Wanted dead or alive: a state-space mark–recapture–recovery model incorporating multiple recovery types and state uncertainty

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (7) ◽  
pp. 1117-1127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan J. Hostetter ◽  
Beth Gardner ◽  
Allen F. Evans ◽  
Bradley M. Cramer ◽  
Quinn Payton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Recovery Model ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Bird Colony ◽  
State Uncertainty ◽  
River Reach ◽  
Survival Studies ◽  
Bird Colonies

We developed a state-space mark–recapture–recovery model that incorporates multiple recovery types and state uncertainty to estimate survival of an anadromous fish species. We apply the model to a dataset of outmigrating juvenile steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum, 1792)) tagged with passive integrated transponders, recaptured during outmigration, and recovered on bird colonies in the Columbia River basin (2008–2014). Recoveries on bird colonies are often ignored in survival studies because the river reach of mortality is often unknown, which we model as a form of state uncertainty. Median outmigration survival from release to the lower river (river kilometre 729 to 75) ranged from 0.27 to 0.35, depending on year. Recovery probabilities were frequently ≥0.20 in the first river reach following tagging, indicating that one out of five fish that died in that reach was recovered on a bird colony. Integrating dead recovery data provided increased parameter precision, estimation of where birds consumed fish, and survival estimates across larger spatial scales. More generally, these modeling approaches provide a flexible framework to integrate multiple sources of tag recovery data into mark–recapture studies.

scholarly journals Survival rates of adult and juvenile gyrfalcons in Iceland: estimates and drivers

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e12404
Author(s):  
Frédéric Barraquand ◽  
Ólafur K. Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
Prey Density ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Juvenile Survival ◽  
Recovery Model ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Weather Effects ◽  
Main Prey ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Model Combining

Knowledge of survival rates and their potential covariation with environmental drivers, for both adults and juveniles, is paramount to forecast the population dynamics of long-lived animals. Long-lived bird and mammal populations are indeed very sensitive to change in survival rates, especially that of adults. Here we report the first survival estimates for the Icelandic gyrfalcon (Falco rusticolus) obtained by capture-mark-recapture methods. We use a mark-recapture-recovery model combining live and dead encounters into a unified analysis, in a Bayesian framework. Annual survival was estimated at 0.83 for adults and 0.40 for juveniles. Positive effects of main prey density on juvenile survival (5% increase in survival from min to max density) were possible though not likely. Weather effects on juvenile survival were even less likely. The variability in observed lifespan suggests that adult birds could suffer from human-induced alteration of survival rates.

scholarly journals Overcoming the challenges of measuring the abundance of a cryptic macropod: is a qualitative approach good enough?

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karlene Bain ◽  
Adrian Wayne ◽  
Roberta Bencini
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Relative Abundance ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Faecal Pellet ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Population Abundance ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Survey Technique ◽  
Threatened Taxa ◽  
Activity Indices

Context An understanding of population size and status is necessary for the implementation of appropriate conservation measures to recover threatened taxa. Mark–recapture studies at large spatial scales are impractical and expensive and a rapid survey technique is an attractive option to provide a measure of relative abundance for cryptic species, using indicators of activity. Aims The aim of our study was to use conventional methods for population estimation to calibrate a rapid survey technique for the quokka (Setonix brachyurus) in the southern forests of Western Australia, with a view to providing quantitative outcomes from this widely adopted monitoring approach. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of relative abundances obtained from the rapid survey technique by comparing them with abundance estimates obtained through established methods for the estimation of populations, including web-based mark–recapture and transect-based counts of activity indicators and sightings. Key results The rapid survey technique was effective at determining presence of quokkas but resulted in an over-estimation of population size because of inaccurate assumptions about occupancy and relative abundance of animals. An alternative survey method based on counts of fresh faecal-pellet groups was found to provide a more reliable and practical estimation of population abundance (R2 = 0.97). Conclusions Activity indices can be used to quantify population abundance, but only for indicators of activity that can be detected readily and for which freshness of activity can be determined. Implications Our findings suggest that a rapid survey based on activity indices can be used to evaluate quantitatively the population size of a species that is rare and potentially mobile at a landscape scale. The attraction of these techniques is that they provide a rapid and inexpensive survey option that is potentially applicable to any cryptic and/or threatened species and is practical for resource-constrained land managers.

A multistate mark–recapture approach to characterize stream fish movement at multiple spatial scales

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (6) ◽  
pp. 1090-1100
Author(s):  
Yoichiro Kanno ◽  
Naoki Yui ◽  
Wataru Mamiya ◽  
Rei Sakai ◽  
Yuri Yabuhara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antenna Arrays ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Movement Patterns ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Multiple Spatial Scales ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Salvelinus Leucomaenis ◽  
Long Distance Movement

We studied movement of a native salmonid, white-spotted char (Salvelinus leucomaenis), in a 1-km tributary in northern Hokkaido, Japan, in May–July 2018. Based on physical mark–recapture of 501 unique individuals and detection by mobile PIT antenna over monthly intervals, a majority of fish (70%–80%) stayed within 60 m of previously released locations, demonstrating what appeared to be restricted movement patterns. However, fixed PIT antenna data showed that as much as 17% of marked individuals emigrated from the study area during the 2-month study period. Probability of emigration did not depend on where in the 1-km segment individuals had been released, indicating that emigration likely represented long-distance movement. Once emigrants made a decision to emigrate, they left the tributary within 1–3 median days by moving downstream in a unidirectional manner, based on detections at a total of three antenna arrays deployed throughout the tributary. Our multiscale analysis provided strong support for co-existence of short- and long-distance movement patterns, and we conclude that movement data at multiple spatial scales complement each other to characterize population-scale movement.

A Bayesian state–space mark–recapture model to estimate exploitation rates in mixed-stock fisheries

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 321-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine G.J Michielsens ◽  
Murdoch K McAllister ◽  
Sakari Kuikka ◽  
Tapani Pakarinen ◽  
Lars Karlsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Fishing Effort ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Observation Process ◽  
Mixed Stock ◽  
Reporting Rates

A Bayesian state–space mark–recapture model is developed to estimate the exploitation rates of fish stocks caught in mixed-stock fisheries. Expert knowledge and published results on biological parameters, reporting rates of tags and other key parameters, are incorporated into the mark–recapture analysis through elaborations in model structure and the use of informative prior probability distributions for model parameters. Information on related stocks is incorporated through the use of hierarchical structures and parameters that represent differences between the stock in question and related stocks. Fishing mortality rates are modelled using fishing effort data as covariates. A state–space formulation is adopted to account for uncertainties in system dynamics and the observation process. The methodology is applied to wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) stocks from rivers located in the northeastern Baltic Sea that are exploited by a sequence of mixed- and single-stock fisheries. Estimated fishing mortality rates for wild salmon are influenced by prior knowledge about tag reporting rates and salmon biology and, to a limited extent, by prior assumptions about exploitation rates.

scholarly journals State-space modeling of multidecadal mark–recapture data reveals low adult dispersal in a nursery-dependent fish metapopulation

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (2) ◽  
pp. 342-354
Author(s):  
Jean-Baptiste Lecomte ◽  
Olivier Le Pape ◽  
Hélène Baillif ◽  
Marie Nevoux ◽  
Youen Vermard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Population Substructure ◽  
English Channel ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Homogeneous Population ◽  
Space Modeling ◽  
Adult Dispersal ◽  
Common Sole

Quantifying connectivity within fish metapopulations is an important component in understanding population dynamics and providing an evidence base for assessment and management. We investigate metapopulation connectivity of the common sole (Solea solea) in the Eastern English Channel (EEC). The EEC common sole stock is currently assessed as a single and spatially homogeneous population, but connectivity induced through adult movements within this stock and with nearby stocks remains unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we developed a state-space mark–recovery model, designed to estimate adult connectivity using mark–recapture data from multiple release experiments from 1970 to 2018 across the EEC and adjacent management areas. The model estimates seasonal fish movements between five predefined areas, Western English Channel, Eastern English Channel (split into three discrete sub-areas), and North Sea. Over 32 000 fish were tagged, 4036 of which were recovered via fisheries. Our results suggest minimal large-scale adult movements between these areas; movements among spatial units within the EEC were very low with even lower levels of immigration from areas adjoining the EEC. Our results support the hypothesis of segregated populations within the EEC. The importance of accommodating population substructure in the fisheries management is considered.

Bayesian Methods for Estimating Animal Abundance at Large Spatial Scales Using Data from Multiple Sources

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumen Dey ◽  
Mohan Delampady ◽  
Ravishankar Parameshwaran ◽  
N. Samba Kumar ◽  
Arjun Srivathsa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Animal Abundance ◽  
Using Data

scholarly journals State-space mark-recapture estimates reveal a recent decline in abundance of North Atlantic right whales

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (21) ◽  
pp. 8730-8741 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard M. Pace ◽  
Peter J. Corkeron ◽  
Scott D. Kraus
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Right Whales ◽  
North Atlantic Right Whales

scholarly journals Estimating Detection Probablities of River Birds using Double Surveys

The Auk ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 123 (3) ◽  
pp. 695-707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Fletcher ◽  
Richard L. Hutto
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Rapid Assessment ◽  
Mass Detection ◽  
Information Theoretic ◽  
Modeling Process ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Survey Technique ◽  
River Reach ◽  
Viable Method ◽  
Combined Detection

AbstractWe describe a method for surveying birds in river habitats that allows for rapid assessment across broad spatial scales and estimation of detection probabilities. Our river survey approach incorporates a double-survey technique, whereby observers in two canoes simultaneously survey birds along a river reach. Data are in the form of a two-sample mark-recapture history, and covariates suspected of influencing detection probabilities can be included in the modeling process and evaluated using information-theoretic approaches. We provide an example using the method along the Madison and upper Missouri rivers in Montana. Overall, detection probabilities for each observer ranged from 57% to 89%, and combined detection probabilities (the likelihood of at least one observer detecting an individual) were consistently high (88% across all species). Detection probabilities across species were positively correlated with body mass. Detection probabilities for some species were influenced by observer, river conditions, and whether species were in groups or alone; groups were more detectable, and individuals in slow-flowing and wide sections of river were more detectable. Boat-based double surveys are a viable method for estimating detection probabilities of birds in river habitats, and double surveys should be considered in other aquaticEstimaciones de Probabilidades de Detección de Aves de Río Utilizando Muestreos Dobles systems.

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