Spectral Fatigue Analysis of Plate Surface Hot-Spots: A Practical Solution to the Stress Direction Issue

Spectral Fatigue Analysis using coupled hydrodynamics and finite element models has now become a common practice for the fatigue strength assessment of offshore units, with established procedures given in Classification Rules. However, users are facing a practical issue that is almost never mentioned in the procedures. Indeed, many fatigue hot-spots are located on a plate surface, as opposed to plate edges. For such hot-spots, the finite element model results are the three components of the plane-stress stress tensor. Therefore, the outcome of the Spectral Fatigue Analysis is a set of three transfer functions (RAOs). On the other hand, our industry’s practice regarding the fatigue strength model is still the proven « design S-N curve » approach in combination with the Palmgren-Miner’s damage summation. As a consequence, today the engineer is left with no clear instruction about the proper way how to close this gap between the three stress RAOs on the one hand, and the single stress S-N curve on the other hand. If any advice is given, it is most often to consider the principal stresses, tentatively extending to spectral analysis the classification rule load cases approach. However, principal stress determination is a non-linear procedure that is not compatible with spectral analysis in frequency domain. Turning the spectral results into time domain to overcome this limitation is extremely costly and is not straightforward. Of course, a rational solution to this issue would be the adoption of a multiaxial fatigue damage criteria in lieu of the uniaxial S-N curve. But until such a multiaxial fatigue criteria is widely accepted in our industry, users have to square the circle, and force their stress tensor RAOs into the existing rule criteria. In this paper, a practical solution to reconcile plane stress results and conventional S-N curve criterion in spectral fatigue is proposed: the “facet approach “.

Bayesian Multi-Level Modelling for Improved Prediction of Corrosion Growth Rate

In pipelines, pressure vessels and various other steel structures, the remaining thickness of a corroding ligament can be measured directly and repeatedly over time. Statistical analysis of these measurements is a common approach for estimating the rate of corrosion growth, where the uncertainties associated with the inspection activity are taken into account. An additional source of variability in such calculations is the epistemic uncertainty associated with the limited number of measurements that are available to engineers at any point in time. Traditional methods face challenges in fitting models to limited or missing datasets. In such cases, deterministic upper bound values, as recommended in industrial guidance, are sometimes assumed for the purpose of integrity management planning. In this paper, Bayesian inference is proposed as a means for representing available information in consistency with evidence. This, in turn, facilitates decision support in the context of risk-informed integrity management. Aggregating inspection data from multiple locations does not account for the possible variability between the locations, and creating fully independent models can result in excessive levels of uncertainty at locations with limited data. Engineers intuitively acknowledge that the areas with more sites of corrosion should, to some extent, inform estimates of growth rates in other locations. Bayesian multi-level (hierarchical) models provide a mathematical basis for achieving this by means of the appropriate pooling of information, based on the homogeneity of the data. Included in this paper is an outline of the process of fitting a Bayesian multi-level model and a discussion of the benefits and challenges of pooling inspection data between distinct locations, using example calculations and simulated data.

A Review of Tubular Conical Transition Strength Design Equations

This paper consists of two parts. Part one presents a thin-shell analytical solution for calculating the conical transition junction loads. Design equations as contained in the current offshore standards are based on Boardman’s 1940s papers with beam-column type of solutions. Recently, Lotsberg presented a solution based on shell theory, in which both the tubular and the cone were treated with cylindrical shell equations. The new solution as presented in this paper is based on both cylindrical and conical shell theories. Accuracies of these various derivations will be compared and checked against FEM simulations. Part 2 of this paper is concerned with the ultimate capacity equations of conical transitions. This is motivated by the authors’ desire to unify the apparent differences among the API 2A, ISO 19902 and NORSOK design standards. It will be shown that the NORSOK provisions are equivalent to the Tresca yield criterion as derived from shell plasticity theory. API 2A provisions are demonstrated to piecewise-linearly approximate this Tresca yield surface with reasonable consistency. The 2007 edition of ISO 19902 will be shown to be too conservative when compared to these other two design standards.

Stress Concentration Factors Calculation: Analytical and Numerical Approaches for Welded Tubular Joints

In the oil and gas industry, fixed platforms are commonly applied in shallow water production. In-place environmental conditions generates cyclic loads on the structure that might lead to structural degradation due to fatigue damage. Fatigue is one of the most common failure modes of offshore structures and is typically estimated when dimensioning of the structure during design phase. However, in times when life extension of existing offshore structures is being a topic in high demand by industry, mature fields may represent an interesting investment, especially for small companies. Concerning fixed platforms, composed mainly by welded tubular joints, the assessment of hot spot stresses is considered to predict structure fatigue. The estimation of welded joint hot spot stresses is based on the stress concentration factors (SCFs), which are given by parametric formulae, finite element analysis (FEA) or experimental tests. Parametric formulae may be defined as a fast and low-cost method, meanwhile finite elements analysis may be time consuming and experimental tests associated with higher costs. Given these different characteristics, each method is applied according to the study case, which will rely on the joint geometry and associated loads. Considering simple joint geometries several sets of parametric equations found in the literature may be applied. On the other hand, the SCFs calculation of non-studied yet complex joints consider known formulae adapted according to the under load joint behavior and geometry. Previous analysis shows that this adaptation may furnish different results compared to those obtained by FEA. Furthermore, it is observed that even for simple joints the results derived from the different methods may differ. Given their importance for the oil and gas industry, since they are the basis for the assessment of the fatigue life of welded tubular joints which may impact on additional costs related to maintenance and inspection campaigns, the estimation of SCFs must be the most accurate as possible. Therefore, this paper intends to investigate the differences between results derived from parametric formulae and different FEA studies.

Adjusting Environmental Contours for Specified Expected Number of Unwanted Events

Environmental contours are applied in probabilistic structural reliability analysis to identify extreme environmental conditions that may give rise to extreme loads and responses. Typically, they are constructed to correspond to a certain return period and a probability of exceedance with regards to the environmental conditions that can again be related to the probability of failure of a structure. Thus, they describe events with a certain probability of being exceeded one or more times during a certain time period, which can be found from a certain percentile of the underlying distribution. In this paper, various ways of adjusting such environmental contours to account for the expected number of exceedances within a certain time period are discussed. Depending on how such criteria are defined, one may get more lenient or more stringent criteria compared to the classical return period.

Offshore Drilling: Extending the Weather Window for Operations by Optimal Use of Simulations and Probabilistic Machine Learning

Operators of offshore floating drilling units have limited time to decide on whether a drilling operation can continue as planned or if it needs to be postponed or aborted due to oncoming bad weather. With day-rates of several hundred thousand USD, small delays in the original schedule might amass to considerable costs. On the other hand, pushing the limits of the load capacity of the riser-stack and wellhead may compromise the integrity of the well itself, and such a failure is not an option. Advanced simulation techniques may reduce uncertainty about how different weather scenarios influence the system’s integrity, and thus increase the acceptable weather window considerably. However, real-time simulations are often not feasible and the stochastic behavior of wave-loads make it difficult to simulate all relevant weather scenarios prior to the operation. This paper outlines and demonstrates an approach which utilizes probabilistic machine learning techniques to effectively reduce uncertainty. More specifically we use Gaussian process regression to enable fast approximation of the relevant structural response from complex simulations. The probabilistic nature of the method adds the benefit of an estimated uncertainty in the prediction which can be utilized to optimize how the initial set of relevant simulation scenarios should be selected, and to predict real-time estimates of the utilization and its uncertainty when combined with current weather forecasts. This enables operators to have an up-to-date forecast of the system’s utilization, as well as sufficient time to trigger additional scenario-specific simulation(s) to reduce the uncertainty of the current situation. As a result, it reduces unnecessary conservatism and gives clear decision support for critical situations.

A Study on the Thermal Deformation of Fillet Joint Friction Stir Welding

In this study, experiments and simulations were performed for fillet joint friction stir welding according to tool shape and welding conditions. Conventional butt friction stir welding has good weldability because heat is generated by friction with the bottom of the tool shoulder. However, in the case of fillet friction stir welding, the frictional heat is not sufficiently generated at the bottom of the tool shoulder due to the shape of the tool and the shape of the joint. Therefore, it is important to sufficiently generate frictional heat by slowing the welding speed as compared to butt welding. In this study, experiments and simulations were carried out on an aluminum battery housing made by friction stir welding an extruded material with a fillet joint. The temperature of the structure was measured using thermocouple during welding, and the heat source was calculated through correlation analysis. Thermal elasto-plastic analysis of the structure was carried out using the calculated heat source and geometric boundary conditions. It is confirmed that the experimental results and the simulation results are well matched. Based on the results of the study, the deformation of the structure can be calculated through simulation even if the tool shape and welding process conditions change.

1300 Tons Grouted Integrity Support Installation Case Study

The North sea Yme oil field was discovered in 1987, production started in 1996 and ceased after 6 years when it was considered no longer profitable to operate. In 2007 a new development was approved, being Yme the first field re-opened in the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The concept selected was a MOPUStor: comprising a jack-up unit grouted to a subsea storage tank. Due to compromised structural integrity and lack of regulatory compliance that came to light shortly after installation, the platform was required to be removed [1]. The remaining riser caisson and the future 1050 t wellhead module required a support to allow the re-use of the facilities and tap the remaining oil reserves. The innovative tubular frame support was designed as a braced unit, secured to the existing MOPUstor leg receptacles and holding a grouted clamp larger than typical offshore clamps for which design guidance in ISO is available. The existing facilities had to be modified to receive the new structure and to guide it in place within the small clearances available. The aim of this paper is to describe the solutions developed to prepare and verify the substructure for installation; to predict the dynamic behavior of a subsea heavy lift operation with small clearances around existing assets (down to 150 mm); and to place large volume high strength grouted connections, exceeding the height and thickness values from any project ever done before. In order to avoid early age degradation of the grout, a 1 mm maximum relative movement requirement was the operation design philosophy. A reliable system to stabilize the caisson, which displacements were up to 150 mm, was developed to meet the criteria during grouting and curing. In the stabilizer system design, as well as the plan for contingencies with divers to restart grouting in the event of a breakdown, the lessons learned from latest wind turbine industry practices and from the first attempt to re-develop the field using grouted connections were incorporated. Currently the substructure is secured to provide the long term integrity of the structure the next 20 years of future production in the North Sea environment.

Research on Protective Performance of Protective Liquid Tank to Shock Wave Generated by Fragment

In this paper, the simulation method is used to study the installation of metal plates in the liquid tank as a protective structure. The process of shock wave propagation in the liquid tank is analyzed by finite element software, and the metal plate deformation caused by shock wave is discussed. In addition, the pressure changes of different measuring points are compared when installing aluminum plate, steel plate and no protective structure in the liquid tank, and the effects of different protective structures on weakening shock wave are analyzed. Through the simulation method, the protective effects of the three basic parameters (the layer number, position and angle) of the protective structure are analyzed, and the effects of different forms of protective structures on the ability for weakening shock wave are also discussed. The results of this paper can provide references for the optimal design of liquid tank protection and its application in ship protection.

Structural Reliability Analysis Method for Assessing the Fatigue Capacity of Subsea Wellhead Connectors

Subsea Wellheads are the male part of an 18 3/4” bore connector used for connecting subsea components such as drilling BOP, XT or Workover systems equipped with a female counterpart — a wellhead connector. Subsea wellheads have an external locking profile for engaging a preloaded wellhead connector with matching internal profile. As such connection is made subsea, a metal-to-metal sealing is obtained, and a structural conduit is formed. The details of the subsea wellhead profile are specified by the wellhead user and the standardized H4 hub has a widespread use. In terms of well integrity, the wellhead connector is a barrier element during both well construction (drilling) activities and life of field (production). Due to the nature of subsea drilling operations, a wellhead connector will be subjected to external loads. Fatigue and plastic collapse due to overload are therefore two potential failure modes. These two failure modes are due to the cyclic nature of the loads and the potential for accidental and extreme single loads respectively. The safe load the wellhead connector can sustain without failure can be established by deterministic structural capacity methods. This paper outlines how a generic and probabilistic engineering method; Structural Reliability Analysis, can be applied to a subsea wellhead connector to estimate the probability of fatigue failure (PoF). As the wellhead connector is a mechanism consisting of a plurality of parts the load effect from cyclic external loads is influenced by uncertainty in friction, geometry and pre-load. Further, there is a inter dependence between these parameters that complicates the problem. In addition to these uncertainties, uncertainties in the fatigue loading itself (from rig and riser) is also accounted for. This paper presents results from applications of Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to a wellhead connector and provides experiences and learnings from this case work.