scholarly journals Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. eaaw5531 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Bevacqua ◽  
D. Maraun ◽  
M. I. Vousdoukas ◽  
E. Voukouvalas ◽  
M. Vrac ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Potential Hazard ◽  
European Regions ◽  
Northern European ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Climate Projections ◽  
European Coast

In low-lying coastal areas, the co-occurrence of high sea level and precipitation resulting in large runoff may cause compound flooding (CF). When the two hazards interact, the resulting impact can be worse than when they occur individually. Both storm surges and heavy precipitation, as well as their interplay, are likely to change in response to global warming. Despite the CF relevance, a comprehensive hazard assessment beyond individual locations is missing, and no studies have examined CF in the future. Analyzing co-occurring high sea level and heavy precipitation in Europe, we show that the Mediterranean coasts are experiencing the highest CF probability in the present. However, future climate projections show emerging high CF probability along parts of the northern European coast. In several European regions, CF should be considered as a potential hazard aggravating the risk caused by mean sea level rise in the future.

scholarly journals Coastal Floods Induced by Mean Sea Level Rise—Ecological and Socioeconomic Impacts on a Mesotidal Lagoon

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1430
Author(s):  
Francisco Silveira ◽  
Carina Lurdes Lopes ◽  
João Pedro Pinheiro ◽  
Humberto Pereira ◽  
João Miguel Dias
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Ria De Aveiro ◽  
The Future ◽  
Coastal Floods ◽  
Agricultural Areas

Coastal floods are currently a strong threat to socioeconomic activities established on the margins of lagoons and estuaries, as well as to their ecological equilibrium, a situation that is expected to become even more worrying in the future in a climate change context. The Ria de Aveiro lagoon, located on the northwest coast of Portugal, is not an exception to these threats, especially considering the low topography of its margins which has led to several flood events in the past. The growing concerns with these regions stem from the mean sea level (MSL) rise induced by climate changes as well as the amplification of the impacts of storm surge events, which are predicted to increase in the future due to higher mean sea levels. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the influence of MSL rise on the inundation of Ria de Aveiro habitats and to assess the changes in inundation patterns resulting from frequent storm surges (2-year return period) from the present to the future, assessing their ecological and socioeconomic impacts. For this, a numerical model (Delft3D), previously calibrated and validated, was used to simulate the lagoon hydrodynamics under different scenarios combining MSL rise and frequent storm surge events. The numerical results demonstrated that MSL rise can change the vertical zonation and threaten the local habitats. Many areas of the lagoon may change from supratidal/intertidal to intertidal/subtidal, with relevant consequences for local species. The increase in MSL expected for the end of the century could make the lagoon more vulnerable to the effect of frequent storm surges, harming mostly agricultural areas, causing great losses for this sector and for many communities who depend on it. These extreme events can also affect artificialized areas and, in some cases, endanger lives.

Future Projections of Heat Mortality Risk for Major European Cities due to Heat Waves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexia Karwat ◽  
Christian L. E. Franzke
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Climate Projections

<p>Over the last few decades heat waves have intensified, become more common, pose severe health risks, especially in densely populated cities, and have led to excess mortality. While the probability of being adversely affected by heat stress has significantly increased over the last few decades, the risk of heat mortality is rarely quantified. This quantification of heat mortality risk is necessary for systematic adaptation measures. Furthermore, heat mortality records are sparse and short, which presents a challenge for assessing heat mortality risk for future climate projections. It is therefore crucial to derive indicators for a systematic heat mortality risk assessment. Here, risk indicators based on temperature and mortality data are developed and applied to major cities in Germany, France and Spain, using regional climate model simulations. These simulations have biases of up to 3°C with respect to observations and, thus, need to be bias-corrected. Bias-corrected daily maximum, minimum and wet-bulb temperatures show increasing trends in future climate projections for most considered cities. Additionally, we derive a relationship of daily maximum temperatures and mortality for producing future projections of heat mortality risk due to extreme temperatures based on low (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenario future climate projections. Our results illustrate that heat mortality increases by about 0.9%/decade in Germany, 1.7%/decade in France and 7.9%/decade in Spain for RCP8.5 by 2050. The future climate projections also show that wet-bulb temperatures above 30°C will be reached regularly with maxima above 40°C likely by 2050. Our results suggest a significant increase of heat mortality in the future, especially in Spain. On average, our results indicate that the mortality risk trend is almost twice as high in all three countries for the RCP8.5 scenario compared to RCP2.6.</p>

scholarly journals Incorporating Future Climate Scenarios in Oil Industry’s Risk Assessment: A Greek Refinery Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 12825
Author(s):  
Theodoros Katopodis ◽  
Emmanuel D. Adamides ◽  
Athanasios Sfetsos ◽  
Antonios Mountouris
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Cooling System ◽  
Research Effort ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Future ◽  
Assessment Matrix ◽  
Future Climate Projections

The impacts of climate change are anticipated to become stronger in the future, leading to higher costs and more severe accidents in the oil industry’s facilities and surrounding communities. Motivated by this, the main objective of this paper is to develop, for the oil industry, a risk assessment methodology that considers future climate projections. In the context of an action research effort, carried out in a refinery in Greece, we adapted the organization’s extant risk management approach based on the Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM) and suggested a risk quantification process that incorporates future climate projections. The Climate Risk Assessment Matrix (CRAM) was developed to be used to assess the exposure of the facility’s assets, including human resources, to future climate risks. To evaluate CRAM, a comparison with RAM for the specific organization for the period 1980–2004 was made. Next, the application of CRAM for the period 2025–2049 indicated that, even though the resilience of the operations of the company to extreme conditions seems adequate at present, increased attention should be paid in the future to the resilience of refinery processes, the cooling system, and human resources. Beyond the specific case, the paper provides lessons for similar organizations and infrastructures located elsewhere.

scholarly journals Multi-hazard climate risk projections for the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Binita KC ◽  
J. M. Shepherd ◽  
Anthony W. King ◽  
Cassandra Johnson Gaither
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Multiple Hazards ◽  
Climate Hazards

Abstract Climate risk is a consequence of climate hazards, exposure, and the vulnerability (IPCC 2014). Here, we assess future (2040–2049) climate risk for the entire contiguous US at the county level with a novel climate risk index integrating multiple hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities. Future, weather and climate hazards are characterized as frequency of heat wave, cold spells, dryer, and heavy precipitation events along with anomalies of temperature and precipitation using high resolution (4 km) downscaled climate projections. Exposure is characterized by projections of population, infrastructure, and built surfaces prone to multiple hazards including sea level rise and storm surges. Vulnerability is characterized by projections of demographic groups most sensitive to climate hazards. We found Florida, California, the central Gulf Coast, and North Atlantic at high climate risk in the future. However, the contributions to this risk vary regionally. Florida is projected to be equally hard hit by the three components of climate risk. The coastal counties in the Gulf states of Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi and Alabama are at high climate risk due to high exposure and hazard. High exposure and vulnerability drive high climate risk in California counties. This approach can guide planners in targeting counties at most risk and where adaptation strategies to reduce exposure or protect vulnerable populations might be best applied.

Geospatial Risk Assessment of Marine Terminal Infrastructure to Storm Surge Inundation and Sea Level Rise

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (11) ◽  
pp. 19-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
George M. McLeod ◽  
Thomas R. Allen ◽  
Joshua G. Behr
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Risk Tolerance ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Rapid Screening ◽  
Tidal Flooding ◽  
The Future

Planning resiliency and sustainability of port operations and critical infrastructure requires risk assessment of storm surge exposure and potential sea level rise. An approach for rapid, screening-level assessment is developed to estimate the current and future risk of exposure to severe storm surges posed to marine terminal facilities in Norfolk, Virginia. The approach estimates the vertical elevation of local mean sea level fifty years into the future and attendant increases in potential storm surge heights. Inundation models are designed for baseline water levels and storm surges for category 1–3 hurricanes across five precautionary future sea level rise scenarios. In addition, tidal flooding poses an emerging threat because sea level rise will also force tides to higher elevations, suggesting that today’s extreme high tides may be the future mean high tide and today’s “nuisance” tidal flooding may in the future recur with chronic regularity. Potential tidal flooding levels are also modeled for each sea level scenario. This approach allows a port to assess relative risk tolerance across the range from lesser to more severe flooding events. Maps and tabular information in linked scenarios are used to summarize the extent, pattern, and depth of potential flooding. The methodology and data developed in this study may be applied to inform the timing and placement of planned assets and can be leveraged in the broader pursuit of optimization in support of long-term master planning at marine terminals.

scholarly journals Extremes floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piero Lionello ◽  
David Barriopedro ◽  
Christian Ferrarin ◽  
Robert J. Nicholls ◽  
Mirko Orlic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Large Range ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Floods in the Venice city centre result from the superposition of several factors: astronomical tides, seiches and atmospherically forced fluctuations, which include storm surges, meteotsunamis, and surges caused by planetary waves. All these factors can contribute to positive sea-level anomalies individually and can also result in extreme sea-level events when they act constructively. The largest extreme sea level events have been mostly caused by storm surges produced by the Sirocco winds. This leads to a characteristic seasonal cycle, with the largest and most frequent events occurring from November to March. Storm surges can be produced by cyclones whose centers are located either north or south of the Alps. The most intense historical events have been produced by cyclogenesis in the western Mediterranean, to the west of the main cyclogenetic area of the Mediterranean region in the Gulf of Genoa. Only a small fraction of the interannual variability of extreme sea levels is described by fluctuations in the dominant patterns of atmospheric circulation variability over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Therefore, decadal fluctuations of sea-level extremes remain largely unexplained. In particular, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle appears to be small, non-stationary or masked by other factors. The historic increase in the frequency of extreme sea levels since the mid 19th Century is explained by relative sea level rise, with no long term trend in the intensity of the atmospheric forcing. Analogously, future regional relative mean sea level rise will be the most important driver of increasing duration and intensity of Venice floods through this century, overwhelming the small decrease in marine storminess projected during the 21 century. Consequently, the future increase of extreme sea levels covers a large range, partly reflecting the highly uncertain mass contributions to future mean sea level rise from the melting of Antarctica and Greenland ice-sheets, especially towards the end of the century. In conclusion, for a high emission scenario the magnitude of 1-in-100 year sea level events at the North Adriatic coast is projected to increase up to 65 % and 160 % in 2050 and 2100, respectively, with respect to the present value, and subject to continued increase thereafter. Local subsidence can further contribute to the future increase of extreme sea levels. This analysis shows the need for adaptive planning of coastal defenses with solutions that can be adopted to face the large range of plausible future sea-level extremes.

scholarly journals Future Projections of Heat Mortality Risk for Major European Cities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexia Karwat ◽  
Christian L. E. Franzke
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Climate Projections

AbstractOver the last few decades heat waves have intensified and have led to excess mortality. While the probability of being affected by heat stress has significantly increased, the risk of heat mortality is rarely quantified. This quantification of heat mortality risk is necessary for systematic adaptation measures. Furthermore, heat mortality records are sparse and short, which presents a challenge for assessing heat mortality risk for future climate projections. It is therefore crucial to derive indicators for a systematic heat mortality risk assessment. Here, risk indicators based on temperature and mortality data are developed and applied to major cities in Germany, France and Spain, using regional climate model simulations. Bias-corrected daily maximum, minimum and wet-bulb temperatures show increasing trends in future climate projections for most considered cities. Additionally, we derive a relationship between daily maximum temperatures and mortality for producing future projections of heat mortality risk due to extreme temperatures based on low (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenario future climate projections. Our results illustrate that heat mortality increases by about 0.9%/decade in Germany, 1.7%/decade in France and 7.9%/decade in Spain for RCP8.5 by 2050. The future climate projections also show that wet-bulb temperatures above 30°C will be reached regularly with maxima above 40°C likely by 2050. Our results suggest a significant increase of heat mortality in the future, especially in Spain. On average, our results indicate that the mortality risk trend is almost twice as high in all three countries for the RCP8.5 scenario compared to RCP2.6.

scholarly journals Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article)

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 2705-2731 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piero Lionello ◽  
David Barriopedro ◽  
Christian Ferrarin ◽  
Robert J. Nicholls ◽  
Mirko Orlić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Northern Adriatic ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Water Height

Abstract. Floods in the Venice city centre result from the superposition of several factors: astronomical tides; seiches; and atmospherically forced fluctuations, which include storm surges, meteotsunamis, and surges caused by atmospheric planetary waves. All these factors can contribute to positive water height anomalies individually and can increase the probability of extreme events when they act constructively. The largest extreme water heights are mostly caused by the storm surges produced by the sirocco winds, leading to a characteristic seasonal cycle, with the largest and most frequent events occurring from November to March. Storm surges can be produced by cyclones whose centres are located either north or south of the Alps. Historically, the most intense events have been produced by cyclogenesis in the western Mediterranean, to the west of the main cyclogenetic area of the Mediterranean region in the Gulf of Genoa. Only a small fraction of the inter-annual variability in extreme water heights is described by fluctuations in the dominant patterns of atmospheric circulation variability over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Therefore, decadal fluctuations in water height extremes remain largely unexplained. In particular, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle does not appear to be steadily present if more than 100 years of observations are considered. The historic increase in the frequency of floods since the mid-19th century is explained by relative mean sea level rise. Analogously, future regional relative mean sea level rise will be the most important driver of increasing duration and intensity of Venice floods through this century, overcompensating for the small projected decrease in marine storminess. The future increase in extreme water heights covers a wide range, largely reflecting the highly uncertain mass contributions to future mean sea level rise from the melting of Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets, especially towards the end of the century. For a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), the magnitude of 1-in-100-year water height values at the northern Adriatic coast is projected to increase by 26–35 cm by 2050 and by 53–171 cm by 2100 with respect to the present value and is subject to continued increase thereafter. For a moderate-emission scenario (RCP4.5), these values are 12–17 cm by 2050 and 24–56 cm by 2100. Local subsidence (which is not included in these estimates) will further contribute to the future increase in extreme water heights. This analysis shows the need for adaptive long-term planning of coastal defences using flexible solutions that are appropriate across the large range of plausible future water height extremes.

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