ASPIRE-2-PREVENT: a survey of lifestyle, risk factor management and cardioprotective medication in patients with coronary heart disease and people at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease in the UK

Heart ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 98 (11) ◽  
pp. 865-871 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kornelia Kotseva ◽  
Catriona S Jennings ◽  
Elizabeth L Turner ◽  
Alison Mead ◽  
Susan Connolly ◽  
...  
Author(s):  
Hannelore K. Neuhauser ◽  
Ute Ellert ◽  
Bärbel-Maria Kurth

Background Overestimation of risk by Framingham risk functions not only in southern but also in northern European populations including Germany, has led to the development of the SCORE risk estimation model. Design Data of the German National Health Interview and Examination Survey 1998 was used to determine whether SCORE leads to lower estimates of the 10-year absolute risk of fatal cardiovascular disease and fatal coronary heart disease than a Framingham model. Predicted numbers of events were compared with approximations based on national mortality statistics. Methods Inclusion criteria followed the recommendations for the use of SCORE: age 30 to 69 years, no previous history of cardiovascular disease and no markedly raised levels of single risk factors (leaving 1811 men and 1955 women for analysis). Results The SCORE model for high-risk regions (SCORE-HIGH, which is recommended for Germany pending calibration with national data) predicted the highest number of events, followed by the estimations with mortality statistics, the Framingham model and SCORE-LOW (87 fatal cardiovascular disease events versus 77, 62 and 47; fatal coronary heart disease events 62 versus 46, 46 and 30). Agreement on high-risk status, defined as the 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease of 5% or higher now or if extrapolated to age 60, was moderate for both men and women (≤ 0.52 and 0.42 for Framingham and SCORE-HIGH). Conclusions Our results suggest that SCORE-HIGH may overestimate absolute risk of fatal coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease in Germany and may need calibration. Furthermore, the limitations of current risk prediction tools emphasize the ongoing need for comprehensive, high-quality and timely European cohort data.


Hypertension ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 75 (2) ◽  
pp. 285-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flávio D. Fuchs ◽  
Paul K. Whelton

Fragmented investigation has masked the overall picture for causes of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Among the risk factors for CVD, high blood pressure (BP) is associated with the strongest evidence for causation and it has a high prevalence of exposure. Biologically, normal levels of BP are considerably lower than what has typically been characterized as normal in research and clinical practice. We propose that CVD is primarily caused by a right-sided shift in the population distribution of BP. Our view that BP is the predominant risk factor for CVD is based on conceptual postulates that have been tested in observational investigations and clinical trials. Large cohort studies have demonstrated that high BP is an important risk factor for heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease, heart valve diseases, aortic syndromes, and dementia, in addition to coronary heart disease and stroke. In multivariate modeling, the presumed attributable risk of high BP for stroke and coronary heart disease has increased steadily with progressive use of lower values for normal BP. Meta-analysis of BP-lowering randomized controlled trials has demonstrated a benefit which is almost identical to that predicted from BP risk relationships in cohort studies. Prevention of age-related increases in BP would, in large part, reduce the vascular consequences usually attributed to aging, and together with intensive treatment of established hypertension would eliminate a large proportion of the population burden of BP-related CVD.


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