Determination of Short Term Extreme Response Values for Temporary Riser Systems: A Practical Approach

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Cetin ◽  
Trond Pytte ◽  
Sveinung Eriksrud
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Classical Method ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Rayleigh Distribution ◽  
Relevant Variable ◽  
Extreme Response ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Probability Modelling

Operation limits for temporary riser system are determined according to some probability of exceedance of a relevant variable. Accordingly, consistent statistical analysis and probability modelling of the data is required. The common industry approach is to rely on the classical narrow-banded Gaussian process assumption when considering time series of variables of interest. Thus, the time series peaks are characterized by means of the Rayleigh distribution and the relevant extreme values are estimated based on this. However, non-linearities present in riser systems may yield non-Gaussian (wide-banded) processes, rendering the classical approach inappropriate. In the present work, an approximate and practical method is presented to address above issue. It is demonstrated that the approximate method is capable of consistently estimating the relevant extreme values, even where the classical method comes short.

Extreme Response of Nonlinear Structures With Low Damping Subjected to Stochastic Loading

1999 ◽  
Vol 121 (4) ◽  
pp. 255-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Naess
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Values ◽  
Narrow Band ◽  
First Passage Times ◽  
Random Loading ◽  
First Passage ◽  
Stochastic Loading ◽  
Extreme Response ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Extreme Responses ◽  
Passage Times

The response of structures with low damping to random loading is generally characterized by significant clumping of the large response peaks. This clumping is known to affect the extreme responses of the structure. In the paper, we shall propose an approximate method to account for this effect on first passage times and extreme values of narrow-band random vibrations, both Gaussian and non-Gaussian. The method is based on the concept of joint crossing rates of a stochastic process. This makes it possible to introduce a correlation structure to the sequence of peak values, allowing the introduction of an approximate estimate of the effect of clumping on large excursions of the underlying narrow-band process. The advantage of the proposed method is that explicit, closed-form expressions for the clumping effect on first passage times and extreme values are obtained. The method is illustrated by application to specific examples.

Extreme Value Analysis of the Response of a Turret-Moored FPSO

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lui´s Volnei Sudati Sagrilo ◽  
Arvid Naess ◽  
Zhen Gao
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Coupled Analysis ◽  
System Response ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Utilization Factor ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Extreme Response

One of the standardized procedures used in the design of floating systems and their mooring and production lines is the so-called short-term design approach where the system is analyzed for some specific extreme environmental conditions. Along with this procedure, a nonlinear time-domain coupled dynamic analysis, considering the floater and its risers and mooring lines, is nowadays feasible to be employed in the design practice. One important and challenging aspect of this process is concerned with the estimation of the characteristic short-term extreme values of the system response parameters based on the sampled time-series. In this paper a common procedure used to establish these extreme values for floater system response parameters, which is based on a Weibull distribution model for the time-series peaks, is reviewed in the light of a recently proposed approach based on a general parametric model for the average conditional exceedance rate of peaks. It is shown that the former model corresponds to a particular case of the latter one. Numerical results are presented for the response parameters of a turret-moored FPSO considering a short-term coupled analysis of the whole system under an extreme environmental condition of wind, wave and current. Specifically, the extreme response of surge motion, top tension of the most loaded mooring line and DnV’s utilization factor for the most critical section of a 8″ SLWR (Steel Lazy Wave Riser) are investigated.

Extreme Response Prediction of Steel Risers Using a Four Parameter Distribution

2019 ◽  
Vol 141 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Alfonso Calderon Ibarra ◽  
Fernando Jorge Mendes de Sousa ◽  
Luís Volnei Sudati Sagrilo ◽  
Ying Min Low
Keyword(s):  
Water Depth ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Response Prediction ◽  
Parameter Distribution ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Offshore Engineering ◽  
Extreme Response ◽  
Hermite Transformation ◽  
Non Gaussian

Short-term extreme response estimates are required in many areas of ocean and offshore engineering, such as steel risers design. As in many cases, the response in non-Gaussian, a theoretical solution, is usually not readily available for this purpose. Hermite transformation and Weibull-based models, among others, are some alternatives that have been used in connection with sampled response time series. In this work, a new approach is investigated. Recently, a four-parameter distribution known as the shifted generalized lognormal distribution (SGLD) has been presented in the literature. One of its main advantages is that it covers regions of skewness–kurtosis not covered by other distributions of common use in engineering. In this paper, the performance of this distribution is evaluated in the extreme values' estimation of the utilization ratios of steel riser sections. Three alternatives for using SGLD are investigated in two case studies of different dynamic behavior. The first one is a steel-lazy wave riser (SLWR) connected to a turret-moored FPSO (floating, production, storage and offloading unit) in 914 m water depth, and the second is a SLWR connected to a spread-mooring FPSO in a water depth of 1400 m. The results obtained by the SGLD-based analysis, which considered several simulation lengths, are compared to those obtained by means of an extreme value distribution fitted to episodical extremes obtained from many distinct realizations. The results of a traditional Weibull-fitting approach to the response peaks and those obtained with a Hermite transformation-based model are also presented for comparison.

On the Extreme Value Analysis of the Response of a Turret Moored FPSO

2012 ◽  
Vol 134 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
L. V. S. Sagrilo ◽  
A. Naess ◽  
Z. Gao
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Coupled Analysis ◽  
System Response ◽  
Outer Diameter ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Utilization Factor ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Extreme Response

One of the standardized procedures used in the design of floating systems and their mooring and production lines is the so-called short-term design approach where the system is analyzed for some specific extreme environmental conditions. Along with this procedure, a nonlinear time-domain coupled dynamic analysis, considering the floater and its risers and mooring lines, can nowadays be incorporated as a feasible part of the design practice. One very important and challenging aspect of this process is concerned with the estimation of the characteristic short-term extreme values of the system response parameters based on the sampled time-series. In this paper a common procedure used to establish these extreme values for floater system response parameters, which is based upon a Weibull distribution model for the peaks of the time-series, is reviewed in the light of a recently proposed approach based on a general parametric model for the average conditional exceedance rate of peaks. It is shown that the former model corresponds to a particular case of the latter one. Numerical results are presented for the response parameters of a turret-moored Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) unit considering a short-term coupled analysis of the whole system under an extreme environmental condition of wind, wave, and current. Specifically, the extreme response of surge motion, top tension of the most loaded mooring line, and Det norske Veritas (DnV) codes utilization factor for the most critical section of an 0.20 m outer diameter SLWR (steel lazy wave riser) are investigated.

EXTREME VALUES OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-PERIOD PHENOMENA OCCURRED DURING 1960-2015 IN THE COLOMBIAN PACIFIC OCEAN

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diaz Juan Navia ◽  
Diaz Juan Navia ◽  
Bolaños Nancy Villegas ◽  
Bolaños Nancy Villegas ◽  
Igor Malikov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Absolute Maximum ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Arctic Oscillation Index ◽  
Colombian Pacific

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA), in four coastal hydrographic stations of Colombian Pacific Ocean, were analyzed. The selected hydrographic stations were: Tumaco (1°48'N-78°45'W), Gorgona island (2°58'N-78°11'W), Solano Bay (6°13'N-77°24'W) and Malpelo island (4°0'N-81°36'W). SSTA time series for 1960-2015 were calculated from monthly Sea Surface Temperature obtained from International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). SSTA time series, Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO), Arctic Oscillation index (AO) and sunspots number (associated to solar activity), were compared. It was found that the SSTA absolute minimum has occurred in Tumaco (-3.93°C) in March 2009, in Gorgona (-3.71°C) in October 2007, in Solano Bay (-4.23°C) in April 2014 and Malpelo (-4.21°C) in December 2005. The SSTA absolute maximum was observed in Tumaco (3.45°C) in January 2002, in Gorgona (5.01°C) in July 1978, in Solano Bay (5.27°C) in March 1998 and Malpelo (3.64°C) in July 2015. A high correlation between SST and ONI in large part of study period, followed by a good correlation with PDO, was identified. The AO and SSTA have showed an inverse relationship in some periods. Solar Cycle has showed to be a modulator of behavior of SSTA in the selected stations. It was determined that extreme values of SST are related to the analyzed large scale oscillations.

New determinations of tides on the north-western Ross Ice Shelf

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Richard D. Ray ◽  
Kristine M. Larson ◽  
Bruce J. Haines
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ross Ice Shelf ◽  
The North ◽  
Global Positioning ◽  
North Western

Abstract New determinations of ocean tides are extracted from high-rate Global Positioning System (GPS) solutions at nine stations sitting on the Ross Ice Shelf. Five are multi-year time series. Three older time series are only 2–3 weeks long. These are not ideal, but they are still useful because they provide the only in situ tide observations in that sector of the ice shelf. The long tide-gauge observations from Scott Base and Cape Roberts are also reanalysed. They allow determination of some previously neglected tidal phenomena in this region, such as third-degree tides, and they provide context for analysis of the shorter datasets. The semidiurnal tides are small at all sites, yet M2 undergoes a clear seasonal cycle, which was first noted by Sir George Darwin while studying measurements from the Discovery expedition. Darwin saw a much larger modulation than we observe, and we consider possible explanations - instrumental or climatic - for this difference.

scholarly journals Landslide geometry and activity in Villa de la Independencia (Bolivia) revealed by InSAR and seismic noise measurements

Landslides ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuang Song ◽  
Chen Yu ◽  
Zhenhong Li ◽  
Veronica Pazzi ◽  
Matteo Del Soldato ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Seismic Noise ◽  
Slip Surface ◽  
Inversion Method ◽  
Subsurface Structures ◽  
Slip Surfaces ◽  
Landslide Volume ◽  
Noise Measurements ◽  
Landslide Body

AbstractInterferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) enables detailed investigation of surface landslide movements, but it cannot provide information about subsurface structures. In this work, InSAR measurements were integrated with seismic noise in situ measurements to analyse both the surface and subsurface characteristics of a complex slow-moving landslide exhibiting multiple failure surfaces. The landslide body involves a town of around 6000 inhabitants, Villa de la Independencia (Bolivia), where extensive damages to buildings have been observed. To investigate the spatial-temporal characteristics of the landslide motion, Sentinel-1 displacement time series from October 2014 to December 2019 were produced. A new geometric inversion method is proposed to determine the best-fit sliding direction and inclination of the landslide. Our results indicate that the landslide is featured by a compound movement where three different blocks slide. This is further evidenced by seismic noise measurements which identified that the different dynamic characteristics of the three sub-blocks were possibly due to the different properties of shallow and deep slip surfaces. Determination of the slip surface depths allows for estimating the overall landslide volume (9.18 · 107 m3). Furthermore, Sentinel-1 time series show that the landslide movements manifest substantial accelerations in early 2018 and 2019, coinciding with increased precipitations in the late rainy season which are identified as the most likely triggers of the observed accelerations. This study showcases  the potential of integrating InSAR and seismic noise techniques to understand the landslide mechanism from ground to subsurface.

scholarly journals How to correctly apply Gaussian statistics in a non-stationary climate?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhold Steinacker
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Actual Data ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Climatic Trend ◽  
Filter Methods ◽  
Periodic Time Series ◽  
Past Data

AbstractTime series with a significant trend, as is now being the case for the temperature in the course of climate change, need a careful approach for statistical evaluations. Climatological means and moments are usually taken from past data which means that the statistics does not fit to actual data anymore. Therefore, we need to determine the long-term trend before comparing actual data with the actual climate. This is not an easy task, because the determination of the signal—a climatic trend—is influenced by the random scatter of observed data. Different filter methods are tested upon their quality to obtain realistic smoothed trends of observed time series. A new method is proposed, which is based on a variational principle. It outperforms other conventional methods of smoothing, especially if periodic time series are processed. This new methodology is used to test, how extreme the temperature of 2018 in Vienna actually was. It is shown that the new annual temperature record of 2018 is not too extreme, if we consider the positive trend of the last decades. Also, the daily mean temperatures of 2018 are not found to be really extreme according to the present climate. The real extreme of the temperature record of Vienna—and many other places around the world—is the strongly increased positive temperature trend over the last years.

scholarly journals A Study of OWA Operators Learned in Convolutional Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 7195
Author(s):  
Iris Dominguez-Catena ◽  
Daniel Paternain ◽  
Mikel Galar
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Convolutional Neural Networks ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Local Information ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Global Information ◽  
Owa Operator ◽  
Owa Operators ◽  
Ordered Weighted Averaging

Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) operators have been integrated in Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for image classification through the OWA layer. This layer lets the CNN integrate global information about the image in the early stages, where most CNN architectures only allow for the exploitation of local information. As a side effect of this integration, the OWA layer becomes a practical method for the determination of OWA operator weights, which is usually a difficult task that complicates the integration of these operators in other fields. In this paper, we explore the weights learned for the OWA operators inside the OWA layer, characterizing them through their basic properties of orness and dispersion. We also compare them to some families of OWA operators, namely the Binomial OWA operator, the Stancu OWA operator and the exponential RIM OWA operator, finding examples that are currently impossible to generalize through these parameterizations.

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