Maternal age, fecundity, egg quality, and recruitment: linking stock structure to recruitment using an age-structured Ricker model

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (10) ◽  
pp. 1631-1641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew O. Shelton ◽  
Stephan B. Munch ◽  
David Keith ◽  
Marc Mangel
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Maternal Age ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Egg Quality ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Ricker Model ◽  
Icelandic Population ◽  
Spawning Stock ◽  
Age Structured

Understanding the process of recruitment is fundamental to fisheries biology and management. However, recruitment in natural populations is highly variable and rarely well described by classical stock–recruitment relationships (SRRs). Recent analyses suggest that the age composition of the spawning biomass may play an important role in the mismatch between SRRs and data. Here we develop a generalization of the Ricker SRR that incorporates age structure by allowing mortality and fecundity rates to depend on maternal age. We provide a flexible SRR with biologically interpretable parameters that can be estimated from existing fisheries time series and use a Bayesian framework that enables parameters to be informed by experimental data. We apply our method to the Icelandic population of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ) and show models that include age structure effects outperform the classical Ricker SRR that ignores age structure. Our results indicate a strong effect of spawning stock age structure on recruitment dynamics in this population. Our approach provides a biologically interpretable and immediately applicable method for investigating the consequences for spawning stock age structure on recruitment.

The role of spawning stock in formation of recruitment of northeast atlantic cod Gadus morhua

2006 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. M. Borisov ◽  
A. A. Elizarov ◽  
V. D. Nesterov
Keyword(s):  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Northeast Atlantic ◽  
Spawning Stock

The influence of spatially variable and connected recruitment on complex stock dynamics and its ecological and management implications

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (6) ◽  
pp. 937-949 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisha Guan ◽  
Yong Chen ◽  
James A. Wilson ◽  
Timothy Waring ◽  
Lisa A. Kerr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Gulf Of Maine ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Management Implications ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Stock Biomass ◽  
Spawning Stock ◽  
The Individual

To evaluate the influence of spatially variable and connected recruitments at spawning component scale on complex stock dynamics, a typical agent-based complex stock was modeled based on the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock in the Gulf of Maine. We simulated three scenarios with different degrees of connectivity (i.e., individual exchange) between the spatially variable recruitments of 36 spawning components within four subpopulations under the stock. Subsequently, the temporal trends were compared for different scenarios in age-1 recruitment, spawning stock biomass, and local depletion proportion of the overall complex stock and the individual subpopulations. Results show that increased recruitment connectivity from 0.1–0.2 to 0.6–0.8 between various components tends to increase the productivity and stability of a complex stock at local and global scales and reduce the proportion of depleted components due to overfishing. Moreover, depletions of less productive components may occur without a substantial reduction in the overall complex stock biomass and recruitment.

Influence of growth and survival costs of reproduction on Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, population growth rate

1999 ◽  
Vol 56 (9) ◽  
pp. 1612-1623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A Hutchings
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Individual Growth ◽  
Growth And Survival ◽  
Individual Growth Rate ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Reproductive Rates

A stochastic, age-structured life history model was used to examine how age at maturity (theta), pre- (Zimm) and postreproductive (Zmat) mortality, and postreproductive growth rate can affect maximum reproductive rates of fish at low population size. Simulations suggest that annual (r) and per-generation (R0) metrics of population growth for Newfoundland's northern Grand Bank Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, are primarily influenced by changes to mortality prior to and following reproduction. At observed weights at age and Zmat = 0.2, r ranged between 0.135 and 0.164 for cod maturing at between 4 and 7 years. Incremental increases in either Zimm or Zmat of 0.1 were associated with 0.03-0.05 reductions in r. To effect similar reductions, individual growth rate would have to decline by approximately one half. At observed weights at age, increases in Zmat from 0.20 to 0.45 increased the probability of negative per-generation growth from 3 to 26% for cod maturing at 4 years and from 6 to 46% for cod maturing at 7 years. Thus, even in the absence of fishing mortality, little or no population growth by Atlantic cod may not be unexpected in the presence of environmental stochasticity, particularly when accompanied by increases in mortality and declining individual growth.

scholarly journals Systematic bias in estimates of reproductive potential of an Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock: implications for stock–recruit theory and management

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
pp. 980-994 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Tara Marshall ◽  
Coby L Needle ◽  
Anders Thorsen ◽  
Olav Sigurd Kjesbu ◽  
Nathalia A Yaragina
Keyword(s):  
Egg Production ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Reproductive Potential ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Stock Status ◽  
Relative Fecundity ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Spawning Stock

Stock–recruit relationships that use spawning stock biomass (SSB) to represent reproductive potential assume that the proportion of SSB composed of females and the relative fecundity (number of eggs produced per unit mass) are both constant over time. To test these two assumptions, female-only spawner biomass (FSB) and total egg production (TEP) were estimated for the Northeast Arctic stock of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) over a 56-year time period. The proportion of females (FSB/SSB) varied between 24% and 68%, and the variation was systematic with length such that SSB became more female-biased as the mean length of spawners increased. Relative fecundity of the stock (TEP/SSB) varied between 115 and 355 eggs·g–1 and was significantly, positively correlated with mean length of spawners. Both FSB and TEP gave a different interpretation of the recruitment response to reductions in stock size (overcompensatory) compared with that obtained using SSB (either compensatory or depensatory). There was no difference between SSB and FSB in the assessment of stock status; however, in recent years (1980–2001) TEP fell below the threshold level at which recruitment becomes impaired more frequently than did SSB. This suggests that using SSB as a measure of stock reproductive potential could lead to overly optimistic assessments of stock status.

Gear-independent patterns of variation in catch of juvenile Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in coastal habitats

1998 ◽  
Vol 55 (6) ◽  
pp. 1430-1442 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A Methven ◽  
David C Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Cohort Size ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Coastal Habitats ◽  
Stock Biomass ◽  
Spawning Stock ◽  
Depth Gradients ◽  
Spatial Depth

Habitat and size of juvenile Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) change substantially during the first 3 years after settlement, and hence, cohort size cannot be followed using a single gear. We investigated whether catch could be calibrated across gear types by deploying pairs of gears repeatedly in the same habitat. As expected, size selectivity differed substantially among gears. Trawls and seines generally collected individuals <200 mm. Gillnets and jiggers collected individuals >150 mm. Size modes, corresponding to age-classes, were common to catches of most gears. Highest catches were taken by trawls and seines. Gillnet catches were orders of magnitude lower. Standardized catches could not be calibrated across pairs of gears deployed in the same habitat at approximately the same time. However, it was possible to identify spatial depth gradients and diel changes in catch that were independent of gear. Consistent spatial and temporal patterns across gears were interpreted as characteristic of fish populations, not just of gears. Density in coastal habitats was higher at night and was higher at 4-7 m than at greater depths. These results, in conjunction with other studies, establish that coastal depths of 4-7 m represent the centre, and not the edge, of the distribution of age 0 cod in Newfoundland during autumn. Hence nursery areas during the early 1990s, a time of historically low spawning stock biomass, must be identified as the coastal zone, not offshore.

scholarly journals Maternal age effects on Atlantic cod recruitment and implications for future population trajectories

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (6) ◽  
pp. 1769-1778 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Olaf Shelton ◽  
Jeffrey A. Hutchings ◽  
Robin S. Waples ◽  
David M. Keith ◽  
H. Resit Akçakaya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Maternal Age ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Basic Question ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Effect Of Age

Abstract Exploited fish populations frequently exhibit truncated age-structure. To address a basic question in fisheries science and conservation biology—how does age truncation affect population dynamics and productivity?—we explored the effect of age-structure on recruitment dynamics of ten stocks of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Based on six alternative stock–recruitment relationships, we compared models that included and excluded maternal age-structure effects on recruitment. In all ten stocks, a recruitment model that included a maternal age-dependent effect was preferred over the standard Ricker model and in seven of the ten stocks, the preferred statistical model included a positive effect of either maternal age or mass on recruitment. Simulations comparing standard and maternal age dependent recruitment two decades into the future suggest that the inclusion of maternal age in recruitment models has little effect on projected biomasses. However, this similarity in biomass trajectory masked an increased sensitivity of populations with maternal age-dependent recruitment to stock age-structure. In particular, simulations with maternal age-dependent recruitment responded strongly to changes in fishing mortality on the oldest age classes, while simulations using standard recruitment models did not. Populations with maternal age-dependent recruitment can exhibit increased biomass catch even if fishing mortality on older individuals was reduced. Overall, simulations suggested that the influence of maternal age on population dynamics are more nuanced than suggested by previous research and indicate that careful consideration of the effects of age-structure on populations may lead to substantially different fisheries management reference points—particularly with respect to age-specific fishing mortality—than classical models. While these results suggest a link between maternal age and population productivity, future research requires the incorporation of biologically reasonable and empirically defensible mechanisms to clarify the effect of age on population dynamics.

Estimating and testing non-additivity in fishing mortality: implications for detecting a fisheries collapse

2002 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 597-601 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ransom A Myers ◽  
Terrance J Quinn II
Keyword(s):  
Population Model ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Catch Per Unit Effort ◽  
Structured Population Model ◽  
Structured Population ◽  
Powerful Approach ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Age Structured Model

Common in many fisheries collapses is a disproportionate increase in fishing mortality at younger ages. One mechanism by which this increase could occur is sufficient depletion of the population at older ages due to strong overfishing, which leads to targeting of younger fish. Thus, it is essential for assessments to estimate and test for a change in selectivity in the fishery. We introduce a simple and powerful approach based upon Tukey's one degree of freedom test for non-additivity. This approach can be applied within any statistical age-structured population model that estimates selectivity. We illustrate the approach with data from Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from St. Pierre Bank, Canada. The results show significant non-additivity in fishing mortality that translates into an increase in selectivity on younger ages when fishing mortality is high. This approach also can be applied to the output of an age-structured model that assumes catch-at-age is known without error or to any survey or catch-per-unit-effort data for which estimates of abundance are made by year and age. We believe that this approach should be routinely applied in assessments, particularly when overfishing has led to depletion of the overall population or to truncation of the age structure.

Life history consequences of overexploitation to population recovery in Northwest Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 824-832 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A Hutchings
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Life History Traits ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Hatching Rate ◽  
Northwest Atlantic ◽  
Annual Population ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Negative Impacts

Changes to life history traits are often concomitant with prolonged periods of exploitation. In the Northwest Atlantic, 30- to 40-year declines of more than 90% of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) have been associated with significant reductions in age and length at maturity, changes most parsimoniously explained as genetic responses to fishing. Increased survival costs of reproduction associated with earlier maturity, resulting in higher natural mortality and shorter life span, negatively affect population growth rate and rate of recovery. Coupled with lower hatching rate among first-time spawners and smaller size at maturity, a modest reduction in age from 6 to 4 years can reduce annual population growth in Atlantic cod by 25%–30%, based on the output of a stochastic, age-structured life history model. Earlier maturity more than doubles the probability of negative population growth every generation. These results underscore the potential for fishing-induced changes to life history traits alone to generate slow or negligible recovery in marine fishes, exacerbating negative impacts on population growth resulting from ecosystem-level alterations to interspecific competition and predation.

Why the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock off eastern Nova Scotia has not recovered

2001 ◽  
Vol 58 (8) ◽  
pp. 1613-1623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caihong Fu ◽  
Robert Mohn ◽  
L Paul Fanning
Keyword(s):  
Nova Scotia ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Commercial Fishing ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Structured Population ◽  
Population Dynamics Model ◽  
Structured Population Dynamics ◽  
Age Structured

An age-structured population dynamics model, incorporating interactions between Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), the fishery, and the grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) population, was applied to the cod stock off eastern Nova Scotia (Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization Divisions 4Vs and 4W, commonly abbreviated to 4VsW), a stock that has dramatically declined since the late 1980s. Mortality was modeled as having three components: fishing mortality (F), seal predation (Mp), and all other sources of natural mortality (M). Specifically, M was assumed to be distinct for immature cod (ages 1–4; Mi) and mature cod (age 5 and older; Mm), and respective annual variations were estimated. Parameters estimated also included recruitment (cod abundance at age 1; R), F, and Mp. Based on our estimates of F, Mp, and M, it is unlikely that the collapse of the 4VsW cod stock can be attributed to a sudden increase in M; fishing appears to have been the primary cause for the stock's decline. However, after the moratorium on commercial fishing in 1993, increasing Mp and Mm and low R may have contributed to the failure of the 4VsW cod stock to recover.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document