Impact of Agriculture Factor and Non-Agriculture Factor to Value of Food Production: Cast Study of Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines Period 2010-2019

Food production provides an overview of developing a country's agriculture resilience and food security. Several factors can affect food production. They can be divided into agriculture factors and non-agriculture factors. This research aims to find agricultural and non-agricultural factors affecting food production. We assume the food production with a used average value of food production. A quantitative approach using a panel data model approach using for this research. The data used is secondary data. The results are that the factors that can affect food production with a used average value of food production are dependent variables. In this research, we used independent variables as follows agriculture land are, agriculture value-added, employment in the agriculture sector, credit to agriculture, and control variable. Control variables used in this research are annual population, gross domestic product, and political stability. This research is based on Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines. We used data panel regression for estimating the model, the data period used is in the period 2010-2019. This study provides recommendations that in increasing the optimization of food production, it is necessary to plan for value-added, empower workers, suppress population growth, and political stability.

Estimating abundance of a recovering transboundary brown bear population with capture-recapture models

Abundance of small populations of large mammals may be assessed using complete counts of the different individuals detected over a time period, so-called minimum detected size (MDS). However, as population is growing larger and its distribution is expanding wider, the risk of under-estimating population size using MDS is increasing sharply due to the rarely fulfilled assumption of perfect detection of all individuals of the population, and as a result, the need to report uncertainty in population size estimates becomes crucial. We addressed these issues within the framework of the monitoring of the critically endangered Pyrenean brown bear population that was on the edge of extinction in the mid-1990s with only five individuals remaining, but was reinforced by 11 bears originated from Slovenia since then. We used Pollock's closed robust design (PCRD) capture-recapture models applied to the cross-border non-invasive sampling data from France, Spain and Andorra to provide the first published annual abundance estimates of the Pyrenean brown bear population and its trends over time. Annual population size increased and displayed a fivefold rise between 2008 and 2020, reaching > 60 individuals in 2020. Detection heterogeneity among individuals may stem from intraspecific home range size disparities making it more likely to find signs of individuals who move more. We found a lower survival rate in cubs than in adults and subadults, since the formers suffer from more mortality risks (such as infanticides, predations, mother death or abandonments) than the latters. Our study provides evidence that the PCRD capture-recapture modelling approach can provide reliable estimates of the size of and trend in large mammal populations, while minimizing bias due to inter-individual heterogeneity in detection probabilities and allowing the quantification of sampling uncertainty surrounding these estimates. Such information is vital for informing management decision-making and assessing population conservation status.

Socio-Environmental Vulnerability of Water in the Estuary of the Metropolitan Region of Santos (Brazil)

Santos and São Vicente Estuarine Complex (SSEC) is a densely populated coastal area that houses the main port in Latin America and the most prominent Brazilian industrial complex. Irregular occupations in preservation areas result in a disorderly increase in population, with negative social and environmental impacts. We evaluated the average annual growth of 74 slums occurring in this area and variations in water quality from 2005 to 2018. We monitor the growth of the occupied areas and estimate their respective populations. The average annual population growth was over 6% per year (p.a.). Invasions of new areas and verticalisation of already occupied areas represent 85% of the growth seen. The monthly polluting loads exceeded 450 tonnes or 2,086,000 m3, compromising the waters and local and regional public health. We strongly recommend re-urbanising the area using the resource savings caused by water loss to reduce the risks of ecosystem degradation, damage to health and disease spread.

Trends in Childhood Poison Exposures and Fatalities: A Retrospective Secondary Data Analysis of the 2009–2019 U.S. National Poison Data System Annual Reports

Despite significant prevention efforts, childhood poison exposures remain a serious public health challenge in the United States. This study aimed to assess annual trends of pharmaceutical vs. non-pharmaceutical poison exposures in the US among children 0–19 years and compare the odds of death by children’s age group. Poison exposure and fatality data were retrospectively extracted from 2009 to 2019 National Poison Data System (NPDS) annual reports for children in all reported age groups. Overall, there was a significant reduction in the annual population-adjusted poison exposures in children (annual percentage change = −2.54%, 95% CI = −3.94% to −1.15%, p < 0.01), but not in poisoning-related fatalities. Children 0–5 had similar odds of dying from exposure to non-pharmaceuticals vs. pharmaceuticals. The odds of children 6–12 dying from non-pharmaceuticals vs. pharmaceuticals was 2.38 (95% CI = 1.58, 3.58), χ2 = 18.53, p < 0.001. In contrast, the odds of children 13–19 dying from pharmaceuticals vs. non-pharmaceuticals was 3.04 (95% CI = 2.51, 3.69), χ2 = 141.16, p < 0.001. Suicidal intent accounted for 40.63% of pharmaceutical deaths in children 6–12, as well as 48.66% of pharmaceutical and 31.15% of non-pharmaceutical deaths in children 13–19. While a significant decline in overall childhood poison exposures was reported, a decrease in poisoning-related fatalities was not observed. Children in different age groups had contrasting relative odds of death from pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical exposures. Among older children, a greater proportion of poisoning-related deaths was due to intentional suicide. These findings provide evidence of age-specific trends in childhood poison exposure risk and directions for future poison prevention efforts and behavioral health partnerships.

Host in reserve: the role of common shrews (Sorex araneus) as a stable supplementary source of tick hosts in small mammal communities influenced by rodent population cycles

In recent decades, warming temperatures and changes in land use are supposed to have enabled several tick species to expand their distribution limit northwards. The progression of ticks to new areas may introduce new and emerging tick-borne pathogens as well as increase existing diseases. Aside from climatic conditions, ticks are dependent on hosts for survival, and rodents often act as important hosts for ticks and as pathogen reservoirs. At northern latitudes, rodents often undergo multi-annual population cycles, and the periodic absence of hosts may inhibit the further progression of ticks. We investigated the potential role of common shrews (Sorex araneus) to serve as a stable host source to immature life stages of a generalist tick Ixodes ricinus and a specialist tick I. trianguliceps, during decreasing abundances of bank voles (Myodes glareolus). We tested whether ticks would have a propensity to parasitize a certain host type dependent on host population size and composition in two high latitude locations in southern Norway, by comparing tick burdens on trapped animals. We found that I. ricinus larvae showed an equal propensity to parasitize both host types as the host population composition changed, but voles had a higher level of parasitism by nymphs (p< 0.004). An overall larger host population size favored the parasitism of voles by larvae (p= 0.027), but not by nymphs (p= 0.074). I. trianguliceps larvae showed a higher propensity to parasitize shrews, regardless of host population size or composition (p= 0.004), while nymphs parasitized shrews more as vole abundance increased (p= 0.002). The results indicate that common shrews may have the potential to act as a replacement host during periods of low rodent availability, but long-term observations encompassing complete rodent cycles may determine whether shrews are able to maintain tick range expansion despite low rodent availability.

Multivariate analysis of medical and economic factors in the spread of socially significant diseases (on the example of the Khabarovsk Territory)

Methodological approaches to determining the possible social conditioning of certain diseases are considered. The method is based on studying the distribution of the disease under study in the population using factor analysis tools. The average annual population incidence of diseases in the administrative districts of the Khabarovsk Territory has been determined. The socio-economic characteristics of the districts of the remote region of Russia have been studied. The matrix obtained in the course of the study is used for regression analysis, which makes it possible to determine the degree of influence of social factors on the features of the territorial distribution of the disease under study. The use of the multiple regression method in a population-epidemiological study showed that socio-economic factors have a significant impact on the territorial spread of tuberculosis, sexually transmitted diseases, chronic alcoholism and drug addiction, but not on the spread of malignant neoplasms.

ANALYSIS VISIBILITY PARK AND RIDE TANGERANG DISTRICT (case study Cisauk Station)

<p>Tangerang Regency is an area located in Tatar Pasundan, Banten Province, Indonesia. This area is located 30 km west of Jakarta and 90 km southeast of Serang. With an annual population growth rate of ± 2.15 percent, the total population of Tangerang Regency in 2020 is ± 2,838,621 according to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of South Tangerang Regency. South Tangerang Regency which has an area of 959.6 kilometers. This research was conducted to determine the feasibility level of the Park and Ride development plan in Tangerang Regency. Traffic counting surveys and interviews were carried out on main road sections which were then processed using Microsoft Excel to determine the parking accumulation until the fluctuation of motorbikes and cars was known. Furthermore, the interview data is processed to determine the amount of public interest in the development of Park and Ride which is reviewed based on gender, age, trip duration, trip intent, parking duration, monthly fuel expenditures, desired parking rates and those who agree to use Park and Ride when the survey was conducted. at 06.00-21.00 WIB on the road in the Cisauk Station area. From the results of processing this data using Microsoft Excel, it was found that the characteristics of Park and Ride facilities users and also the number of users of Park and Ride facilities for motorbikes were 2349, while for cars of 272 with a plan age until 2021, this proves there is a need for increased interest in motorbikes. Park and Ride development at Cisauk Station, Tangerang Regency.</p>

The Epidemiologic Characteristics of Malignant Mesothelioma Cases in Korea: Findings of the Asbestos Injury Relief System from 2011–2015

(1) Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of malignant mesothelioma in Korea by investigating cases compensated under the asbestos injury relief system. (2) Methods: A total of 407 compensated cases between 2011 and 2015 were reviewed using medical records and resident registrations in order to investigate the dates of diagnosis and death. Asbestos exposure and patients’ general characteristics were investigated through face-to-face interviews. The standardized incidence ratio was calculated as the number of observations from 2005 to 2014 per exposure region in Korea, using the mid-annual population of each region in 2009 as the standard population. (3) Results: Among the 407 cases, 65.1% were male. The pleura and peritoneum were affected in 76.9% and 23.1% of cases, respectively. For peritoneal mesothelioma, the median survival duration was longer (p = 0.005), and the proportion of affected women was higher than that in pleural mesothelioma. The standardized incidence ratio (95% CI) by province of primary exposure was Chungnam 3.33 (2.51–4.35), Ulsan 1.85 (0.97–3.21), and Seoul 1.32 (1.06–1.63). (4) Conclusions: Although the representativeness of the data is limited, it is sufficient to assume the epidemiologic characteristics of malignant mesothelioma, help improve the compensation system, and contribute to future policies.

POPULATION FORECAST WITH THE DATA PROCESSING GROUP METHOD (GMDH) type NEURAL NETWORK FOR EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES

Population is a critically important factor in a country's planning, policy making, and setting its social and economic goals. Population estimation and planning in advance are of great importance for policy makers, since the natural resources, which are the production areas where people can meet their basic needs, are limited and they need to protect the areas they live in in order to continue their lives. In this study, the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) type Neural Network (NN) approach was used for the annual population estimation of 27 European Union (EU) countries (Germany, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Cyprus, Croatia, Netherlands, Ireland, Spain, Sweden, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovak Republic, Greece). The data set was obtained from the World Data Bank and analyzed using data from the years 1960 - 2020. The test performances obtained are generally below 10% of the Root Mean Square Percentage Error (RMSPE). The coefficient of determination (R^2) is above 0.90 and generally around 0.99. In addition, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value is below 10%. According to these values, it is concluded that the model predicts extremely accurately. In addition, the analysis was compared with the 2021 - 2032 forecast values in the World Bank Database. According to the findings and comparison results, it has been concluded that the GMDH type Neural Network is a very good approach for the annual population estimation of 27 EU countries, it has almost exactly the same results with the real values in the past years, therefore it is consistent and successful in its predictions for the future years.

Longitudinal demographic data collection

Several long-term field studies are running worldwide on many taxa across the Tree of Life. These longitudinal studies involve several visits to the study population with repeated observations/measurements. Demographic data can be collected at the population level (e.g. time series of population counts) or at the individual level (e.g. monitoring of marked and/or georeferenced individuals throughout their life). These data are then used to estimate demographic parameters such as annual population abundances, survival, growth, and reproductive rates. This chapter introduces the reader to monitoring methods (including recent technologies) that can be implemented in the field to collect specific demographic data on mobile species (e.g. birds, mammals) at both the population and individual levels, while dealing with imperfect detection. It also presents the procedures and the type of demographic data that can be collected on sessile species (e.g. corals, plants) at both levels. Finally, the chapter concludes with new aspects, current biases, and arising challenges for future long-term field studies.