Water-level fluctuations in Lake Ontario over the last 4000 years as recorded in the Cataraqui River lagoon, Kingston, Ontario

1990 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 1330-1338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert W. Dalrymple ◽  
John S. Carey

The modern sediments in the Cataraqui River lagoon and marsh (Kingston, Ontario) consist of mixtures of organic material and clayey silts, the organic content of which increases as water depth decreases; gyttjas are accumulating in the deeper water parts of the lagoon, whereas peat is the dominant sediment in the very shallow water portion of the lagoon (< 0.7 m) and in the adjacent marsh. Cores show that one partial (modern) and two complete depositional cycles (gyttja passing upwards into peat) have formed within the last 4000 years. The contact between cycles (gyttja over peat) is abrupt. These cycles are interpreted as resulting from fluctuations in the level of Lake Ontario about the long-term rising trend. Radiocarbon dates show that relatively low levels prevailed from 4100 to 3300 BP and from 2300 to 1900 BP; rapid rises in water level, which are indicated by the abrupt contact between cycles, occurred at 3300–3100 BP and some time between 2000 and 1500 BP. These water-level changes are synchronous with those shown by other studies in Lake Ontario and with century-scale paleoclimatic events. The high stands correlate with wet periods, and perhaps also with warm periods in the eastern part of the Great Lakes basin, but an inverse relationship between precipitation and temperature in the western Great Lakes suggests that the Great Lakes basin does not respond uniformly to climatic changes.

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 239-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. McBean ◽  
H. Motiee

Abstract. In the threshold of the appearance of global warming from theory to reality, extensive research has focused on predicting the impact of potential climate change on water resources using results from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This research carries this further by statistical analyses of long term meteorological and hydrological data. Seventy years of historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes of North America are developed using long term regression analyses and Mann-Kendall statistics. The results generated by the two statistical procedures are in agreement and demonstrate that many of these variables are experiencing statistically significant increases over a seven-decade period. The trend lines of streamflows in the three rivers of St. Clair, Niagara and St. Lawrence, and precipitation levels over four of the five Great Lakes, show statistically significant increases in flows and precipitation. Further, precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are higher than GCM predictions for Lakes Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted. Given the general agreement as derived from very different procedures, predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs, there is evidence that hydrologic changes particularly for the precipitation in the Great Lakes Basin may be demonstrating influences arising from global warming and climate change.


1970 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 628-633 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. H. Clark ◽  
N. P. Persoage

Movements of the earth's crust causing progressive changes in the levels of large bodies of water relative to their shorelines may influence the formulation of water resource projects and/or their continuing effectiveness with time. In the Great Lakes basin there is evidence of an uplift of the earth's crust, of about 1 ft per 100 y, in the northeasterly part of the basin relative to that in the southwest. This results in a corresponding lowering of water levels along the northeasterly shorelines and a rise in water levels along the southwest shores. In at least two of the lakes, Lake Huron and Lake Ontario, the average depth of water will change with time. In Lake Huron, it will gradually decrease because the bed underlying the lake is rising with respect to the lake outlet. In Lake Ontario, the depth of water will increase since the lake outlet is rising with respect to the remainder of the lake. This paper reviews some of the engineering implications of the relative rates of crustal movement in the Great Lakes region on long-term management of the water levels of the Great Lakes.


Wetlands ◽  
1984 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
James C. Kelley ◽  
Thomas M. Burton ◽  
William R. Enslin

1988 ◽  
Vol 25 (8) ◽  
pp. 1175-1183 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. E. Flint ◽  
R. W. Dalrymple ◽  
J. J. Flint

The sequence of units (from the base up) in the Sixteen Mile Creek lagoon (Lake Ontario) mimics the longitudinal sequence of surficial environments: pink silt—overbank (flood plain – dry marsh); bottom sand—stream channel and beach; orange silt—marsh; gyttja—wet marsh and very shallow (deltaic) lagoon; and brown and grey clay—open-water lagoon. This entire sequence accumulated over the last 4200 years under slowly deepening, transgressive conditions caused by the isostatic rise of the lake outlet. Land clearing by European settlers dramatically increased the supply of clastic sediment and terminated the deposition of the organic-rich silty clays (gyttja) that make up most of the lagoon fill.Because the gyttja and beach sand are interpreted to have accumulated in water depths of less than 0.5 m, the elevation–time plot of 14C dates from these units can be used to reconstruct a very closely constrained lake-level curve. The data indicate that water levels have risen at an average rate of 0.25 cm/a over the last 3300 years as a result of differential, isostatic rebound. Superimposed on this trend are water-level oscillations with amplitudes on the order of 1 m and periods of several hundred years. These oscillations are synchronous and in phase with water-level fluctuations in Lake Michigan, and with a variety of other climatic variations in North America and Europe. We propose, therefore, that the water-level oscillations are a result of long-term, climatically produced variations in precipitation in the Great Lakes drainage basin.


Eos ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terri Cook

A new modeling framework offers insight into how specific lakes' water levels respond to short- and long-term climate trends.


Author(s):  
Jacques Walumona ◽  
Boaz Arara ◽  
Cyprian Ogombe ◽  
James Murakaru ◽  
Phillip Raburu ◽  
...  

The study was conducted in Lake Baringo and determined quantitative relationships between water level changes, water quality, and fishery production for informed lake basin management. Long-term (2008 to 2020) data on water level, water quality, and fisheries yields from Lake Baringo were analyzed using a combination of statistical methods. Linear and waveform regression analyses described patterns of lake level fluctuations over time while, Pearson’s correlation determined the concordance of lake level changes with water quality parameters, landings, and condition of fish species. PCA results grouped the study period into different years based on annual water quality variable levels. LOWESS analysis showed the decline of annual lake level amplitude over time with peak values in 1964 (8.6 m) and 2008 (9.4 m). The waveform regression significantly modeled lake level fluctuations as indexed by annual deviations from the long-term average (DLTM) and showed a 20-year oscillation between peak water levels in the lake. There were significant positive correlations of Water Level Fluctuations (WLFs) with water quality variables and water quality index (WQI) in Lake Baringo. Linear regression analyses showed a significant concordance (p < 0.05) between the annual fishery yield and the rising WLFs (r = 0.66). Overall, the results demonstrate that WLFs of Lake Baringo are a driver of fish species biomass and physico-chemical properties of the lake. We recommend the integration of fisheries yields, water quality assessment, and WLFs modeling at different temporal scales in the management of Afrotropical lake ecosystems


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald J. Niemi ◽  
Robert W. Howe ◽  
Brian R. Sturtevant ◽  
Linda R. Parker ◽  
Alexis R. Grinde ◽  
...  

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