two potential failure modes. These two failure modes are due to the cyclic nature of the loads and the potential for accidental and extreme single loads respectively. The safe load the wellhead connector can sustain without failure can be established by deterministic structural capacity methods. This paper outlines how a generic and probabilistic engineering method; Structural Reliability Analysis, can be applied to a subsea wellhead connector to estimate the probability of fatigue failure (PoF). As the wellhead connector is a mechanism consisting of a plurality of parts the load effect from cyclic external loads is influenced by uncertainty in friction, geometry and pre-load. Further, there is a inter dependence between these parameters that complicates the problem. In addition to these uncertainties, uncertainties in the fatigue loading itself (from rig and riser) is also accounted for. This paper presents results from applications of Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to a wellhead connector and provides experiences and learnings from this case work.

Subset Simulation for Structural Reliability Analysis of Pipeline Corrosion Defects

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daryl Bandstra ◽  
Alex M. Fraser
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Computational Effort ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Direct Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Metal Loss ◽  
Subset Simulation ◽  
Small Probabilities

Abstract One of the leading threats to the integrity of oil and gas transmission pipeline systems is metal-loss corrosion. This threat is commonly managed by evaluating measurements obtained with in-line inspection tools, which locate and size individual metal-loss defects in order to plan maintenance and repair activities. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods are used in the pipeline industry to evaluate the severity of these defects. Probabilistic evaluations typically utilize structural reliability, which is an approach to designing and assessing structures that focuses on the calculation and prediction of the probability that a structure may fail. In the structural reliability approach, the probability of failure is obtained from a multidimensional integral. The solution to this integral is typically estimated numerically using Direct Monte Carlo (DMC) simulation as DMC is relatively simple and robust. The downside is that DMC requires a significant amount of computational effort to estimate small probabilities. The objective of this paper is to explore the use of a more efficient approach, called Subset Simulation (SS), to estimate the probability of burst failure for a pipeline metal-loss defect. We present comparisons between the probability of failure estimates generated for a sample defect by Direct Monte Carlo simulation and Subset Simulation for differing numbers of simulations. These cases illustrate the decreased computational effort required by Subset Simulation to produce stable probability of failure estimates, particularly for small probabilities. For defects with a burst probability in the range of 10−4 to 10−7, SS is shown to reduce the computational effort (time or cost) by 10 to 1,000 times. By significantly reducing the computational effort required to obtain stable estimates of small failure probabilities, this methodology reduces one of the major barriers to the use of reliability methods for system-wide pipeline reliability assessment.

Structural Reliability and Human Error of Reinforced-Concrete Building during Construction

2011 ◽  
Vol 368-373 ◽  
pp. 1365-1369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xue Xia Yuan ◽  
Wei Liang Jin
Keyword(s):  
Reinforced Concrete ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Human Reliability ◽  
Human Reliability Analysis ◽  
Supporting System

In view of the significant failure modes of formwork-supporting system and reinforced- concrete member, the reliability analysis model of time-dependent system affected by human errors during the construction of typical multistory reinforced-concrete buildings was developed. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) method was applied to simulate the error rates and error magnitudes of the reinforced-concrete members and the formwork-supporting system, and human reliability models were developed, two cases for error-free case and error-included case were considered. Furthermore the check emphasis of formwork-supporting system was pointed during multistory building construction.

A Survey of Early Design Risk and Reliability Methods and Their Impediments to Move Into Practice

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan M. O’Halloran ◽  
Robert B. Stone ◽  
Irem Y. Tumer
Keyword(s):  
Research Methods ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Reliability Engineering ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Early Design ◽  
Reliability Methods ◽  
Reliability Block Diagrams

This research surveys early design risk and reliability methodologies and discusses the impediments of moving these research methods into practice. Reliability engineering techniques exist primarily to help engineers better meet the needs of customers by extending design life and reducing the number of failures observed throughout the intended life. These efforts look at system components and functions, critical events, failure modes, and system characteristics to assess risk and reliability during the early design phase before detailed design has begun. Surveying early design reliability to identify underdeveloped areas of research contributes to an ongoing effort to increase the presence of reliability engineering earlier in design. In addition, this improves a researchers’ understanding of key consideration that need to be addressed during the development of the research so that it is useful in practice. Throughout this paper, four fundamental methods are identified and described including Event Tree Analysis, Fault Tree Analysis, Reliability Block Diagrams, and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis. Related methods, or those developed to solve limitations of the fundamental methods, are presented and compared to the fundamental methods. Finally, the impediments of moving research methods into practice are surveyed, then discussion is provided for the factors that improve this transition of research.

Methodology for Fatigue Analysis in Flexible Pipes Based on Structural Reliability Considering S-N Bi-Linear Curve

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando dos Santos Loureiro Filho ◽  
Edison Castro Prates de Lima ◽  
Luís Volnei Sudati Sagrilo ◽  
Carlos Alberto Duarte de Lemos
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Fatigue Analysis ◽  
Flexible Pipe ◽  
Environmental Loads ◽  
Flexible Pipes ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Flexible pipes are largely used by oil and gas companies all over the world to exploit oil and gas reserves located into the sea. These pipes are composed by different layers, each one with a specific function. The environmental loads can induce different types of failure modes in a flexible pipe. One important failure mode is associated with the fatigue damage in the tension armours. Fatigue analysis depends on various parameters that are uncertain. A reliability-based procedure to take into account these uncertainties in the fatigue analysis of flexible pipes has been recently proposed [1]. In this methodology the S-N curves have been modeled by a one-slope model. The present work expands this methodology in order to consider S-N bi-linear models.

Structural Reliability Analysis of Loading Platform Cantilever under Multiple Failure Modes

2010 ◽  
Vol 102-104 ◽  
pp. 204-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Jun Zhang ◽  
Min Li ◽  
Min Qin Zhang ◽  
Xiao Wei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Load Capacity ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Main Beam ◽  
Order Moment ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Multiple Failure Modes

Force behaviors of the loading platform of rotating stereo garages is analyzed, equations describing the load capacity and the deformation limit state are proposed for the key sections by applying the second-order moment into the reliability analysis of the main beam. Considering random parameters subject to normal distribution, a reliability model of the main beam of the loading platform is set up based on multiple failure modes and the reliability is analyzed and calculated by using second-order moment. Simulation results show that the reliability model is significant to guide designing on the reliability of rotating stereo garages and improves rotating stereo garages.

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