Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios

ObjectivesAs of 13 January 2021, there have been 3 113 963 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 74 619 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progression of disease and potential impact of different interventions are needed to inform policymaking decisions. Herein, we model the possible trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in 52 African countries under different intervention scenarios.DesignWe developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to estimate the COVID-19 case burden for all African countries while considering four scenarios: no intervention, moderate lockdown, hard lockdown and hard lockdown with continued restrictions once lockdown is lifted. We further analysed the potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations affected by HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB).ResultsIn the absence of an intervention, the most populous countries had the highest peaks in active projected number of infections with Nigeria having an estimated 645 081 severe infections. The scenario with a hard lockdown and continued post-lockdown interventions to reduce transmission was the most efficacious strategy for delaying the time to the peak and reducing the number of cases. In South Africa, projected peak severe infections increase from 162 977 to 2 03 261, when vulnerable populations with HIV/AIDS and TB are included in the analysis.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading across the African continent. Estimates of the potential impact of interventions and burden of disease are essential for policymakers to make evidence-based decisions on the distribution of limited resources and to balance the economic costs of interventions with the potential for saving lives.

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Modeling COVID-19 Transmission in Africa: Country-wise Projections of Total and Severe Infections Under Different Lockdown Scenarios

10.1101/2020.09.04.20188102 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Isabel Frost ◽

Jessica Craig ◽

Gilbert Osena ◽

Stephanie Hauck ◽

Erta Kalanxhi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Vulnerable Populations ◽

Compartmental Model ◽

African Continent ◽

Economic Costs ◽

African Countries ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Progression Of Disease ◽

Severe Infections ◽

Potential Impact ◽

Hiv Aids

Objectives As of August 24th 2020, there have been 1,084,904 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 24,683 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progression of disease and potential impact of different interventions are needed to inform policy making decisions. Herein, we model the possible trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in 52 African countries under different intervention scenarios. Design We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to estimate the COVID-19 case burden for all African countries while considering four scenarios: no intervention, moderate lockdown, hard lockdown, and hard lockdown with continued restrictions once lockdown is lifted. We further analyzed the potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations affected by HIV/AIDS and TB. Results In the absence of an intervention, the most populous countries had the highest peaks in active projected number of infections with Nigeria having an estimated 645,081 severe infections. The scenario with a hard lockdown and continued post-lockdown interventions to reduce transmission was the most efficacious strategy for delaying the time to the peak and reducing the number of cases. In South Africa projected peak severe infections increase from 162,977 to 203,261, when vulnerable populations with HIV/AIDS and TB are included in the analysis. Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading across the African continent. Estimates of the potential impact of interventions and burden of disease are essential for policy makers to make evidence-based decisions on the distribution of limited resources and to balance the economic costs of interventions with the potential for saving lives.

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HIV/AIDS research in Africa and the Middle East: participation and equity in North-South collaborations and relationships.

10.21203/rs.2.20230/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Gregorio González-Alcaide ◽

Marouane Menchi-Elanzi ◽

Edy Nacarapa ◽

José-Manuel Ramos-Rincón

Keyword(s):

Middle East ◽

Scientific Activity ◽

Scientific Production ◽

African Continent ◽

African Countries ◽

Research Attention ◽

Global North ◽

Aids Research ◽

Public Health Epidemiology ◽

Hiv Aids

Abstract Background HIV/AIDS has attracted considerable research attention since the 1980s. In the current context of globalization and the predominance of cooperative work, it is crucial to analyze the participation of the countries and regions where the infection is most prevalent, African continent being the hardest hit (67.5% of estimated cases). This study assesses the participation of African countries in publications on the topic, as well as the degree of equity or influence existing in North-South relations.Methods We identified all articles and reviews of HIV/AIDS indexed in the Web of Science Core Collection. We analyzed the scientific production, collaboration, and contributions from African and Middle Eastern countries to scientific activity in the region. The concept of leadership was used to determine the equity in research produced through international collaboration.Results A total of 68,808 documents published from 2010 to 2017 were analyzed. Researchers from North America and Europe participated in 82.14% of the global scientific production on HIV/AIDS, compared to just 21.61% from Africa and the Middle East. Furthermore, the research that did come out of these regions was concentrated in a small number of countries, led by South Africa (41% of the documents). Other features associated with HIV/AIDS research from Africa include the importance of international collaboration from the USA, the UK, and other European countries (75%-93% of the documents) and the limited leadership that is evident (30% to 36% of the documents). Finally, the research to which African countries contributed had a notably different disciplinary orientation, with a predominance of research on public health, epidemiology, and drug therapy.Conclusions It is essential to foster more balance in research output, avoid the concentration of resources that reproduces the global North-South model on the African continent, and focus the research agenda on local priorities. To accomplish this, the global North should strengthen the transfer of research skills and seek equity in cooperative ties, favoring the empowerment of African countries. These efforts should be concentrated in countries with low scientific activity and high incidence and prevalence of the disease. It is also essential to foster intraregional collaborations between African countries.

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Introduction: Understanding and Responding to HIV/AIDS on the African Continent

Practicing Anthropology ◽

10.17730/praa.30.4.f418h60n1m70n762 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 30 (4) ◽

pp. 2-3

Author(s):

Gisele Maynard-Tucker ◽

Alexander Rödlach

Keyword(s):

Annual Meeting ◽

Health Workers ◽

Hiv Infections ◽

Applied Anthropology ◽

African Continent ◽

Ethical Considerations ◽

African Countries ◽

The Impact ◽

Hiv Aids

This issue of Practicing Anthropology brings together panel papers focusing on HIV/AIDS in Africa presented at the 67th Annual Meeting of the Society for Applied Anthropology in Tampa in 2007. These papers discuss various topics related to HIV/AIDS in different African countries: the association between gender and HIV infections, the consequences for the epidemic of the shortage of health workers, the importance of ethical considerations in developing protocols for HIV/AIDS interventions, local interpretations of, and reactions to, methods preventing new HIV infections, and the impact of resource insecurities on HIV/AIDS programs.

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HIV/AIDS research in Africa and the Middle East: participation and equity in North-South collaborations and relationships.

10.21203/rs.2.19193/v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Gregorio González-Alcaide ◽

Marouane Menchi-Elanzi ◽

Edy Nacarapa ◽

José-Manuel Ramos-Rincón

Keyword(s):

Middle East ◽

International Collaboration ◽

Scientific Activity ◽

Scientific Production ◽

African Continent ◽

African Countries ◽

Global North ◽

Aids Research ◽

Public Health Epidemiology ◽

Hiv Aids

Abstract Background: HIV/AIDS has attracted considerable research attention since the 1980s. In the current context of globalization and the predominance of cooperative work, it is crucial to analyze the participation of the countries and regions where the infection is most prevalent, African continent being the hardest hit (67.5% of estimated cases). This study assesses the participation of African countries in publications on the topic, as well as the degree of equity or influence existing in North-South relations.Methods : We identified all articles and reviews of HIV/AIDS indexed in the Web of Science Core Collection. We analyzed the scientific production, collaboration, and contributions from African and Middle Eastern countries to scientific activity in the region. The concept of leadership was used to determine the equity in research produced through international collaboration. Results: A total of 68,808 documents published from 2010 to 2017 were analyzed. Researchers from North America and Europe participated in 82.14% of the global scientific production on HIV/AIDS, compared to just 21.61% from Africa and the Middle East. Furthermore, the research that did come out of these regions was concentrated in a small number of countries, led by South Africa (41% of the documents). Other features associated with HIV/AIDS research from Africa include the importance of international collaboration from the USA, the UK, and other European countries (75%-93% of the documents) and the limited leadership that is evident (30% to 36% of the documents). Finally, the research to which African countries contributed had a notably different disciplinary orientation, with a predominance of research on public health, epidemiology, and drug therapy.Conclusions: It is essential to foster more balance in research output, avoid the concentration of resources that reproduces the global North-South model on the African continent, and focus the research agenda on local priorities. To accomplish this, the global North should strengthen the transfer of research skills and seek equity in cooperative ties, favoring the empowerment of African countries. These efforts should be concentrated in countries with low scientific activity and high incidence and prevalence of the disease. It is also essential to foster intraregional collaborations between African countries.

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How Researchers Define Vulnerable Populations in HIV/AIDS Clinical Trials

AIDS and Behavior ◽

10.1007/s10461-010-9785-x ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 14 (6) ◽

pp. 1313-1319 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Sohini Sengupta ◽

Bernard Lo ◽

Ronald P. Strauss ◽

Joseph Eron ◽

Allen L. Gifford

Keyword(s):

Clinical Trials ◽

Vulnerable Populations ◽

Aids Clinical Trials ◽

Hiv Aids

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Determinants influencing inbound arrivals to Africa

Tourism Economics ◽

10.1177/1354816618809840 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 25 (6) ◽

pp. 856-883 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Armand Viljoen ◽

Andrea Saayman ◽

Melville Saayman

Keyword(s):

Developed Countries ◽

African Continent ◽

African Countries ◽

Dynamic Panel ◽

Geographical Factors ◽

Telecommunication Infrastructure ◽

Foreign Tourism ◽

Tourism Arrivals

The goal of this research was to investigate the determinants that influence foreign tourism arrivals to the African continent, firstly as a collective and secondly in different regions, with the aim to foster a greater understanding of how African countries and regions can grow their tourism economies. Using static and dynamic panel estimators, two key findings were identified from this research: (1) tourism to the continent is influenced by income in developed countries, prices, telecommunication infrastructure and geographical factors as well as conservation efforts and (2) the regions in Africa do not all react the same to changes in these factors.

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In the Wake of TICAD V: Japan-Africa Relations Today

International Journal of Area Studies ◽

10.2478/ijas-2014-0010 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 153-173

Author(s):

István Tarrósy

Keyword(s):

International Relations ◽

Reference Point ◽

Inclusive Development ◽

Development Projects ◽

African Continent ◽

African Countries ◽

Bilateral Aid ◽

African Development ◽

Business Opportunities ◽

Major Donors

Abstract The paper looks at how Japan, one of the major donors of African countries, has been redefining its positions on the African continent in terms of bilateral aid and business opportunities, triangular collaboration and multilateral development projects in an increasingly ‘interpolar’ world of international relations. The discussion includes China's expanding presence all over Africa as an important ‘reference point’ for the Japanese public at large and how that may influence Japanese pragmatic foreign policy towards the continent and Japan's involvement in African development. What are Japan's priorities in the wake of hosting the fifth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD V) early in June 2013 in Yokohama? How does Japan go along with its confident manner of inclusive development and ownership in African societies when at the same time it is challenged by China and other emerging actors? What are the items on Japan's agenda for a re-intensified Africa policy?

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Prevalence of HIV-2 infection in Europe

Eurosurveillance ◽

10.2807/esm.01.03.00196-en ◽

1996 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

pp. 21-23 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

F Cazein ◽

F F Hamers ◽

J Alix ◽

J B Brunet

Keyword(s):

West African ◽

African Countries ◽

Aids Pandemic ◽

Hiv 1 ◽

Hiv Aids

The HIV/AIDS pandemic is primarily caused by HIV-1. Another type of virus, HIV-2, is found mainly in certain West African countries In Europe, most of the cases of HIV-2 infection described have been in people from Africa. The objective of this study was

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High speed internet development in Africa using 4G-LTE technology-a review

Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics ◽

10.11591/eei.v8i2.684 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 577-585

Author(s):

Mohamed Njikam ◽

Nanna S. ◽

Shahrin S. ◽

Mohd Fairuz Iskandar Othman

Keyword(s):

High Speed ◽

Telecommunication Networks ◽

African Continent ◽

African Countries ◽

Lte Networks ◽

Telecommunication Infrastructure ◽

Long Time ◽

Populated Region ◽

4G Lte ◽

Internet Development

The African continent is ranked second most populated region and has a huge amount of natural resources to be locally transformed or outsourced overseas. The traditional telecommunications system has helped connect people and enabled them to manage their businesses and trading in Africa for a long-time; many African countries have embarked early in changing their network and technology systems during the first years of the information age. Over a few decades ago, the introduction of new telecommunication methods and techniques have influenced much of African countries’ growth via different perspectives. The situation has triggered an enormous interest in people. They analyzed the factors supporting such changes, which in the case of this paper is all about the advent and adoption of LTE/4G-LTE technologies including its service commercialization in Africa. This review article attempts to provide an overview of 4G-LTE networks technologies and the internet; it includes the current evolution of telecommunication networks within and even beyond the African continent, assisted by the 4G-LTE expansion. An extended view is provided throughout this article’s development with respect to what could be expected (or is missing) for the sake of this continent’s telecommunication infrastructure enhancement and a better QoS to Africa’s dwellers.

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Политика администрации Д.Трампа в отношении Африки

10.18411/lj-02-2021-271 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 70 (7) ◽

pp. 101-108

Author(s):

Хлопов О.А

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Political Stability ◽

The United States ◽

Economic Cooperation ◽

African Continent ◽

African Countries ◽

Assistance Programs ◽

The Us ◽

Military Security

The article reveals the reasons for the formation and change of the US policy towards African countries during the period of the activity of the President D. Trump. The author analyzes the features and reveals the directions of US policy towards the African continent: economic cooperation, assistance programs in the field of strengthening the socio-political stability of military security and the fight against terrorism. Under the new administration of J. Biden, the United States will have to reckon with the changes taking place in Africa and revise a number of principles of selective engagement with African countries.

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