scholarly journals Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019: old and new predictions

BMJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. m3588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ken Rice ◽  
Ben Wynne ◽  
Victoria Martin ◽  
Graeme J Ackland
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Advisory Group ◽  
School Closures ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Age Profile ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Summary Data

Abstract Objective To replicate and analyse the information available to UK policymakers when the lockdown decision was taken in March 2020 in the United Kingdom. Design Independent calculations using the CovidSim code, which implements Imperial College London’s individual based model, with data available in March 2020 applied to the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) epidemic. Setting Simulations considering the spread of covid-19 in Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Population About 70 million simulated people matched as closely as possible to actual UK demographics, geography, and social behaviours. Main outcome measures Replication of summary data on the covid-19 epidemic reported to the UK government Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), and a detailed study of unpublished results, especially the effect of school closures. Results The CovidSim model would have produced a good forecast of the subsequent data if initialised with a reproduction number of about 3.5 for covid-19. The model predicted that school closures and isolation of younger people would increase the total number of deaths, albeit postponed to a second and subsequent waves. The findings of this study suggest that prompt interventions were shown to be highly effective at reducing peak demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds but also prolong the epidemic, in some cases resulting in more deaths long term. This happens because covid-19 related mortality is highly skewed towards older age groups. In the absence of an effective vaccination programme, none of the proposed mitigation strategies in the UK would reduce the predicted total number of deaths below 200 000. Conclusions It was predicted in March 2020 that in response to covid-19 a broad lockdown, as opposed to a focus on shielding the most vulnerable members of society, would reduce immediate demand for ICU beds at the cost of more deaths long term. The optimal strategy for saving lives in a covid-19 epidemic is different from that anticipated for an influenza epidemic with a different mortality age profile.

scholarly journals Prospects and challenges for an Indian dermatologist in the United Kingdom

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 75-78
Author(s):  
Sheerja Bali ◽  
Asha Rajeev
Keyword(s):  
Professional Development ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Continuing Professional Development ◽  
General Medical Council ◽  
Medical Council ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Career Options ◽  
The Cost

The United Kingdom is a sought-after destination to gain overseas experience and long-term employment for doctors trained in India. However, for many the path is unclear. This article aims to explain the various opportunities and the steps involved in securing a job in the National Health Service (NHS) for an Indian dermatologist. The steps to obtain the General Medical Council license to practice include demonstrating competency in English and passing the Professional and Linguistic Assessments Board examinations. Once the doctor is eligible to practice, career options are working as Core Medical trainee, Staff grade and Associate Specialists and Specialty doctors (SAS) or a locum consultant. One can become a consultant in the UK without retraining in dermatology through Certificate of Eligibility for Specialist Registration. In the NHS, a dermatologist typically works for 8 h a day on the weekdays. Time is allotted for professional development through the Continuing Professional Development sessions. Doctors earn well in the UK although the cost of living is high.

Age profile of NHS workers in occupational physician clinics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
W A Telling
Keyword(s):  
Older Workers ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Occupational Physician ◽  
Long Term Conditions ◽  
Occupational Outcomes ◽  
Younger Workers ◽  
Occupational Outcome ◽  
Age Profile ◽  
The Uk

Abstract Background The population in the UK is predicted to increase in size and age. The National Health Service (NHS) is the largest employer in the UK and demographic changes in the working population would be expected to be reflected in the NHS workforce. Such changes may present different challenges to an NHS occupational physician (OP). Aims To evaluate how the age profile of an NHS workforce is reflected in referral patterns, diagnoses and occupational outcomes for workers assessed by OPs. Methods NHS workers employed by a large acute Trust who were referred to an OP for assessment during 2011–12 were identified. Occupational health data relating to their assessment were analysed to investigate relationships with age. Results Seven hundred and two workers were identified; they were from all staff and age groups employed by the NHS Trust. The highest referral rate to an OP was in staff aged between 41 and 60 years. There was no evidence that workers with long-term conditions assessed by an OP were likely to be older. The occupational outcome of ill-health retirement was linked to age. Conclusions This study suggested that older workers, aged between 41 and 60 years, may be more likely to be referred for assessment by an OP than younger workers. The only occupational outcome linked to age was ill-health retirement, which was more likely for workers over 50 years of age.

scholarly journals Language Legislation and Policy in the uk and Ireland: Different Aspects of Territoriality in a ‘Celtic’ Context

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 454-484 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Dunbar
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Language Policy ◽  
Indigenous Languages ◽  
Scottish Gaelic ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Language Legislation ◽  
The Uk

In spite of the long-term dominance in Britain and Ireland of English, other indigenous languages continue to be spoken, and in relatively recent years several of those languages have benefited not only from a more coherent and supportive language policy but also from significant language legislation. One of the interesting features of these other indigenous languages is that, although strongly associated with rural ‘heartlands’ in the particular jurisdictions with which they are associated, they are also spoken in other parts of those jurisdictions, and, indeed, in other parts of the United Kingdom and Ireland. In this article, the ways in which the concept of territoriality has impacted upon legislation and on broader policy for two of these languages, Irish and Scottish Gaelic, will be considered.

Transmission dynamics and mechanisms of endemicity of scrapie in the UK sheep population

2008 ◽  
Vol 137 (6) ◽  
pp. 762-774 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. E. TRUSCOTT ◽  
N. M. FERGUSON
Keyword(s):  
Structural Diversity ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies ◽  
Spongiform Encephalopathies ◽  
Sheep Population ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Uk

SUMMARYScrapie is a fatal neurological disease of sheep which is endemic in the United Kingdom. It is one of the family of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) that includes BSE. In this paper, we developed a micro-simulation model for scrapie in the UK sheep population, incorporating the genetic and structural diversity of the population and infectious contact between flocks through trading. The simulation was fitted to epidemiological data from a range of sources. We found a detection/reporting probability of 16% (95% CI 12–17) for animals dying of scrapie. Prevalence of infected animals in the population was about 0·15%. Infected individuals were found in 9% of flocks overall, rising to 60% in Shetland and 75% in Swaledale flocks. Mean values of R0 for flocks varied with breed from 2·43 (Shetland) to 0·21 (Suffolk). We also examined the possible long-term persistence of scrapie in the UK flock in the absence of any intervention.

scholarly journals Content analysis for <i>Agricultural Records</i> of the United Kingdom, AD 200 to 1977: a study of frequency in human records concerning climate phenomenon

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 2555-2577
Author(s):  
D. H. Holt
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Weather Phenomenon ◽  
Continuous Record ◽  
Frequency Occurrence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Climate Events

Abstract. A content analysis has been completed on a text from the UK that has gathered agricultural and climate data from the years AD 220 to 1977 from 100s of sources. The content analysis coded all references to climate and agriculture to ascertain which climate events were recorded and which were not. This study addressed the question: is there bias in human records of climate? This evaluated the continuous record (AD 1654–1977), discontinous record (AD 220–1653), the whole record (AD 220–1977), the Little Climate Optimum (AD 850–1250) and the Little Ice Age (AD 1450–1880). This study shows that there is no significant variation in any of these periods in frequency occurrence of "good" or "bad" climate suggesting humans are not recording long-term changes in climate, but they are recording weather phenomenon as it occurs.

scholarly journals A Comparative Survey Of Capital Investment Decision Practices In The United States And The United Kingdom

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Klammer ◽  
Neil Wilner ◽  
Jan Smolarski
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
The United States ◽  
Capital Expenditures ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Management Techniques ◽  
Comparative Survey ◽  
The Uk

Capital expenditures can be crucial to firms long-term success, especially in a complex global environment. As companies increasingly compete in the global market place, it is important to study project evaluation processes from an international perspective. Capital investments involve substantial monetary commitments and risks that affect long-term firm profitability and influence capital allocation decisions in the future. Survey research in the area of capital expenditure analysis has been extensively done in both the United States [US] and the United Kingdom [UK]. This research is the first comparative survey of practices in both countries that we are aware of. A direct comparison of the use of project evaluation, management science, and risk management techniques in the two countries is made. The survey instrument used is an adaptation of the Klammer [1970] instrument that has been used repeatedly in surveys of American firms. This is the first time that it has been applied to British firms. The use of a common instrument allows for more meaningful comparisons. The samples consisted of 127 American and 59 British firms with sales of at least $100 million and capital expenditures of at least $10 million. Preliminary results indicate a continued extensive use of discounted cash flow techniques by US firms. Techniques such as payback or urgency continue to be used, but to a lesser degree than discounting. Firms in the UK also make extensive use of discounting but do so to a lesser degree than their American counterparts. Payback is widely used in the UK. Risk management techniques are widely used in both countries, with sensitivity analysis being the most popular technique in both countries. Extensive use of technical and administrative procedures, such as detailed budgets, standardized forms and post-audits, are evidenced in both countries. The paper offers reasons that have to do with organizational structure and form, as well as market differences, to explain our results.

scholarly journals Heterogeneous Mental Health Development During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lea Ellwardt ◽  
Patrick Praeg
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Psychological Distress ◽  
Latent Class ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Social Lives ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Uk

Aim. The COVID-19 pandemic and the mitigation measures by governments have upended the economic and social lives of many, leading to widespread psychological distress. However, how distress developed during the pandemic and who was most affected is poorly understood. We explore heterogeneity in trajectories of psychological distress during the first six months of the pandemic in the United Kingdom and relate this heterogeneity to socio-demographic and health factors. Subjects and Methods. We analyze six waves of longitudinal, nationally representative survey data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (N = 15,218), covering the first lockdown in 2020. First, latent class mixture modelling (LCCM) is used to identify trajectories of psychological distress. Second, associations of the trajectories with covariates are tested with multinomial logistic regressions. Results. We find four different trajectories of distress: continuously low, continuously moderate, temporarily elevated, and continuously elevated distress. One-fifth of the population experienced severely elevated risks of distress. Long-term exposure was highest among younger people, women, those who lost income, and those with previous health conditions or COVID-19 symptoms. Conclusion. Given the threat of persistent stress on health, policy measures should be sensitized to the unintended yet far-reaching consequences of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

The Importance of Convention Status: A Case Study of the UK

2001 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Bloch
Keyword(s):  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
Economic Rights ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Refugees And Asylum Seekers ◽  
Social And Economic Rights

Convention status accords refugees social and economic rights and security of residence in European countries of asylum. However, the trend in Europe has been to prevent asylum seekers reaching its borders, to reduce the rights of asylum seekers in countries of asylum and to use temporary protection as a means of circumventing the responsibility of long-term resettlement. This paper will provide a case study of the United Kingdom. It will examine the social and economic rights afforded to different statuses in the areas of social security, housing, employment and family reunion. It will explore the interaction of social and economic rights and security of residence on the experiences of those seeking protection. Drawing on responses to the crisis in Kosovo and on data from a survey of 180 refugees and asylum seekers in London it will show the importance of Convention status and the rights and security the status brings.

The French sheep industry from farm to table

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 39-43
Author(s):  
J. Barber
Keyword(s):  
Point Of View ◽  
Market Potential ◽  
High Price ◽  
Flock Size ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
High Street ◽  
Sheep Production ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Economic Constraints

AbstractLamb is perceived in an excellent manner in France, conjuring up the image of ‘feast day meat’, which is ‘natural’, mixed with a ‘regional flavour’. Historically lamb in France has been regarded as a meat for special occasions and has carried a high price tag. This price tag is less expensive than it used to be, especially with supermarkets and hypermarkets taking between 50 and 60% of the retail market. Lamb meat is now available to all at a (relatively) low price; a meat which is still regarded as ‘special’.Lamb consumption is increasing in France; in 1988 by an estimated 4%. This is largely due to price, good marketing and very good presentation — in the supermarkets, by top quality high-street butchers and in older traditional country markets. Consumption of lamb has increased by approximately 85 000 t in the last 15 years. French production has been decreasing by about 4% per year over recent years, and France imported 63 500 t in 1984 of which 36 000 came from the United Kingdom (UK). In 1987, 108 200 t were imported, of which 60 000 t came from the UK.There is a greater market potential for lamb in France than her producers can provide. One reason for this is that there are 190 000 producers with 8.15 million ewes; an average flock size of 42. This compares with the UK which has less than half the number of producers, with double the numbers of breeding sheep, and an average flock size nearly five times the size of French flocks.From the long-term point of view, not only is a large number of the flocks too small to be viable in competition with UK producers in the European Community but a high proportion of flock owners tend to be elderly. Sheep production is taking place in areas which are difficult to farm and on small units which are difficult to expand, either because of land law restriction or through economic constraints.

11. The United Kingdom: Towards a Parting of the Ways

2020 ◽  
pp. 257-279
Author(s):  
Anand Menon ◽  
Luigi Scazzieri
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Institutional Development ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Integration Process ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
History Of ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Uk

This chapter examines the history of the United Kingdom’s relationship with the European integration process. The chapter dissects the long-term trends in public opinion and the more contingent, short-term factors that led to the referendum vote to leave the European Union. The UK was a late joiner and therefore unable to shape the early institutional development of the EEC. British political parties and public opinion were always ambiguous about membership and increasingly Eurosceptic from the early 1990s. Yet the UK had a significant impact on the EU’s development, in the development of the single market programme and eastward enlargement. If Brexit goes through, Britain will nevertheless maintain relations with the EU in all policy areas from agriculture to energy and foreign policy. Europeanization will remain a useful theoretical tool to analyse EU–UK relations even if the UK leaves the Union.

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